Concepts of Futures Studies ?????: ??????????????? ???

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Concepts of Futures Studies?????
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• ??? ???
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• http//mail.tku.edu.tw/086138/

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References

1. Bell, Wendell, Foundations of Futures Studies
   Human Science for a New Era, Volume 1,
   Transaction Publishers, 1997. ????
2. http//encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Futurolo
   gy (http//www.thefreedictionary.com/)
   ????

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• Futurology (futures studies) is the study of the
  medium to long-term future trends. Extrapolation
  (??) is just one of many dozens of methods and
  techniques used in futures research (as
  scenarios, Delphi method, brainstorming,
  morphology (????) and others). Futurology also
  includes normative (?????) or preferred futures,
  but the real contribution is to connect both
  extrapolated (exploratory) and normative research
  to explore better strategies. 2
• The Delphi method is a technique aimed at
  building an agreement, or consensus  about an
  opinion or view, without necessarily having
  people meet face to face, such as through
  surveys, questionaires, emails etc.
• A normative statement, on the other hand, is a
  statement regarding how things should or ought to
  be.

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What are the purposes of futures studies? 1

• to discover or invent, examine and evaluate,
  and propose possible, probable and preferable
  futures. The futures field is an integrative
  science of reasoning, choosing, and acting.,
  p111
• the study(of ethical foundations) and
  fostering of deep caring about the freedom and
  welfare of future generations are among the most
  important purposes of future studies., p88

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Lasswells 5 tasks for projecting the future
p49, 1 , QA

1. The clarification of goals and values (???)
2. The description of trends
3. The explanation of conditions (or, the
   description of assumptions)
4. The projection of possible and probable futures
   (or consequences) for intended policies
5. The value evaluation of consequences and
   selection of policy alternatives (in order to
   achieve the preferred goals) (?????????????)

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What futurists seek to know?

1. what can or could be (the possible) (?????) ,
   what is likely to be (the probable) (???????) ,
   and what is ought to be (the preferable) (????)
   ., p73
2. what causes change, the dynamic processes
   underlying technological developments on the one
   hand and changes in the political, economic,
   social, and cultural orders on the other., p111

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Nine major purposes of futures studies, Bell ,
p111, QA

1. The study of possible futures(see p14)
2. The study of probable futures(see p15)
3. The study of images (????????) of the futures
4. The study of the knowledge foundations of futures
   studies
5. The study of the ethical foundations of futures
   studies

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Nine major purposes of futures studies, QA

1. Interpreting the past and orientating the present
2. Integrating knowledge and values for designing
   social action (see p1619)
3. Increasing democratic participation in imaging
   and designing the future
4. Communicating and advocating a particular image
   of the future

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Why many fields need futures studies?

1. In facts, one of the reasons that futures
   studies is needed is precisely for the purpose of
   improving the wisdom of human decision making and
   the effectiveness of human action by means more
   self-conscious and adequate futures thinking.,
   p70, 1

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Is futures studies a field?

1. Because of its diversity, it may be more correct
   to call futures studies a multi-field or
   trans-disciplinary field, rather than a field.,
   p71, 1

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As other fields, futurists make predictions.
p112, 1

1. Rather, the purposes are more complicated and
   more far-reaching than mere prediction and
   involve the construction and evaluation of
   alternative futures for the purpose of increasing
   human control over the future.
2. Rather, futurists predictions (forecasts,
   projections, prophecies, etc. --- whatever they
   are labeled) are usually multiple, conditional
   (?...????), contingent(??????????,empirical),
   corrigible(?????????), and uncertain.

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Conclusion for prediction, p107, 1

1. Futurists can and do make predictive statements,
   but they cannot be certain that their predictions
   will be accurate.
2. In order to increase the effectiveness of
   decision making, futurists must consider not just
   one future outcome but a range of alternative
   possibilities for the future, assuming different
   conditions.

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Conclusion for prediction, p107, 1

1. In order to encourage responsible action,
   futurists must evaluate possible and probable
   futures according to some scale of values so as
   to judge how desirable various alternative
   futures will be.

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The study of possible futures

• trying to look at the present in new and
  different ways, often deliberately breaking out
  of the straitjacket (??) of conventional,
  orthodox (????????), or traditional thinking and
  taking unusual, even unpopular, perspectives.
• It involves creative and lateral thinking in
  order to see realities to which others are blind.

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The study of probable futures

• It focuses on the question of what the most
  likely future of some specified phenomenon would
  be within some stated time period and under
  specified contingencies( ????????).

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More on the 7th purposea sad example , QA

• Where Armero, Colombia
• When November 13, 1985
• What the Nevado del Ruiz volcano erupted
• Geologists successfully predict the probable
  coming eruption, and publish this prediction in
  many Colombian newspapers more than a month
  before the catastrophe.

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More on the 7th purposea sad example , QA

• Both Armeros mayor, Antonio Rodriquez, and the
  local Red Cross recommended that the town be
  evacuated.
• The result no evacuation and 21,000 people died
• Why the social processes involved in putting
  that knowledge to effective use in designing and
  implementing remedial social action were
  inadequate.

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More on the 7th purpose, p90

• In designing social action, futurist must do
• Seeing, integrating, and synthesizing many
  diverse knowledge and values we have of our
  complex physical, environmental, governmental,
  and social systems
• A very difficult job to do!
• Creating images, whether good or bad, of the
  future
• These future images provide guidance mechanisms
  for social action.

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More on the 7th purpose, p90

• Inventing, evaluating, and selecting policy
  alternatives to achieve these future images
• Details on consequences, values, and event
  probabilities must be carefully examined for each
  alternative. (Go back to p8.)