Contents: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 35

About This Presentation

Title:

4
Total sea level
Differences due to models Differences due to
forcing fluxes
5
Surface Salinity
Differences due to models Differences due to
forcing fluxes
6
Solar Heat flux Era Interim Era 40
7
Flux correction term ( SST error)
ERA-40
ERA-INTERIM
8
Wind Stress
9
Meridional wind stress time series
ERA-40/OPS
ERA-INTERIM
10
T300
11
Correlation with Altimeter date
ERA-40
ERA-INTERIM
12
EXPLOITATION OF THE ENSEMBLES DATA SET

In preparation for the CMIP5 integrations
There is a good set of MULTI-MODEL decadal
integrations.
Data on a OpenDap server (common grid, CF
compliant)
http//ensembles.ecmwf.int/thredds/catalog.html
http//www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/ENSEMBLE
S/data/index.html
Output from Ocean and Atmosphere predictions and
Ocean Initial Conditions (ocean reanalysis)
Opportunity to investigate Pacific Decadal
Predictability/Prediction?..ENSO behaviour

13
Example forecast anomalies of ocean temperature

Ocean-point (70N-60S) SST anomaly (2-year
running mean applied) from ENSEMBLES hindcasts.
REFERENCE is ERA40/OPS.
Results from 2 of these models have been
published in Nature/Science. Spot which ones

HadGEM2 (3 members)
ECHAM5/OM1 (3 members)
DePreSys_PP (9 members)
ARPEGE4/OPA (3 members)
Results produced by F. Doblas -Reyes
14
IFS/HOPE impact of ocean observations
Global mean near-surface air temperature anomaly
(2-year running mean applied) from the ECMWF
re-forecasts. ERA40/OPS is used as a reference.
The mean systematic error has been removed over
the period 1960-2005.
IFS/HOPE NoObs
15
Estimation of the Atlantic MOC
Assimilation No-Data Bryden etal 2005 Cunningham
etal 2007
From Balmaseda etal 2007
16
IFS/HOPE impact of ocean observations
Zonally integrated across the Atlantic meridional
water velocity (103 m2/s) from the ECMWF ocean
re-analysis (left) and the mean of the ten ECMWF
re-forecasts Assim (centre) and NoObs (right).
27N
Profiles below 150m
36N
17
Perceived Paradigm for initialization of coupled
forecasts
Real world
Model attractor
Medium range Being close to the real world is
perceived as advantageous. Model retains
information for these time scales. Model
attractor and real world are close?
Decadal or longer Need to initialize the model
attractor on the relevant time and spatial
scales. Model attractor different from real
world.
Seasonal? Somewhere in the middle?
At first sight, this paradigm would not allow a
seamless prediction system.

Experiments
Uncoupled SST Wind Stress Ocean Observations
(ALL)
Uncoupled SST Wind Stress (NO-OCOBS)
Coupled SST (SST-ONLY) (Keenlyside et al
2008, Luo et al 2005)

18
Impact of real world information on skill
NINO3.4 RMS ERROR ALL NO-OCOBS SST-ONLY
Adding information about the real world improves
ENSO forecasts
From Balmaseda and Anderson 2009
19
Impact of real world information on skill
20
Impact of Initialization
Eastern Pacific
ALL NO-OCOBS SST-ONLY
DRIFT

Drift and Variability depend on Initialization !!
More information corrects for model error, and
the information is retained during the fc.
Need more balanced initialization methods to
prevent initialization shock hitting non
linearities

VARIABILITY

Relation between drift and Amplitude of
Interannual variability.
Possible non linearity is the warm drift
interacting with the amplitude of ENSO?

21
Initialization Shock and non linearities
Initialization shock
22
Initialization shock and non linearities
23
Pacific Panel Input

General proposal
0. Scientific Questions
1. Process oriented metrics (with/without
observations)
2. Generic (blanket) metrics (with/without
observations)
METRICS and/or DIAGNOSTICS?
Ongoing work on ENSO metrics to evaluate climate
models (Pacific Panel, Eric Guilyardi).

