Uncertainty of spatial-temporal frontiers

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Uncertainty of spatial-temporal frontiers of
socio-economic systems, state identity, economic
forecasting case of Russia Georgy
Kleyner Deputy Director of Central Economics and
Mathematics Institute, Moscow

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Introduction (1)

• ?The aim of my presentation is to acquaint you
  with the new theoretical and methodological
  approach to the analysis of social and economic
  systems of various level. This approach is
  developing within several last years in Central
  Economics and Mathematics Institute of the
  Russian Academy of Sciences.
• ? The method was applied to analysis of the
  enterprises, and to the analysis of investment
  projects, strategic planning, corporate
  governance, and other systems. It can be applied
  to the analysis the features and future of the
  countries.
• ? So wide sphere of application is explained by
  the given approach is based on a new paradigm in
  the economic science recently offered by J.Kornai
  a system paradigm.

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Introduction (2)

• ? Economic evolution of the countries is mainly
  defined by basic features, invariants of the
  country.
• ? The ordinary approach to the comparative
  analysis of countries is the efficiency
  analysis, i.e. comparison of economic results
  with expenses. The countries are compared on GDP
  per capita, on square meter of territory etc. On
  this indicator all countries can be located on
  one axis. Then it is clear, and than we can speak
  about catching up development.
• ? The other method is the effectiveness
  analysis, i.e. comparison of the reached results
  with objects in view. But their purposes of the
  country can be subjective. Is it possible to
  avoid subjectivity? Basically it is possible, if
  these purposes represent the mission of the
  country. But can we speak about the mission of
  the country? In our opinion, we can.

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Plan of the presentation

• 1. System paradigm in economics
• 2. Basic typology of economic systems
• 3. The core competences of systems of different
  types
• 4. The case of Russia

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System paradigm

• ? The essence of a system paradigm is that
  economy functioning is considered from the point
  of view of processes of creation, interactions,
  transformations and liquidations of economic
  systems. As system we will understand rather
  steady in space and in time a part of the world
  around possessing properties of external
  integrity and internal variety
• ? Economic systems are systems, creating and
  functioning to provide processes of production,
  distribution, an exchange and consumption of the
  goods.
• ? The enterprises, regions and countries are
  examples of economic systems. But it is possible
  to speak about systems and in connection with
  environments, institutions, processes, projects
  etc.

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System frontiers

• ? At the beginning it is necessary to define
  basic characteristics of the systems for the
  classification. The basic characteristics should
  concern first of all features of a border of the
  system in the spatial-time continuum.
• ? One can see that different systems have
  different degree the definiteness of the natural
  border system. Such system as the enterprise, as
  a rule, has the fixed spatial border, and has no
  fixed time border (according to a principle o
  ngoing concern). Economic systems of
  institutions (for example, the Civil code), have
  no neither certain spatial, nor certain time
  border. On the contrary, projects, i.e. the sets
  of the actions directed on achievement of the
  concrete goal (examle building), as a rule, have
  definite border in time and in space.

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System frontiers coordinate illustration

• ? Let's set co-ordinates axises (p, q) where the
  axis of abscisses reflects the degree of
  uncertainty of spatial border p(s) of the systems
  s, and axis of ordinates q reflect the degree of
  uncertainty of time borders q(s). Every system s
  can be displayed in the form of a point (p (s), q
  (s)) on this co-ordinate plane.
• ? p 8 is the case of full uncertainty of the
  spatial borders of the system,
• ? p -8 is the case of full definiteness of the
  spatial borders of the system,
• ? q 8 is the case of full uncertainty of the
  time borders of the system,
• ? q -8 is the case of full definiteness of the
  time borders of the system,
• ? p q 0 is the case of normal degree of
  definiteness of the time and spatial borders of
  the system (From the point of view of an
  observer).
• Real economic system combines the properties of
  object, environment, process and project
  systems.

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Basic typology of economic systems. Examples
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System paradigm basic typology of economic
systems
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One consequence from basic typology of systems
typical products of economic systems

• Typical products of activity of object systems
  are the goods.
• Typical products of activity of environment
  systems are service.
• Typical products of activity of process systems
  are works.
• Typical products of activity of project systems
  are transformations of economic systems.

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General functions of economic systems

• ? For the description of the basic functions of
  economic systems we set system so-called variety
  characteristics of economic space. We will speak
  about uniformity of space if moving from one area
  in another only slightly changes economic
  indicators. We will speak about uniformity of
  time if moving from one period in another only
  slightly changes economic indicators. Accordingly
  there are characteristics of heterogeneity of
  space and time.
• ? The functioning of economic systems of
  different types changes these variety
  characteristics
• ? Object systems reduce uniformity of space and
  increase uniformity of time.
• ? Environment systems increase uniformity and
  spaces, and time.
• ?Process systems increase uniformity of space and
  reduce uniformity of time.
• ? At last, project systems reduce uniformity and
  spaces, and time.

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Core competences of economic systems (black
arrows basic functions, transparent arrows
additional functions)
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Core economic functions of economic systems of
different types

• Mission of object systems is the organization of
  diverse elements in a single whole during regular
  production.
• Mission of environment systems is communications
  and coordination, creation of conditions for an
  exchange between various components of economy,
  including transactions.
• Mission of process systems is harmonization of
  activity and a condition of all economic systems.
  
• Mission of project systems is innovative
  transformation, power feed of other kinds of
  systems.

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Examples of different types of countries.
Mission of Russia

•  
• ?USA is project system
• ? Japan is object system
• ? China is process system
• ? Russia is environment system.
• ? So, Russia is the environment country. The huge
  territory, intermediate position between the East
  and the West, between archaic and modern cultures
  determine specificity of Russia in the
  international community. Development of Russia
  goes in both directions to a modern society, on
  one side, and to archaic society, on other side.

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Conclusions. Mission of Russia/ And what is
the mission of you country?

•  
• ? Mission of Russia is to connect Europe and
  Asia, past and future. Russia represents an
  exhibition of times. One can find the archaic
  public fragments and modern elements of world
  future in Russia.
• ? Nearly always in the country Russia history the
  country had a mixed economy and the mixed
  society. External mission of Russia as
  environment county is a) to do the global world
  space more homogeneous, b) in the certain degree,
  the time more continuous and in whole to do the
  world more integral.

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• ? And what is the system type of your country?
• ? And what is the mission of your country?!
• Thank you for your attention!

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