Title: Conclusions and Summary
1Conclusions and Summary
- Once again Goals and Strategy
- Integration
- Within NCAR, nationally, and internationally
- Education
- Management and Budget
- Future Plans
2WCIAS Overarching Goal
- To improve societys ability to manage weather
and climate risks by creating and providing
research tools and methods at the critical
frontiers of impact assessment science.
3Goals in Each Theme
1. To support improved responses to weather and
climate risks by understanding and characterizing
the uncertainties affecting the decision-making
process.
- 2. To increase the resilience of human
populations to extreme weather and climate events
through improved tools, modeling, and data.
3. To catalyze and nurture an interdisciplinary
research community studying the effects of
climate on human health.
4WCIAS Strategy
- Filling critical gaps in weather and climate
impact assessment science - Developing integrating methods
- Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece
- Promoting integration of assessment science
activities at NCAR, nationally, and
internationally
5Integration within NCAR
- CGD-ESIG-GSP (Flood project)
- CGD-GSP-RAP-ESIG (Integrated uncertainty
analysis in water resources) - Expanded role of GSP throughout NCAR
- Other initiatives (Biogeosciences, Water, Fire,
GIS)
6Divisional Budget Structure FY04
7Links to Other Initiatives
8Initiative Linkages
- Wildland Fire developed model to forecast
location of housing developments AI improves
predictive model by identifying sensitivity of
decisions to peoples understanding of fire risks
- Water Cycle across Scales plans to use CRCM
outputs in spatial scaling of extremes analysis
of future changes in floods and droughts - Cyberinfrastructure use of structure to develop
distribution system for high-resolution climate
scenarios
9Climate Variability and Uncertainty in Flood
Hazard Planning
Link between GIS and the Weather and Climate
Impact Assessment Initiatives Mapping rainfall
data to help better understand past flooding
events along Colorados Front Range Spatial and
temporal variability of extreme precipitation
events Good case for spatial statistics
Mary Downton, et al.
10Impacts Assessment
Land use/cover change
Biogeosciences
ESM
Climate Impacts on Hydrology Managed and
Unmanaged Ecosystems
Land Surface / Atmosphere Interaction
Atmosphere / Soil Carbon / Nitrogen Cycling
11Initiative Collaboration with the Wider Research
Community
- Significant involvement of university community
- NARCCAP integration across NCAR, Universities,
CCSP, and International Communities (and
highlighting CCSM) - Links with international programs (e.g., PIK,
Tyndall Centre)
12Recent University Participation
- Uncertainty R. Smith (U. North Carolina) M.
Mann (U. Virginia) L. Sloan (UC Santa Cruz) W.
Gutowski (Iowa State), P. Duffy (UC Berkeley), A.
Cullen (U. Washington), J. Feddema (U. Kansas) - Extremes P. Naveau (U. Colorado), E. Gruntfest
(U. Colorado), H. Brooks (U. Oklahoma) R. Smith
(U. North Carolina) - Climate and Health J. Patz (Johns Hopkins) M.
Wilson (U. Michigan) J. Mayer (U. Washington)
13NARCCAP North American Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program
Multiple AOGCM and RCM Climate Scenarios Project
over North America
- Main Goals
- Exploration of multiple uncertainties in regional
model and global climate model regional
projections - Development of multiple high- resolution regional
climate scenarios for use in impacts models
14NARCCAP Domain
15NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
HadCM3 link to European Prudence
GFDL
CCSM
CGCM3
1960-1990 current
2040-2070 future
Provide boundary conditions
CRCM Quebec, Ouranos
RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP
HadRM3 Hadley Centre
RSM Scripps
WRF NCAR/ PNNL
MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL
16Contributions to IPCC AR4
- Tebaldi et al. method being used as the main
method for integrating new AOGCM simulation
results on regional scale - WG 1 Technical Support Unit wishes to see other
global climate modeling groups perform SRES land
cover change experiments similar to WCIAS
Initiative
17Linkages with International Community
- Numerous international presentations (Europe,
Canada) - Formal links (MOUs) being established with PIK
and the Tyndall Centre
18Educational Components
- Climate and Health Program continuation of
interdisciplinary education program on climate
and health Climate and Health Summer Colloquium
(July 21-28, 2004) -
- Paleo Project includes subproject of Education
and Outreach educational display on paleo
climate (see poster)
19Climate and Health Colloquium
- Summer 2004 Sessions
- Climate and Climate Modeling
- Climate and Infectious Diseases
- Remote Sensing and GIS
- Heat Mortality and Air Pollution
- Societal Responses, Assessment
- and Communication