24
CORE-II draft proposal from Pacific Panel
(summary I)

Relevant scientific questions
Which processes control the SST off the South
American coast, and why models are not able to
represent it correctly? Link to VOCALS
Which are the determining factors for ocean
models to represent the depth and slope in
equatorial thermocline?
What controls the intensity and extension of the
cold tongue?
What is the heat budget of the warm pool?
What determines the Equatorial heat content? What
are the ocean heat and fresh water transports at
the equator?
Which is the origin of the water masses in the
Indonesian Troughflow (ITF), which will determine
the ITF heat and fresh water transports.?
Which is the heat transport done by Tropical
Instability Waves?
SPICE science questions?
Equatorial currents. Tsuchiya jets.
Barrier Layer.

25
CORE-II draft proposal from Pacific Panel
(summary II)

1 Relevant metrics for process studies
1.1 Observed
Depth of the 20D isotherm along the Equator
Mean, SVD, RMS/RMSE, and ACC (TAO/TRITON
observations).
Structure of the Tropical Instability Waves
(TWI) Power spectra as a function of latitude
(Altimeter data and SST)
Indonesian Throughflow (IT) Volume transport,
Water mass properties of the waters in that
region. (Verifying observations?)
Barrier Layer (Maes et al,)
South American Upwelling VOCALS area SST,
upwelling, meridional velocityVerifying
observations Stratus BUOY, Stratus cruise.
SPICE Region U,V,T,S. There will be verifying
observations

26
CORE-II draft proposal from Pacific Panel
(summary II)

1 Relevant metrics for process studies
1.2 Non Observed
Heat and volume transports by TWIs
Heat budget in the warm pool region
Indonesian Throughflow heat and fresh water mass
transport.
Origin of waters in the IT?
Trends in the Equatorial Circulation?
..

27
CORE-II draft proposal from Pacific Panel
(summary III)

2. Generic metrics
2.1 Observed
Temperature and Salinity profiles in prescribed
areas (to include attachment with Pacific_areas),
compared with observations. Mean, SDV, mean
difference/error and RMS/RMSE.
T/S Observations are from WOA05 or from the
Hadley Centre EN3.
T/S and Currents profiles at TAO/TRITON mooring
location. Mean, SDV, mean difference/error,
RMS/RMSE and ACCTAO/TRITON observations.
2.2 Non observed (comparable with reanalysis and
obs-only analysis)
Zonal sections along the Equator of T,S,U,V,W
Mean, SDV, mean difference, RMS.
Meridional sections or T,S,U,V,W Mean, SDV, mean
difference, RMS. Longitudes 137E, 165E,
180,140W, 110W, 95W
Others...

28
EXPLOITATION OF THE ENSEMBLES DATA SET

In preparation for the CMIP5 integrations
There is a good set of MULTI-MODEL decadal
integrations.
Data on a OpenDap server (common grid, CF
compliant)
http//ensembles.ecmwf.int/thredds/catalog.html
http//www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/ENSEMBLE
S/data/index.html
Output from Ocean and Atmosphere predictions and
Ocean Initial Conditions (ocean reanalysis)
Opportunity to investigate Pacific Decadal
Predictability/Prediction?..ENSO behaviour

29
Example forecast anomalies of ocean temperature

Ocean-point (70N-60S) SST anomaly (2-year
running mean applied) from ENSEMBLES hindcasts.
REFERENCE is ERA40/OPS.
Results from 2 of these models have been
published in Nature/Science. Spot which ones

HadGEM2 (3 members)
ECHAM5/OM1 (3 members)
DePreSys_PP (9 members)
ARPEGE4/OPA (3 members)
Results produced by F. Doblas -Reyes
30
IFS/HOPE impact of ocean observations
Global mean near-surface air temperature anomaly
(2-year running mean applied) from the ECMWF
re-forecasts. ERA40/OPS is used as a reference.
The mean systematic error has been removed over
the period 1960-2005.
IFS/HOPE NoObs
31
Estimation of the Atlantic MOC
Assimilation No-Data Bryden etal 2005 Cunningham
etal 2007
From Balmaseda etal 2007
32
IFS/HOPE impact of ocean observations
Zonally integrated across the Atlantic meridional
water velocity (103 m2/s) from the ECMWF ocean
re-analysis (left) and the mean of the ten ECMWF
re-forecasts Assim (centre) and NoObs (right).
27N
Profiles below 150m
36N
33
Perceived Paradigm for initialization of coupled
forecasts
Real world
Model attractor
Medium range Being close to the real world is
perceived as advantageous. Model retains
information for these time scales. Model
attractor and real world are close?
Decadal or longer Need to initialize the model
attractor on the relevant time and spatial
scales. Model attractor different from real
world.
Seasonal? Somewhere in the middle?
At first sight, this paradigm would not allow a
seamless prediction system.

