Coos Wood Availability Conference North Country Council and NH Division of Forests and Lands

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Coos Wood Availability ConferenceNorth Country
Council and NH Division of Forests and Lands
The Vermont Wood Fuel Supply Study An Overview
of Study Scope, Methods, and Results Whitefield,
New Hampshire March 7th, 2008
Adam Sherman, Program Manager Biomass Energy
Resource Center
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Biomass Energy Resource Center (BERC)
BERC is a national not-for-profit organization
working to promote responsible use of biomass for
energy. BERCs mission is to achieve a healthier
environment, strengthen local economies, and
increase energy security across the United States
by developing sustainable biomass systems at the
community level.
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Presentation Overview

• Background and purpose of the study
• Overview of the study scope, methods and results
• Discussion of strengths and weakness of this
  approach

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Background
Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• 25-year history of biomass energy in Vermont
• Increased demand for by-product wood fuel and
  decreased production
• Uncertainty about both availability of increased
  wood fuel and the reliability for the supply

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Stakeholders
• Vermont Forests, Parks and Recreation
• Vermont Department of Buildings and General
  Services
• Joseph McNeil Generating Station
• Ryegate Power Station

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• The study examined
• Amount of by-product generated annually from
  industry and communities
• Amount of low-grade wood grown annually in
  forests
• Economics of wood fuel supply
• Reliability of the supply infrastructure

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• STUDY AREA
• 14 counties in Vermont
• 4 counties in New York
• 2 counties in Massachusetts
• 4 counties in New Hampshire

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Quantified current generation of by-product wood
  fuels
• Sawmill Residues
• Harvest Residues
• Urban/Community Wood Waste

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Quantify the current market demand for wood
  residues and low-grade wood
• Pulp mills
• Biomass power plants
• Community and commercial woodchip heating
• Residential cordwood heating
• Wood pellet plants

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
Low-grade Wood Grown in Forests

• Initial Key Questions
• Do our forests have capacity to supply additional
  amounts of wood for biomass energy?
• If so, how much is there realistically?
• Which counties have the greatest surplus
  capacity?
• How will the forest growth capacity change as
  demand for wood fuels increase over time?

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Net Annual Growth as Indicator of Sustained Yield
  Capacity

Principle Invested
Interest Earned
Forest Inventory
Net Annual Growth
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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
Net Annual Growth is the change, resulting from
natural causes, in growing stock volume between
surveys

• Net Annual Growth In-growth Accretion -
  Mortality

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Available Wood Fuel Supply Calculation Basic
  Methodology
• Identify the portion of the total timberland area
  physically accessible for harvesting
• Estimate the portion of the accessible timberland
  area available based on social, economic, and
  political factors by ownership
• Examine above ground biomass inventory
• Estimate percentage of inventory that is
  considered low grade
• Apply net annual growth rates to low-grade
  inventory
• Subtract current annual harvest levels of
  low-grade wood
• Net Available Low-grade Growth (NALG) Wood

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
It is as simple as...
Where V Bole of Growing Stock Cull on
Timberland P Net Annual Growth Rate N Bole
Growth Low Grade K Total timberland Area
(acres) J Calculated Net Timberland Accessible
and Available for Harvesting Annual Growth F
Amount of Low grade Bole wood Harvested in Green
Tons R Tops Limbs of GS Trees and Cull on
Timberland O Top Limb Growth Suitable
and G Amount of Tops Limbs Harvested Note
the above formula is a simplified version of the
actual formula used in the tool.
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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Developed a Spreadsheet Tool to Calculate NALG
  Wood Capacity
• County Level Data Inputs
• Timberland Area
• Timberland Ownership
• Forest Inventory
• Annual Timber Product Harvesting
• Data woven together with series of key
  assumptions

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
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NALG Methodology
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• Total Land Area 5.5 million acres
• Forested Land Area 4.6 million acres
• Timberland Area 4.5 million acres
• Timberland is the productive and unencumbered
  forestland

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
NALG Methodology

• Physical accessibility analysis on all timberland
  ownerships using GIS accounting for
• Excessive slopes
• High elevations
• Hydric soils
• Excessive distance to roads
• Mapped deer yards
• Buffers for streams and bodies of water
• Restricted areas like wilderness

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
NALG Methodology

• Accessible timberland available for periodic
  harvesting based on timberland owner attitudes
  and behavior
• National Forest
• Misc. Federal
• State
• Municipal
• Corporate
• FPI
• Farmer
• Individual (lt50 acres)
• Individual (gt50 acres)

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
NALG Methodology

• Excluded high quality tree bole inventory
• Sawlogs
• Veneer
• Focus on low-grade bole and top limb wood
• Pulp
• Firewood
• Biomass

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• NALG Methodology

• Customized FIA data for above-ground biomass
• Live trees 5 DBH and greater
• Above a one foot stump excluding foliage
• Includes growing stock trees, cull trees,
  and non-commercial species

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
NALG Methodology

• Applied net annual growth rate to the low-grade
  portion on accessible and available timberland
• 2.24 as state-wide average
• Could not reliably use county specific data

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
NALG Methodology

• Subtracted the current average annual harvest
  volumes from net annual growth of low-grade wood
  on accessible and available timberland area
• Pulp harvested
• Firewood harvested
• Biomass harvested

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont
NALG Results
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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• NALG Results (Moderate Run)

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• NALG Wood Supply/Demand Model
• Not a growth/yield model (based on assumption of
  consistent net annual growth rate)
• Built upon same framework as the NALG Wood Supply
  Tool
• Examines future amounts of NALG Wood under
  different market demand scenarios (nearly
  infinite number of demand scenarios could be
  modeled)

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• NALG Wood Supply/Demand Model
• GIS Analysis
• Allocation of each countys demand on county
  levels of NALG Wood
• Allocation rule is adjustable

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• NALG Wood Supply/Demand Model
• Developed series of market demand scenarios (4
  generic scenarios tested)
• Tested the specific impacts of new large plants
  in specific counties

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• NALG Wood Supply/Demand Model
• Tested specific scenario of declining rate of
  annual growth
• From 2.25 in 2005 to 1.25 in 2015

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Strengths
• Takes long term perspective
• Provides landscape level resolution of the
  situation
• Versatile and highly adaptable tool and model
• Conducts analysis to test sensitivity of minor
  changes to the key assumptions used

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Weaknesses
• Approach only works if net growth is known to
  exceed annual harvesting (probably not a fit for
  Maine)
• Relies heavily on net annual growth data
• Only as good as the data and assumptions we feed
  it

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Vermont Wood Fuel Supply StudyAn Examination of
the Availability and Reliability of Wood Fuel for
Biomass Energy in Vermont

• Areas for Improvement and on-going Examination
• Better accounting for county averages of net
  annual growth
• Better/updated residential firewood consumption
  data
• Integrating and/or comparing growth/yield model
  results to the NALG Supply/Demand model results
• Updating using recently released 2006 FIA data
  for Vermont

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Contact Information
Adam Sherman Program Manager Biomass Energy
Resource Center 43 State Street Montpelier, VT
05601 802-223-7770 X 128 asherman_at_biomasscenter.or
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www.biomasscenter.org