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Conclusions and Summary

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Title: Conclusions and Summary


1
Conclusions and Summary
  • Once again Goals and Strategy
  • Integration
  • Within NCAR, nationally, and internationally
  • Education
  • Management and Budget
  • Future Plans

2
WCIAS Overarching Goal
  • To improve societys ability to manage weather
    and climate risks by creating and providing
    research tools and methods at the critical
    frontiers of impact assessment science.

3
Goals in Each Theme
1. To support improved responses to weather and
climate risks by understanding and characterizing
the uncertainties affecting the decision-making
process.
  • 2. To increase the resilience of human
    populations to extreme weather and climate events
    through improved tools, modeling, and data.

3. To catalyze and nurture an interdisciplinary
research community studying the effects of
climate on human health.
4
WCIAS Strategy
  • Filling critical gaps in weather and climate
    impact assessment science
  • Developing integrating methods
  • Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece
  • Promoting integration of assessment science
    activities at NCAR, nationally, and
    internationally

5
Integration within NCAR
  • CGD-ESIG-GSP (Flood project)
  • CGD-GSP-RAP-ESIG (Integrated uncertainty
    analysis in water resources)
  • Expanded role of GSP throughout NCAR
  • Other initiatives (Biogeosciences, Water, Fire,
    GIS)

6
Divisional Budget Structure FY04
7
Links to Other Initiatives
8
Initiative Linkages
  • Wildland Fire developed model to forecast
    location of housing developments AI improves
    predictive model by identifying sensitivity of
    decisions to peoples understanding of fire risks
  • Water Cycle across Scales plans to use CRCM
    outputs in spatial scaling of extremes analysis
    of future changes in floods and droughts
  • Cyberinfrastructure use of structure to develop
    distribution system for high-resolution climate
    scenarios

9
Climate Variability and Uncertainty in Flood
Hazard Planning
Link between GIS and the Weather and Climate
Impact Assessment Initiatives Mapping rainfall
data to help better understand past flooding
events along Colorados Front Range Spatial and
temporal variability of extreme precipitation
events Good case for spatial statistics
Mary Downton, et al.
10
Impacts Assessment
Land use/cover change
Biogeosciences
ESM
Climate Impacts on Hydrology Managed and
Unmanaged Ecosystems
Land Surface / Atmosphere Interaction
Atmosphere / Soil Carbon / Nitrogen Cycling
11
Initiative Collaboration with the Wider Research
Community
  • Significant involvement of university community
  • NARCCAP integration across NCAR, Universities,
    CCSP, and International Communities (and
    highlighting CCSM)
  • Links with international programs (e.g., PIK,
    Tyndall Centre)

12
Recent University Participation
  • Uncertainty R. Smith (U. North Carolina) M.
    Mann (U. Virginia) L. Sloan (UC Santa Cruz) W.
    Gutowski (Iowa State), P. Duffy (UC Berkeley), A.
    Cullen (U. Washington), J. Feddema (U. Kansas)
  • Extremes P. Naveau (U. Colorado), E. Gruntfest
    (U. Colorado), H. Brooks (U. Oklahoma) R. Smith
    (U. North Carolina)
  • Climate and Health J. Patz (Johns Hopkins) M.
    Wilson (U. Michigan) J. Mayer (U. Washington)

13
NARCCAP North American Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program
Multiple AOGCM and RCM Climate Scenarios Project
over North America
  • Main Goals
  • Exploration of multiple uncertainties in regional
    model and global climate model regional
    projections
  • Development of multiple high- resolution regional
    climate scenarios for use in impacts models

14
NARCCAP Domain
15
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
HadCM3 link to European Prudence
GFDL
CCSM
CGCM3
1960-1990 current
2040-2070 future
Provide boundary conditions
CRCM Quebec, Ouranos
RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP
HadRM3 Hadley Centre
RSM Scripps
WRF NCAR/ PNNL
MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL
16
Contributions to IPCC AR4
  • Tebaldi et al. method being used as the main
    method for integrating new AOGCM simulation
    results on regional scale
  • WG 1 Technical Support Unit wishes to see other
    global climate modeling groups perform SRES land
    cover change experiments similar to WCIAS
    Initiative

17
Linkages with International Community
  • Numerous international presentations (Europe,
    Canada)
  • Formal links (MOUs) being established with PIK
    and the Tyndall Centre

18
Educational Components
  • Climate and Health Program continuation of
    interdisciplinary education program on climate
    and health Climate and Health Summer Colloquium
    (July 21-28, 2004)
  • Paleo Project includes subproject of Education
    and Outreach educational display on paleo
    climate (see poster)

