Where does this reanalysis fit in the NCEP plan?

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Where does this reanalysis fit in the NCEP plan?
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• Our mandate a CFS upgrade in 2010
• Our approach a reanalysis and reforecast
  upgrade
• On the reanalysis, we propose to
• Use the coupled model to provide first guess
• Use the operational atmospheric data assimilation
  resolution
• Use MOM4 at .5 degree (developed in GFDL)
• Use Global Land Data Assimilation (developed in
  EMC but funded by NCPO)

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Why T382?

• We feel that the best initial condition is the
  best way to improve forecast
• Potential for reforecast for short and medium
  range
• It would also be the best forcing for the ocean
  data assimilation

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Group effort

• Some of the work are internal supported
• GFS model development
• GSI improvement
• More are externally supported
• Satellite data ingest (JCSDA)
• Land model and land data assimilation (NCPO)
• Ocean model (NOAA GFDL)
• Ocean data assimilation (NCPO)
• MSU and SSU recalibration and corrections (NESDIS)

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Monitoring and archival

• CPC and CTB have committed major resources to
  help with the monitoring and evaluation effort
• NCDC is committed to archive and provide to the
  community the reanalysis data
• NCAR wants to be a strong partner

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What do we want from the board?

• EMC and NCPO management have given us full
  support. But are we doing it right? They want to
  know.
• Is CFSRR the right thing to do? Are there cheaper
  alternatives?
• Risk vs reward for
• Coupled data assimilation
• High resolution
• Is the schedule reasonable?
• What more preparation work should we be doing?
• What products are important to other users of the
  reanalysis?

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Guess T382L64 Hourly Output Hourly 60
variables only from PGB file (.5x.5) 4 MB
(1) Standard pressure GRIB (0.5x0.5) 155
MB Standard flux GRIB (Gaussian 1152x576)
70 MB (1) Radiation flux GRIB (Gaussian
1152x576) 60 MB (2) Per hour
140 MB Total for 1 day 140 x 24
3.36 GB
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Analysis T382L64 Atmospheric Output 6-hourly Prepb
ufr Analysis 30 MB (3) Data Dumps (for 26
Aug 2007) 895 MB (3) Sigma hybrid analysis
(spectral) 228 MB (3) Surface analysis
(Gaussian) 117 MB (3) Standard pressure GRIB
(.5x.5) 155 MB (1) 3-D diagnostic model level
GRIB 976 MB 3-D diagnostic pressure level
GRIB (.5x.5) 454 MB (2) Isentropic diagnostic
GRIB (.5x.5) 32 MB (2) Total 2.4 GB Total
for 1 day 2.4 x 4 9.6 GB
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Analysis Ocean Output from MOM4 6-Hourly Ocean
Analysis GRIB (model grid) 400 MB (3) Ocean
Analysis 1240 MB Ocean standard grid
200 MB Ocean standard grid GRIB (0.5 x 0.5)
20 MB (1) Total 600 GB Total for 1
day 0.6 x 4 2.4 GB
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2-day T382L64 Coupled Forecast Output 6-hourly
T382L64 Atmospheric Standard pressure GRIB
(1.0x1.0) 52 MB For one 2-day
forecast 52 x 8 416 MB Total for 1
day of Reanalysis forecasts (4 cycles)
1.67 GB
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CFSRR Output Archive Needed for Hydrology
Community 318 Tb total

• CFS reforecast 288.3 Tb
• Atmosphere (standard 6-hourly grib 2.5 deg
  pressure file) 99.09 Tb
• (7.7 Mb X 4)/day x 366 days per CFS member x
  8790 CFS members
• Land (standard 6-hourly grib flux file) 124.83
  Tb
• (9.7 Mb x 4)/day x 366 days per CFS member x
  8790 CFS members
• Ocean (standard daily grib 0.5 deg) 64.35 Tb
• 20Mb/day x 366 days per CFS member x 8790 CFS
  members
• Global Reanalysis 30.1 Tb
• Atmosphere (GDAS) 14.3 Tb
• (standard 6-hourly grib 0.5 deg pressure file)
  7.5 Tb
• (155 Mb x 4)/day x 365 days x 33 years
• (standard 3-hourly surface flux grib) 6.8 Tb
• (70 Mb x 8)/day x 365 days x 33 years
• Land (GLDAS) 15.5 Tb
• GLDAS hourly land surface forcing 3 Tb
• 10 Mb per hour times 24 hours/day x 365 days/year
  x 33 years
• GLDAS 3-hourly land surface states and fluxes
  12.5 Tb
• 130 Mb per 3-hours x 8 times daily x 365 days x
  33 years
• Ocean (GODAS) 0.3 Tb

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REANALYSIS T62
OPERATIONS T382
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REANALYSIS T62
OPERATIONS T382
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REANALYSIS T62
OPERATIONS T382
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REANALYSIS T62
OPERATIONS T382
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REANALYSIS T62
OPERATIONS T382
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OPERATIONS SSI T382
REANALYSIS GSI T62
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5 day forecast anomaly correlation Annual Mean
(T62 atmosphere only)
Year NH SH Year NH SH
1979 73 67 1987 73 71
1980 74 68 1988 72 72
1981 74 69 1989 75 69
1982 74 68 1990 74 70
1983 74 70 1991 74 71
1984 74 68 1992 75 73
1985 74 67 1993 74 72
1986 75 69 1994 75 70
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5 day forecast anomaly correlation Annual Mean
(T62 atmosphere only)
Reanalysis NH SH
OPR 85 80
CFSRR 74 72
CFS (R2) 72 63
R1 71 62
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5 day forecast anomaly correlation for Jan
Year NH SH Year NH SH Year NH SH
1979 82 65 1989 78 71 1999 79 69
1980 79 71 1990 73 65 2000 84 67
1981 82 63 1991 81 69 2001 80 64
1982 74 68 1992 81 71 2002 81 68
1983 81 77 1993 79 68 2003 84 72
1984 83 68 1994 77 60 2004 80 72
1985 78 65 1995 84 62 2005 83 75
1986 78 65 1996 79 68 2006
1987 76 70 1997 79 72 2007
1988 76 70 1998 76 66 2008