THE VERTICAL SHIFT:

1
THE VERTICAL SHIFT AVOIDING THE MALTHUSIAN
CATASTROPHE BY GORDON GRAFF
2
THE VERTICAL SHIFT AVOIDING THE MALTHUSIAN
CATASTROPHE BY GORDON GRAFF
The power of population is so superior to the
power of the earth to produce subsistence for
man, that premature death must in some shape or
other visit the human race. _____________________
________ Thomas Malthus, 1789
3
Population Pressures

• As Malthus identified, the human population has
• a linear relationship with land
• Present estimates indicated at least 80 of
• potentially arable land is already being used
  for
• agricultural purposes.

4
Population Pressures

• To feed the additional 2.5 billion people
  expected
• by 2050, 109 hectares (1,000,000,000 ha) of
  land
• will be required to feed them with conventional
  
• farming practices
• To get a scale of this area requirement, it is
• about approximately the size of Brazil
• This is simply not available

5
Linear Consumption of Land
DUST BOWL 1930s US MID-WEST
Dust Bowl 1930s USA
1925
William B. Greeley, The Relation of Geography to
Timber Supply, Economic Geo.
6
Linear Consumption of land
About ½ of the mature tropical forest cover of
the earth has been destroyed, somewhere between
750-800 million hectares
7
Linear Consumption of land
AFGHANISTAN 70 loss
Between 1990 and 2005 Afghanistan lost 33.8 of
its woodland habitat. In total, 70 of its
forests have been destroyed.
8
Linear Consumption of land
NIGERIA 79 loss
Nigeria presently has the highest rate of
deforestation of primary forests, according to
the UN. Between 1990 and 2005 the country lost
35.7 of its forest cover. All together, 79 of
Nigerias primary forests have been destroyed.
Reasons Logging, Subsistence Agriculture,
Collection of Firewood
9
Linear Consumption of land
MADAGASCAR 94 loss
Madagascars rampant deforestation has resulted
in extensive desertification, water
resource degradation, and soil loss.
Approximately 94 of its biologically diverse
lands have been destroyed, nearly all of which
has occurred since claiming independence from
France in 1958. This is disheartening when
considering 5 of the earths plant and animal
species are located in Madagascar, most of which
are endemic.
10
Linear consumption of land
PHILIPPINES 90 loss
At one time 95 of the land area of the
Philippine archipelago was covered by tropical
rainforest Today, over 90 of this diverse
ecosystem has been destroyed The Philippines is
ranked as having the most severely endangered
mammal and bird faunas in the world
11
Brazil

• Since 1970, 600,000 square kilometers of
  Amazonian Rainforest
• have been destroyed within Brazil for
  agriculture uses. That is
• about the size of Manitoba, or, two and half
  times the size of the
• United Kingdom. This is approximately 40 of
  its size of1950
• The soil of the Amazon is not ideal for crop
  cultivation, and tends to
• only stay fertile for a limited time. Farmers
  are constantly clearing
• more land to meet production needs
• Unless significant steps are taken to limit
  deforestation in this area,
• it is projected that by 2030 only 10 of this
  vital natural resource
• will remain

12
Tierras Bajas Project BOLIVIA

• Located within the topical rainforest just
• east of Santa Cruz
• Communities were established on a
• 5 km x 5 km grid for Soybean cultivation

13
Agricultures Land Consumption

• Approximately 38 of the Earths land is being
  used for human agriculture. When considering all
  forests/wooded areas/savannahs only cover 26,
  and urban space a tiny 3.5, the scale of human
  agriculture comes into view.

26 Forrest Savannah
38 Agriculture
14
Food Security
Food Security
Environmental Variability
Climate Change
Pest Damage
Drought
Food Oil Connection
Haiti April 2008
145 barrel
July 2008
70 barrel
July 2006
15
INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY

• Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid
• Massive starvation

16
INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY

• Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid
• Massive starvation
• Irreversible ecological catastrophe

17
INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY

• Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid
• Massive starvation
• Irreversible ecological catastrophe
• Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture

18
INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY

• Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid
• Massive starvation
• Irreversible ecological catastrophe
• Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture
• Improve Food Security