Experiments
Uncoupled SST Wind Stress Ocean Observations
(ALL)
Uncoupled SST Wind Stress (NO-OCOBS)
Coupled SST (SST-ONLY) (Keenlyside et al
2008, Luo et al 2005)

34
Impact of real world information on skill
NINO3.4 RMS ERROR ALL NO-OCOBS SST-ONLY
Adding information about the real world improves
ENSO forecasts
From Balmaseda and Anderson 2009
35
Impact of real world information on skill
36
Impact of Initialization
Eastern Pacific
ALL NO-OCOBS SST-ONLY
DRIFT

Drift and Variability depend on Initialization !!
More information corrects for model error, and
the information is retained during the fc.
Need more balanced initialization methods to
prevent initialization shock hitting non
linearities

VARIABILITY

Relation between drift and Amplitude of
Interannual variability.
Possible non linearity is the warm drift
interacting with the amplitude of ENSO?

37
Initialization Shock and non linearities
Initialization shock
38
Initialization shock and non linearities
39
Pacific Panel Input

General proposal
0. Scientific Questions
1. Process oriented metrics (with/without
observations)
2. Generic (blanket) metrics (with/without
observations)
METRICS and/or DIAGNOSTICS?
Ongoing work on ENSO metrics to evaluate climate
models (Pacific Panel, Eric Guilyardi).

40
CORE-II draft proposal from Pacific Panel
(summary I)

Relevant scientific questions
Which processes control the SST off the South
American coast, and why models are not able to
represent it correctly? Link to VOCALS
Which are the determining factors for ocean
models to represent the depth and slope in
equatorial thermocline?
What controls the intensity and extension of the
cold tongue?
What is the heat budget of the warm pool?
What determines the Equatorial heat content? What
are the ocean heat and fresh water transports at
the equator?
Which is the origin of the water masses in the
Indonesian Troughflow (ITF), which will determine
the ITF heat and fresh water transports.?
Which is the heat transport done by Tropical
Instability Waves?
SPICE science questions?
Equatorial currents. Tsuchiya jets.
Barrier Layer.

41
CORE-II draft proposal from Pacific Panel
(summary II)

1 Relevant metrics for process studies
1.1 Observed
Depth of the 20D isotherm along the Equator
Mean, SVD, RMS/RMSE, and ACC (TAO/TRITON
observations).
Structure of the Tropical Instability Waves
(TWI) Power spectra as a function of latitude
(Altimeter data and SST)
Indonesian Throughflow (IT) Volume transport,
Water mass properties of the waters in that
region. (Verifying observations?)
Barrier Layer (Maes et al,)
South American Upwelling VOCALS area SST,
upwelling, meridional velocityVerifying
observations Stratus BUOY, Stratus cruise.
SPICE Region U,V,T,S. There will be verifying
observations

42
CORE-II draft proposal from Pacific Panel
(summary II)

1 Relevant metrics for process studies
1.2 Non Observed
Heat and volume transports by TWIs
Heat budget in the warm pool region
Indonesian Throughflow heat and fresh water mass
transport.
Origin of waters in the IT?
Trends in the Equatorial Circulation?
..

43
CORE-II draft proposal from Pacific Panel
(summary III)

2. Generic metrics
2.1 Observed
Temperature and Salinity profiles in prescribed
areas (to include attachment with Pacific_areas),
compared with observations. Mean, SDV, mean
difference/error and RMS/RMSE.
T/S Observations are from WOA05 or from the
Hadley Centre EN3.
T/S and Currents profiles at TAO/TRITON mooring
location. Mean, SDV, mean difference/error,
RMS/RMSE and ACCTAO/TRITON observations.
2.2 Non observed (comparable with reanalysis and
obs-only analysis)
Zonal sections along the Equator of T,S,U,V,W
Mean, SDV, mean difference, RMS.
Meridional sections or T,S,U,V,W Mean, SDV, mean
difference, RMS. Longitudes 137E, 165E,
180,140W, 110W, 95W
Others...