David Carson

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World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) WMO/ICSU/IOC
David Carson Director World Climate Research
Programme WMO/ICSU/IOC WMO EC-LVI, 10 June 2004
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South American Low-level Jet Science goal To
understand the role of the South American
low-level jet in moisture and energy exchange
between the tropics and extratropics and related
aspects of regional hydrology, climate and
climate variability
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(No Transcript)
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New satellites and GEWEX/CLIVAR campaigns provide
opportunity for significant benefit from a more
Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP)
North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA)
(MDB)
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Rn
H
Rn
H
Manaus
Rondonia
ARM(TWP)
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Sounding map
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ACSYS Final Science Conference Progress in
Understanding the Arctic Climate System The ACSYS
Decade and Beyond
11-14 November 2003, Arctic and Antarctic
Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russian
Federation
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The perennial sea ice cover in the years 2002 and
2003 was the least extensive during the satellite
era.

• CliC Climate Cryosphere Project
• Processes of cryospheric change
• Contribution to sea level and ocean circulation

Greenland ice sheet melt area increased on
average by 16 from 1979 to 2002. The smallest
melt extent was observed after the Mt. Pinatubo
eruption in 1992
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CliC Implementation StrategyCliC Project Areas

• CPA1. Terrestrial cryosphere and hydrometeorology
  of cold regions
• CPA2. High Latitude oceans and the marine
  cryosphere
• CPA3. Glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, and
  their relation to sea level
• CPA4. Linkages between the cryosphere and global
  climate

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SPARC New Themes
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Globally averaged changes in total column ozone
100-50 hPa layer-mean temperatures. From Fioletov
et al. (2002)
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Joint SPARC-IGAC workshop on Climate Chemistry
Interactions
A. R. Ravishankara Shaw Liu Ulrich Platt Alan
ONeillTim Bates Sandro Fuzzi Claire Granier
Venue- Giens, Southern France Dates April 3-6,
2003
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Rapporteurs report Edit and rewrite Rapporteurs
report Meet to discuss the report and edit Send
out for comments Publish after final
revisions (IGAC Newsletter/SPARC website)
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v
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Basis for new joint and individual initiative
Summary published in SPARC Newsletter
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• Observations compared to ensemble average
  and uncertainty range from HadCM3 (Stott et al,
  2001) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM Meehl
  et al., 2003 ).

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ERA-40

• Production of analyses was completed in April
  2003
• Much use of data already in Europe via MARS and
  national data centres
• 2.5o data are available on a public data server
  (http//data.ecmwf.int/data)
• Data will be supplied to NCAR for UCAR and other
  US use
• Observations have been supplied to JMA for JRA-25

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Earth System Science Partnership
Health
START
Start
START
Health
Health
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Some Challenges for WCRPBuilding on the
foundation laid since 1980

• Address seamless prediction problem
• - weeks, decades, centuries
• Address prediction of the broader climate/Earth
  system
• Demonstrate the use to society of WCRP-enabled
  predictions
• Coordinate implement activities to exploit
• - new increasing data streams (environmental
  satellites Argo system)
• - growth in capability availability of
  computing
• - increasing complexity breadth of models
• - increasing data assimilation ability
• Interact with other ESSP Programmes

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WCRP-COPES Coordinated Observation Prediction
of the Earth System

• AIM
• To facilitate prediction of Earth system
  variability change for use in an increasing
  range of practical applications of direct
  relevance, benefit and value to society

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WCRP-COPES Coordinated Observation Prediction
of the Earth System

• Specific Objectives (with time-scales, milestones
  metrics) to be determined in consultation
  with the WCRP community
• Some initial suggestions
• Determine the predictive power of
  state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems (to
  be repeated periodically)
• Further develop test techniques for ensemble
  prediction of climate variability change
• Determine the scientific basis for, best
  approaches to, and current skill of projections
  of regional climate change
• Develop well-tested climate-chemistry prediction
  projection models systems
• .. decadal prediction

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WCRP COPES Status

• Task force formed to define and initiate a
  process to plan implement COPES report to
  JSC26 in 2005
• Some structural changes, including new Modelling
  Panel Working Group on Observations
  Assimilation
• COPES discussion document being distributed to
  WCRP stakeholders for comments, including
  suggestions for Specific Objectives
• Task Force for Seasonal Prediction initiated
  JSC24 (March 2003) first report to JSC25 (March
  2004)

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WCRP Past, Present, Future, .
COPES
CLIVAR,GEWEX,CliC, SPARC,WGNE,WGCM
TOGA,WOCE, ACSYS