http//www.asp.ucar.edu/colloquium/2004/CH/index.h
tml
20Professional DevelopmentRoles of Early Career
Scientists
- Lisa Dilling (ESIG) AI project manager
- Caspar Amman (CGD) PI of paleo project
- Susi Moser and Lisa Dilling (ESIG) Leaders of
decision-making theme in WCIAS - Claudia Tebaldi (ESIG) Lead author on key
papers on regional climate probabilities - Dave Yates (RAP) Key role in hydrology modeling
in uncertainty theme - Rebecca Morss, Olga Wilhelmi (ESIG) Key
participants in flood project
21Intra-Initiative Learning
- Development of greater interdisciplinarity among
the participants in the WCIAS - This development is an ongoing process
- Catalyzes integration within NCAR
22Initiative Management and Planning
23General Planning Process of Assessment Initiative
- Four meetings with interested NCAR staff and
several ESIG- specific planning meetings held to
develop the three themes (second half of 2000 and
first half of 2001) - Consultation with external collaborators
- Written contributions from core group of
interested staff, including all ESIG scientists - Several document iterations
- One follow-up planning meeting held August 2001
- Several more detailed follow-up planning meetings
on individual themes held in September/October
2001 - Initial funding provided in FY 2002 (214K)
24Budget Structure by Theme
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28WCIAS Leverages Other Funds
- NASA, NOAA, NCAR ASP Climate and Health 92K
total - NSF Land cover data bases - 170K
- HARC Human dimensions of the Arctic - 60K
- NSF CMG Development of spatio-temporal and
multi-resolution methods for detection impacts of
volcanic and solar forcings in climate 300K - NOAA-OGP Scales of decision-making and the
carbon cycle 285K - DOE, NSF, NOAA various amounts for NARCCAP
- GSP program at NCAR various amounts
29Initiative Management
30Management Activities
- Monthly or bimonthly meetings
- Presentations on project work
- Discussions with project advisory board and leads
on project status, integration opportunities
across projects - Individual project meetings
- March 2003-March 2004 management activities lead
by Doug Nychka (Acting Director) and L. Dilling
(Project Manager)
31The (uncertain) Future
32FY05 Selected Plans
- Land Cover application of CLM/CCSM to SRES land
cover scenarios inclusion of urban area
expansion, interactive crop models, soil
degradation effects - Regional Probabilities of Climate Change
bivariate model, spatial correlation, expert
judgment of climate modelers for formation of
priors, role in IPCC use in impacts and for
decision-making (e.g., UKCIP)
33FY05 Selected Plans (cont.)
- Changes in extreme sea surface temperatures and
effects on coral reef health
- Further application of extreme value theory
- Analysis of heat waves (i.e., cluster maxima and
length) - Determination of field significance of extremes
- Detecting trends in extremes in observed data
34FY05 Selected Plans (cont.)
Decision-making focus
- NCAR-RISA Collaboration
- Presenting Uncertainty to Decision-Makers (Rand)
- Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to
Sea-Level Rise - Decision-Making at the Climate-Health Interface
- Societal Use of Weather Information
- Scales of Decision-Making
- Carbon flux management
- Water resource management
35Vision Future Plans
- Long term goals (5 years and beyond)
- NCAR is recognized as national/international
leader in Integrated Uncertainty Analysis
including Decision Making (ISSE) - NCAR creates a complete, integrated program on
extreme events (atmospheric science, statistics,
societal vulnerability, decision-making) - Climate and Health Annual Summer Colloquium
becomes world-class program in training students
in this interdisciplinary field
36Long-term Vision
To improve societys ability to manage weather
and climate risks by creating and providing
research tools and methods at the critical
frontiers of impact assessment science.
- The WCIAS Initiative fills a need to bridge
between - Global/regional modeling/observations and
regional assessments - Physical sciences knowledge and tools, and
environmental and social science - Science/academia and decision-makers
37Our Ongoing Commitment
-
- Conduct cutting-edge, innovative research at the
nexus of physical and social sciences - Build novel partnerships internally and
externally - Maintain NCARs high visibility at the regional,
national, and international levels to ensure that
needs for advancements in assessment science are
being met - Create innovative approaches to orient research
in assessment science toward decision-making as a
central focus
38Vulnerability
Decision-making
Global Models
Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science
Regional Assessment
Scenarios
Health and Ecology
Inter/national Assessment
Statistics and Physical Sciences