Draft Strategy 2609

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RMP Modeling Strategy

• John Oram
• Jay Davis

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Intent

• To develop a capacity to predict the effect of
  different management alternatives on
• loads from watersheds,
• the recovery of contaminated areas on the Bay
  margin,
• the recovery of the Bay as a whole

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Approach

• To develop conceptual and numeric models of the
  physical, chemical, and biological processes
  governing the fate of water, sediment, and
  pollutants of concern in San Francisco Bay and
  its associated watersheds

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Question 1 Bay Margins

• What is the contribution of contaminated Bay
  margins to impairment in the Bay and what are the
  projected impacts of management actions to the
  Bay's recovery?

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Question 2 Bay Recovery

• What patterns of exposure are forecast for major
  segments of the Bay under various management
  scenarios?

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Question 3 Small Tributary Loads

• What are the projected impacts of management
  actions on loads or concentrations of pollutants
  of concern from the high-leverage small
  tributaries?
• Where should management actions be implemented in
  the region to have the greatest impact?

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Strategy Coordination

• Establish a Bay Area Modeling Forum that will
• guide agencies and NGOs in the selection, use,
  and interpretation of models for describing
  sediment-water relationships in fluvial and tidal
  systems
• improve communication and coordination of local
  modelers and stakeholders
• reduce duplication of efforts
• improve the overall quality of modeling products

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Strategy Bay Margins Model

• Develop a flexible grid model capable of
  implicitly allowing for the interaction of
  fine-scale processes occurring at the Bay Margins
  with the larger-scale processes of the Bay proper

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Strategy Bay Margins Model

• What is a flexible grid anyway?
• An approach to allow increased resolution in
  areas of concern

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Strategy Bay Margins Model
Curvilinear Grid
Delft3d grid from P. Barnard (USGS)
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Strategy Bay Margins Model
Unstructured Grid
SUNTANS grid of Puget Sound
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Strategy Bay Margins Model

• Some Model Options
• Multibox
• Good for hypothesis testing
• - Limited spatial/temporal resolution
• - Limited ability to calibrate/validate
• - Limited sediment capabilites
• 3D Commercial Delft3D, Mike, TRIM, UnTRIM
• - Licensing can be costly
• Set-up often less complex than open-source
• Package Deal - includes pre- and
  post-processing software
• Technical support is available
• - Black Box
• 3D Open-Source ROMS, SUNTANS,
• Freely available
• /- State-of-the-art
• /- Community Support
• - Set-up can be challenging
• /- Time is largest expense

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Strategy Bay Margins Model

• What is SUNTANS?
• Stanford Unstructured Nonhydrostatic
  Terrain-following Adaptive Navier-Stokes
  Simulator
• Next generation of coastal models
• Co-developed in SF Bay by Stanford and UC
  Berkeley
• Open-Source
• Includes water, sediment, contaminant
  capabilities
• Accounts for tidal wetting/drying
• Ocean boundary condition can be driven by ROMS

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Strategy Local Watersheds

• Develop models of key watersheds over the next
  three years with the goal of developing a
  regional model (or set of models)
• Watersheds will be identified by SPLWG and Small
  Tributaries Strategy Team
• These groups will provide project oversight as
  well.

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Model Proposal

• What Development of a highly-resolved
  three-dimensional model of South Bay
• Who Mark Stacey (UCB), Rusty Holleman (UCB), Ed
  Gross (Consultant), John Oram (SFEI)
• Why Project would provide support for a UCB
  graduate student to continue development of South
  Bay model and would help insure that development
  is relevant to RMP objectives.

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Model Proposal

• Specifics Aim is to develop flexible grid of
  South Bay with emphasis on 1 or 2 tributaries
  (e.g., Guadalupe) and a Bay margin site (e.g.,
  San Leandro Bay). Model will be useful for
  answering questions related to flushing times and
  exchange processes (e.g., what is influence of
  margin on Bay?).
• Budget