19
Climate and Health Colloquium
  • Summer 2004 Sessions
  • Climate and Climate Modeling
  • Climate and Infectious Diseases
  • Remote Sensing and GIS
  • Heat Mortality and Air Pollution
  • Societal Responses, Assessment
  • and Communication

http//www.asp.ucar.edu/colloquium/2004/CH/index.h
tml
20
Professional DevelopmentRoles of Early Career
Scientists
  • Lisa Dilling (ESIG) AI project manager
  • Caspar Amman (CGD) PI of paleo project
  • Susi Moser and Lisa Dilling (ESIG) Leaders of
    decision-making theme in WCIAS
  • Claudia Tebaldi (ESIG) Lead author on key
    papers on regional climate probabilities
  • Dave Yates (RAP) Key role in hydrology modeling
    in uncertainty theme
  • Rebecca Morss, Olga Wilhelmi (ESIG) Key
    participants in flood project

21
Intra-Initiative Learning
  • Development of greater interdisciplinarity among
    the participants in the WCIAS
  • This development is an ongoing process
  • Catalyzes integration within NCAR

22
Initiative Management and Planning
23
General Planning Process of Assessment Initiative
  • Four meetings with interested NCAR staff and
    several ESIG- specific planning meetings held to
    develop the three themes (second half of 2000 and
    first half of 2001)
  • Consultation with external collaborators
  • Written contributions from core group of
    interested staff, including all ESIG scientists
  • Several document iterations
  • One follow-up planning meeting held August 2001
  • Several more detailed follow-up planning meetings
    on individual themes held in September/October
    2001
  • Initial funding provided in FY 2002 (214K)

24
Budget Structure by Theme
25
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26
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27
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28
WCIAS Leverages Other Funds
  • NASA, NOAA, NCAR ASP Climate and Health 92K
    total
  • NSF Land cover data bases - 170K
  • HARC Human dimensions of the Arctic - 60K
  • NSF CMG Development of spatio-temporal and
    multi-resolution methods for detection impacts of
    volcanic and solar forcings in climate 300K
  • NOAA-OGP Scales of decision-making and the
    carbon cycle 285K
  • DOE, NSF, NOAA various amounts for NARCCAP
  • GSP program at NCAR various amounts

29
Initiative Management
30
Management Activities
  • Monthly or bimonthly meetings
  • Presentations on project work
  • Discussions with project advisory board and leads
    on project status, integration opportunities
    across projects
  • Individual project meetings
  • March 2003-March 2004 management activities lead
    by Doug Nychka (Acting Director) and L. Dilling
    (Project Manager)

31
The (uncertain) Future
  • Near and Long-term

32
FY05 Selected Plans
  • Land Cover application of CLM/CCSM to SRES land
    cover scenarios inclusion of urban area
    expansion, interactive crop models, soil
    degradation effects
  • Regional Probabilities of Climate Change
    bivariate model, spatial correlation, expert
    judgment of climate modelers for formation of
    priors, role in IPCC use in impacts and for
    decision-making (e.g., UKCIP)

33
FY05 Selected Plans (cont.)
  • Changes in extreme sea surface temperatures and
    effects on coral reef health
  • Further application of extreme value theory
  • Analysis of heat waves (i.e., cluster maxima and
    length)
  • Determination of field significance of extremes
  • Detecting trends in extremes in observed data

34
FY05 Selected Plans (cont.)
Decision-making focus
  • NCAR-RISA Collaboration
  • Presenting Uncertainty to Decision-Makers (Rand)
  • Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to
    Sea-Level Rise
  • Decision-Making at the Climate-Health Interface
  • Societal Use of Weather Information
  • Scales of Decision-Making
  • Carbon flux management
  • Water resource management

35
Vision Future Plans
  • Long term goals (5 years and beyond)
  • NCAR is recognized as national/international
    leader in Integrated Uncertainty Analysis
    including Decision Making (ISSE)
  • NCAR creates a complete, integrated program on
    extreme events (atmospheric science, statistics,
    societal vulnerability, decision-making)
  • Climate and Health Annual Summer Colloquium
    becomes world-class program in training students
    in this interdisciplinary field

36
Long-term Vision
To improve societys ability to manage weather
and climate risks by creating and providing
research tools and methods at the critical
frontiers of impact assessment science.
  • The WCIAS Initiative fills a need to bridge
    between
  • Global/regional modeling/observations and
    regional assessments
  • Physical sciences knowledge and tools, and
    environmental and social science
  • Science/academia and decision-makers

37
Our Ongoing Commitment
  • Conduct cutting-edge, innovative research at the
    nexus of physical and social sciences
  • Build novel partnerships internally and
    externally
  • Maintain NCARs high visibility at the regional,
    national, and international levels to ensure that
    needs for advancements in assessment science are
    being met
  • Create innovative approaches to orient research
    in assessment science toward decision-making as a
    central focus

38
Vulnerability
Decision-making
Global Models
Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science
Regional Assessment
Scenarios
Health and Ecology
Inter/national Assessment
Statistics and Physical Sciences
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