19
INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY

• Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid
• Massive starvation
• Irreversible ecological catastrophe
• Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture
• Improve Food Security
• Reduce negative ecological impact of agriculture
  
• (methane, nitrous oxide emissions)

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SkyFarm
SkyFarm
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• 59 Floors
• 238 m (714 ft)
• 3,800,000 ft2 floor area
• 11,000,000 ft2 growing area
• Feeds over 40,000 people
• year round
• Fossil-fuel free agriculture
• Redefining local
• agriculture

SkyFarm
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PHOTOVOLTAICS
GREEN WALL (SILAGE)
SkyFarm
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SkyFarm YEARLY PRODUCTION
54,388,000 lbs of Vegetable Produce
989,000 lbs of Animal Meat 455,000 lbs
of Eggs
SkyFarm
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Space Efficiency Surface Area
63 metres (surface area)

182 metres (growing area)
x2.8 SURFACE AREA
EXAMPLE Strawberry Production
25
Space Efficiency Conditioned Space Multiple
Harvests Example Strawberry Production
x10 HARVESTS
1 ACRE X 2.8 (VERTICAL ORIENT.) X 10 HARVESTS
28 ACRES

• Temperature and lighting control
• enables the optimal growing
• conditions for each plant type
• to be maintained indefinitely

26
Space Efficiency Vertical Stacking
James Wines HIGHRISE OF HOMES
27
SkyFarm PRODUCE EQUAL TO
1369.62 acre or 547.85 hectares of
conventional farming
SkyFarm
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1.34 hectares
SkyFarm
29
1.34 hectares
230 hectares
SkyFarm
30
230 hectares
230 hectares only 460 hectares!
SkyFarm
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SkyFarm CALCULATIONS
SkyFarm
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SkyFarm CALCULATIONS
40,000
SkyFarm
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SkyFarm BUILDING SYSTEM DIAGRAM
POWER
CLEAN H20
AGRI-WASTE
WASTE H20
SILAGE
ANAEROBIC DIGESTER
LIVING MACHINETM
SkyFarm
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SkyFarm CALCULATIONS
Data courtesy of Dr. Dickson Despommier Columbia
University
SkyFarm
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SkyFarm URBAN SYSTEM DIAGRAM
POWER
WATER
BIO-WASTE / COMPOSTABLES
POWER TO GRID
ORGANIC WASTE
SEWAGE
PRE-FILTER
WASTE WATER
WATER TO CITY
SkyFarm
36
GROWHousing Moss Park (Toronto)
37
Moss Park

• The tightly packed tenement houses that
  characterised the
• neighbourhood were cleared during the urban
  renewal programs of
• the 1950s and 60s
• Over the years, the citys social and temporary
  housing initiatives
• slowly accumulated in the neighbourhood due to
  the affordable
• land and central location
• The building site, which is on the west side of
  the park, is currently
• consumed by the Moss Park Armoury

GROWHousing
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Program
GROWHousing
39

• LIVING MACHINE
• HYDROPONIC FARM

Building System

• LIVING MACHINE FILTERS FARM
  RESIDENTIAL WASTE WATER
• HYDROPONIC FARM PRODUCES ENOUGH FOOD
  TO SUSTAIN 1,000 PEOPLE / YR
• ANAEROBIC DIGESTER COLLECTS FARM WASTE,
  COMPOSTABLES FROM RESIDENTIAL UNITS
• AND SOLID WASTE FROM WASTE WATER TO
  PRODUCE POWER
• (ALSO CAN PROCESS BIO-WASTES FROM
  NEIGHBORHOOD)

GROWHousing
40
Community Gardens

• CREATES 5,300 m2 OF COMMUNITY ACCESS GARDENS
• NUTRIENT-RICH COMPOST AND NATURAL FERTILIZERS
  GENERATED ON SITE
• (FROM ANAEROBIC DIGESTER)
• INTRODUCES SOCIAL ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS A GREATER
  DEGREE OF SELF-
• SUFFICIENCY FOR LOW-INCOME EARNERS

GROWHousing
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Cyclical Resource Flows
GROWHousing
42
GROWHousing
43
Dongtan China ARUP
44
Masdar United Arab Emirates Sir NORMAN FOSTER
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RAK Gateway United Arab Emirates OMA REM
KOOLHAAS