BoomBustBottom

1
BoomBustBottom?

• Expectations for the Housing Market in 2010 and
  Beyond
• By
• Glenn E. Crellin
• Director, Washington Center for Real Estate
  Research
• October 8, 2009
• California Association of REALTORS

2
The Broad Brush

• Press focuses on National or Statewide Aggregate
  Statistics
• All real estate is local

3
U.S. Home Sales Cycle
4
Confused About Price Statistics?

• Medians
• FHFA (formerly OFHEO)
• SP Case-Shiller
• First American Core Logic
• IHS Global Insight
• PMI

5
Spokane Home Sales 2008
6
FHFA Home Prices
7
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
8
First American CoreLogic Loan Performance HPI
9
IHS Global Insight Overvaluation
10
Market Risk Index PMI
11
Negative Equity Mortgages 2009Q2
12
90-Day Mortgage Delinquencies ( of loans)
13
Residential Serious Delinquency
14
Re-Default Rates of Modified Loans 60 or More
Days Delinquent
15
Housing Market Recovery 2009-10

• 8,000 Tax Credit
• Limited Equity Sellers
• Still Running on Empty

16
U, V or W?

• U
• Prolonged, slow recovery
• V
• Classic, pronounced recovery
• W
• Double bottom with a brief intermediate recovery