Resources Addition SSGWI Studies

1
2005 SSG-WI Economic Transmission Expansion
Planning Study Coordination with
other Sub-regional Planning Groups SWAT/Denver
Aug23 Peter Krzykos
2
2005 SSG-WI Transmission Study

• 2005 SSG-WI Study is assessing Transmission needs
  to support Most Likely Future Generation
  Scenarios
• As described in SSG-WI Planning Process, SSG-WI
  coordinates with the Sub-regional Planning Groups
  (e.g. SWAT, NTAC,RMATS,CCPG, STEP) through
  exchanges of information

3
2005 SSG-WI Transmission Study

• Modeling Effort being conducted under Technical
  Support Group through 4 Subgroups
• Modeling (LeadMike DeWolf)
• Transmission (LeadJeff Miller)
• Generation (LeadMary Johannis)
• Load Forecasting (LeadDonald Davies)

4
SSG-WI Modeling Roles
Facilitator role the glue that binds us
together
Load Forecasting Sub-Group

• Topology
• Load forecast (2008)
• Load growth (2015)
• Load mapping to the bus level

• Determine
• Congestion and congestion costs
• Economic implications of alts
• Validate modeling
• Presentations report

• Planning margin
• Resources resource attributes
• Fuel prices
• Emissions
• Validate modeling
• Presentations report

Generation Sub-Group
Modeling Team

• Topology
• Transmission path ratings nomograms
• Transmission solutions to relieve congestion
• Validate modeling
• Presentations report

Transmission Sub-Group
TSG and PWG approve key assumptions, scenarios
and modeling results
5
Coordination with Sub-regional Planning Groups

• Coordination with Sub-regional Planning Groups
  through liaisons
• SWAT Peter Krzykos
• STEP Bob Smith
• NTAC M Landauer
• RMATS Ray Brush Jim Tucker
• CCPG John Collins

6
Coordination with SWAT2015 Scenarios

• Assistance in defining most likely 2015
  scenarios
• Check generation attributes for new thermal power
  plants
• Check assumptions on new wind, other renewable
• Check that outcomes of SSG-WI studies consistent
  with SWAT studies where similar transmission and
  generation assumptions made

7
SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

• Do Nothing case
• - Loads will be extrapolated to 2015
• levels
• - No resources or transmission
• additions beyond 2008 case
• - Determine production costs by
• area and congestion costs by area

8
SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

• Planned Resource Scenario" case
• The Planned Resource Scenario is intended to
  model those resources and associated transmission
  additions required to meet projected 2015 load
  within a region.

9
SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

• Planned Resource Scenario" case
• Resource additions intended primarily for export
  to other regions should not be included.
  Evaluation of such resource plans should be the
  objective of other resource scenario studies.

10
SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

• Planned Resource Scenario" case
• It is not the purpose of the Planned Resource
  Scenario case to evaluate competing resource
  plans.

11
SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

• Planned Resource Scenario" case
• The sources of information for the Planned
  Resource Scenario are primarily publicly
  available utility resource plans and/or
  state/provincial agency resource studies.

12
SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

• Planned Resource Scenario" case
• A load resource balance will be performed.
  Resources in addition to those identified above
  may need to be added in areas where the planning
  margin is insufficient. The Subregional Planning
  Groups will identify for the SSG-WI Generation
  Subgroup, which additional resources to include
  to meet load and planning margin.

13
NEW MEXICO

• New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015
  
• State Area Name New Plant or Plant being Retired
  Bus Name
• NM New Mexi Purchase/Retire-Renovate AFTONG
• NM New Mexi New/Renovated AFTONG
• NM New Mexi Purchase/Existing Merchant BLACKWTR
• NM New Mexi Retire-Renovated
  REEVE_G1
• NM New Mexi New/Renovated REEVE_G2
• NM New Mexi Retire LVGT
• NM New Mexi New YORKCANY
• NM New Mexi New VERANDAT
• NM New Mexi New SHIPROCK

14
NEVADA

• New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015
  
• State Area Name New Plant or Plant being Retired
  Bus Name
• NV Nevada New Chuck Lenzie N NV
  NV Nevada New
  Harry Allen Unit 4
• NV Nevada Existing Silver Hawk
• NV Nevada New Generic-Coal
• NV Nevada New Generic-Gas SCCT
• NV Nevada New Generic-Gas CCT
• NV Nevada New Generic-Gas SCCT
• NV Nevada New Air Conditioning Load Mgt (ACLM)

15
SIERRA

• New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015
  
• State Name New Plant or Plant being Retired
  
• NV Sierra New Tracy Facility
  Additions
• NV Sierra New TS Power Plant
• NV Sierra New White Pine Project

16
COLORADO

• New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015
  
• State Area New Plant or Plant being Retired
  
• CO COL EAST New COMANCHE
  III
• CO COL EAST New Wind Projects 2005

17
ARIZONA

• New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015
  
• State Area New Plant or Being Retired
• AZ New Desert Rock
  Energy
• AZ New
  Springerville ,4
• AZ New Gila Bend Power
  Project
• AZ New Bowie Power
  Station
• AZ New
  Wellton-Mohawk
• Renewable Energy Projects
• AZ New Sunshine
  Wind Park
• AZ New Dolan
  Springs Wind

18
Transmission Additions

• Add transmission required to integrate the
  incremental resource additions that will be
  represented in the Planned Resource Scenario.
• Do not add new interregional transmission
  required to increase export/import capability.
  The identification of such additional
  interregional transmission will be the subject of
  congestion studies using the 2015 case.

19
Transmission Additions

• Transmission Facility Additions / Assumptions
• SSG-WI 2008 and 2015 Base Cases
• December 15, 2004 TSG Meeting
• Line
  2008 Case
  2015 Case
• McNary John Day No
  No
• Navajo Dineh Phase 1 (do a sensitivity) No
  No
• Navajo Dineh Phase 2 (do a sensitivity) No
  No
• Kingman Wind Project
  No
  No
• (Will add back in if Gen Subroup includes Kingman
  wind generation)
• Eastern Mexico Tie
  No No
• Palo Verde Devers 2
  No No
• Tehachapi Wind transmission 1
  line 2 lines
• Canada CA (do a sensitivity)
  No No
• Pinal Project
  No Yes
• North Phoenix (Raceway)
  Yes Yes
• RMATS (do a sensitivity)
  No No
• Amps Phase Shifter
  Yes Yes
• New 500 kV line to San Diego
  No No

20
Transmission Additions

• Phase Shifter Modeling
• Bypass Perkins Crystal
• Five phase shifters on NE SE islanding
• Nelway in service
• Nomograms
• Add Southern New Mexico nomogram
• Criteria for Line Additions
• Use conservative transmission assumptions in the
  base cases, with minimal additions. Add only
  committed Projects. Purpose of base case is to
  expose transmission problems, not intended to
  express doubt about any projects benefits. For
  2008 case, must be permitted and under
  construction.

21
SCHEDULE

• Comments and changes sent to
• Johannis,Mary H - R mhjohannis_at_bpa.gov
• by Aug.26.2005
• Sept 16,2005 - Initial run/congestion
• studies/identify transmission requirements
• Sept 28.2005 Rerun studies to optimize
• regional transmission to relieve congestion
• Determine sensitivities /extra runs ?/