The Health Effects of Transportation

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The Health Effects of Transportation

• Health Canada activities in support of
  sustainable transportation

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Lecture Outline

• Risk assessment/management at HC
• Standard risk assessment protocol
• Air quality risk assessment
• Health effects of air pollutants
• Four examples
• sulphur-in-gasoline
• MMT
• MTBE
• Electric Vehicles
• Conclusions

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Risk Management Functions
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Risk Assessment Protocol(standard)
Epidemiology
Panels
Air
Clinical
Risk
Effects
Food
Toxicology
Exposure
Water
Pharmacokinetics
Soil
Consumer Products
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Large scale mortality/morbidity events
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Trends in Air Pollution (Toronto, 1980-1994)
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Ontario Hospital Admissions Fine Particulate
Matter
Resp. Hosp. Adms.

• 168 acute care hosp
• asthma, bronchitis, pneumonia
• controlled for health care usage weather
• effects observed at low concentrations
• 15,000 C-R hosp annually in Canada

Fine Particles
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So why has air quality become a priority?

• Effects occurring at ambient levels
• Involuntary nature of exposure
• No threshold for effects
• Magnitude of the health effect
• Sensitive groups affected
• Suspect air pollution creates disease
• Knowledge gaps affect controls

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Case Histories
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Sulphur-in-GasolineWhat was the issue?

• naturally occurring in crude.
• poisons catalytic converter.
• emissions linked to adverse health effects.
• regulation was called for.
• No Canadian regulations.
• Highest levels in western world.

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Canadian Sulphur Levels - 1998Highest in
Ontario, highly variable between refineries,
independents generally lower
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Sulphur-in-Gasoline (cont.)

• Scientific Panels were established.
• Atmospheric
• Health
• Cost
• Competitiveness
• Panels chosen by all parties
• Panels were independent
• Panels presented findings to multi-stakeholder
  working group

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Atmospheric Panel Findings
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Health Effects Panel
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Sulphur-in-Gasoline (cont.)

• Cost Panel
• approximately 1 cent/litre increase
• uneven distribution of costs
• regionally and by company
• Competitiveness Panel
• 3-4 refineries threatened.
• threat based on current technological capacity of
  individual refineries.

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Sulphur-in-Gasoline (cont.)

• Government reviewed panel findings
• Regulation proposed
• Stakeholder consultation (health vs. industry)
• Regulation finalized
• based on health findings
• Industry proposed change
• considered and refused

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MMTMethylcyclopentadienyl Manganese Tricarbonyl
(C9H7MnO3)
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MMT Issues

• Impact on pollution control technology
• evidence equivocal (EC, EPA)
• Mn as an emission
• phosphate, sulphate, oxide
• Manganese
• essential element at low dose (dietary)
• neurotoxin at high doses

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Manganese toxicity
Exposure
Concentration ng/m3
Group
Health Endpoint
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Mn (MMT) Risk Assessment

• Do Mn air concentrations in Canada represent a
  health threat?
• If so, what is the contribution of MMT use to
  these levels?

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Risk Assessment Protocol(standard)
Risk
Effects
Exposure
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Mn (MMT) Risk Assessment (cont.)

• Toxicity Assessment
• bioavailability, transport, reversibility, age,
  susceptible subgroups
• Exposure Assessment
• multi-media
• ambient and estimated personal exposure levels
  (Mean, 90th, 99th)
• Montreal (high traffic), Hamilton (industrial),
  St. John (small city)

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Mn Reference Value Derivation

• Study with lowest exposure having effect on
  adverse health outcome
• HC, US EPA, WHO used Roels et al. 1992
• Calculation
• extract NOAEL 102 ug/m3 (264 ug/m3yrs /2.6yrs)
• convert to lifetime exposure (x 5/7 x 10/23
  m3/day)
• apply uncertainty factors
• 10 for intraspecies variation
• 10 for less than lifetime exposure
• 100.5 for database limitations
• RfC 0.11 ug Mn/m3

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Risk Assessment Conclusionexposure vs. toxicity

• current levels of airborne manganese to which
  the population of large Canadian urban centres
  are exposed are below the level at which adverse
  effects are expected
• for cities in which there are major
  manganese-emitting industries, average manganese
  exposure is at or above the level at which the
  risk of adverse effects may begin to increase.

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Then all hell broke loose
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MTBEmethyl tertiary butyl ether
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MTBE Chronology

• 1980s mandated in US non-attainment areas
• 1992 CEPA assessment not toxic
• 1998 found in California well / surface water
• subsequent surveys find it elsewhere in US
• 1999 California bans additive, others follow
• 1999 Methanex files NAFTA suit/WTO complaint
• 2000 moves and counter-moves in Congress

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MTBE Canadian story

• Non-toxic finding based on low exposure
• What if MTBE were used at U.S. levels?
• Groundwater no findings yet
• DW subcomm.
• air quality monitoring in place
• NAPS
• modelling has been done
• a reassessment would be triggered

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Electric Vehicles
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Electric Vehicles

• Benefits/impact of introduction
• Modelling exercise
• Removing tailpipe emissions in cities
• Adding powerplant emissions
• power grid mix
• power plant locations
• climate change
• Ancillary Issues

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Results to Date

• Less benefits than expected
• CO vs. ozone PM not available
• Local air quality regime important
• Regional power grid important
• Recharging scenario important
• Benefits dependent on above plus exact nature of
  air pollution health effects

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The future

• Air pollution issues
• MMT (exposure)
• MTBE
• Ethanol
• Sulphur in diesel
• Advanced concepts