NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP January 17-19 2006, NCEP DRAFT RECOMMENDATIONS Based on presentations, discussions and follow-up considerations March 31 2006

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NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOPJanuary 17-19 2006,
NCEP DRAFT RECOMMENDATIONS Based on
presentations, discussions and follow-up
considerationsMarch 31 2006
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OUTLINE

• Logistics
• Summary recommendations
• Specific recommendations
• Adaptive collection use of observations
• Ensemble-based data assimilation
• Representing model errors in ensemble forecasting
• Numerical modeling for high impact weather
  forecasting
• Socio-economic applications / IPY
• Background

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NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP - LOGISTICS

• First NOAA THORPEX Science Workshop
• 17-19 January 2006, NCEP
• 68 attendees including
• All 12 NOAA THORPEX PIs
• 10 teleconference participants
• 11 students / postdocs
• Goals
• Review progress in PIs research and related work
• Connect research operations
• Sessions on
• Ensemble-based data assimilation (Tue)
• Representing model errors in ensemble forecasting
  (Wed am)
• High-impact modeling / Weather-climate link (Wed
  pm)
• Adaptive collection use of observations (Thurs
  am)
• Socio-economic applications / International Polar
  Year (Thurs pm)
• Healthy interaction among scientists from

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NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP - SUMMARY

• Overall assessment
• Significant progress in THORPEX research
• Great interest from broad community within
  outside NOAA
• Immediate challenges
• Maintain / further develop interaction in various
  research focus areas
• Establish NOAA THORPEX Working Groups
• Lay out transition path from research to
  operations
• Wide ranging THORPEX global observing/DA/forecasti
  ng/application activities
• Scale of foreseen new transition work never
  before experienced
• Establish / maintain 2-way links between research
  operations
• Formulate criteria for consideration for
  operational implementation
• Logistics Codes / scripts / operational job
  flow considerations
• Quality Verification / evaluation standards
  Provide benchmarks
• Focus on group projects instead of individual
  efforts
• Most efficient - Filtering of ideas - Greatest
  payoff
• Formalize transition process
• Establish contact points for each research area
  at NCEP
• Acknowledge contributions whether or not accepted
  directly into operations
• Resource requirement (support transition
  activities at NCEP)

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NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP RESEARCH AREAS

• ADAPTIVE COLLECTION / USE OF OBSERVATIONS
• Observing system for global NWP is a sub-system
  of GEOSS
• Design of enhanced observing network
• Adaptive collection use of satellite in situ
  observations
• Four related NOAA THORPEX PI studies
• Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) at
  NOAA
• Establish Global Test Center functionality
• For testing new observing, DA, NWP/Ens,
  application procedures
• Facilitate use of real vs. simulated
  quasi-operational environment by PIs
• Under JCSDA
• Tentative timeline
• Studies commenced July 2004
• Continue research studies
• Establish Working Group on adaptive
  observations Oct 2006
• Develop adaptive radiosonde plan with NWS Nov
  2006
• Complete preliminary study Nov 2008
• Complete algorithm development Nov 2009
• Complete operational implementation Nov 2010
• Provide access to Global Test Center

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NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP RESEARCH AREAS

• ENSEMBLE-BASED DATA ASSIMILATION
• Ensemble-based data assimilation inter-comparison
  project
• Most developed NOAA THORPEX research project
• 3rd related workshop (following dedicated
  workshops in 1999 2003)
• 4 grants an unfunded collaborator
• Tentative timeline
• Project started July 2004
• Continue comparative development / evaluation /
  testing
• Start developing prototype ensemble-based DA
  scheme Jan 2007
• Synthesis of successful science/software PI
  initiatives
• Built on ESRL computers?
• Compatible with NCEP operational system
• Allows direct transition to NCEP
• Further testing on ESRL computers starts Jan
  2008
• Decision point Dec 2008
• Parallel testing starts at NCEP to prepare to
  either
• Implement new combined DA/ensemble system OR
• Enhance 3/4DVAR with improved ensemble
  information

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NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP RESEARCH AREAS

• REPRESENTING MODEL ERRORS IN ENSEMBLE FCSTING
• Relatively new research area
• New paradigm needed in NWP modeling
• Move from best single solution of past to
• Encompass all possible solutions in ensemble
  era
• Represent all model related uncertainty
• Truncation related random errors stochastic
  perturbations
• Systematic errors randomly vary model
  parameters, components, etc
• Strong interaction with NWP modelers is important
• Promising results presented
• Results form basis of more substantive
  collaboration among PIs
• 2 NOAA THORPEX PIs
• 3 other NOAA studies
• Tentative timeline
• Studies commenced July 2004
• Continue research studies
• Start collaborative project on representing model
  errors Oct 2006
• Develop straw-person plan for possible
  operational use July 2007

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NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP RESEARCH AREAS

• NUMERICAL MODELING FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
  FORECASTING
• Study best approach to regionally increasing
  model resolution
• Enhanced resolution global, or regional Limited
  Area Model approach?
• One NOAA THORPEX PI on enhanced resolution
  quality, costs?
• High impact modeling application
• Related (not THORPEX funded) NOAA efforts
• Sea ice modeling Ocean wave ensemble Snow pack
  / land state modeling
• River flow applications link with HEPEX
• Weather/climate links in regional modeling (WRF)
• Link with International Polar Year developments
• New forecast applications
• Incorporate mature elements in NAEFS
• Some tools to be tested during IPY (Mar 07 Feb
  09) if possible
• Tentative timeline
• Studies started July 2004
• Continue research/development
• Form Working Group Feb 2007
• Adaptive grid modeling - Initial report Dec
  2006
• Further evaluate global/regional modeling
  options Dec 2008

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NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP RESEARCH AREAS

• SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS / IPY
• Analysis of US household use of and benefit from
  weather forecasts
• One NOAA THORPEX PI study
• Need analysis of benefits for various economic
  sectors, eg, water management
• NAEFS forecast applications during IPY in
  general Great interest
• NCEP Service Center Alaska Region participation
• NAEFS is operational delivery mechanism for all
  THORPEX research
• Statistical bias correction
• Addition of FNMOC (and possibly JMA, UKMET)
• Additional high impact products (eg, freezing
  spray)
• THORPEX baseline and performance targets linked
  with NAEFS
• Long term plan Automatic production of prob.
  fcsts, with human inspection
• Communicating forecast uncertainty
• Roundtable discussion
• Addition of forecasts associated with 10 90
  percentiles in forecast pdf recommended
• Fields to be offered for inclusion in NDGD
• Tentative timeline
• Studies commenced July 2004
• Continue research / development studies

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BACKGROUND
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WHAT IS THORPEX?

• 10-YEAR WMO-SPONSORED RESEARCH PROGRAM
• OBJECTIVE
• Accelerate improvements in skill utility of
  1-14 day high impact weather forecasts
• Weather forecast component of GEOSS
• RESEARCH AREAS
• Observing System
• Data Assimilation
• Predictability / NWP
• Socioeconomic Applications
• APPROACH
• Enhanced collaboration on national, regional,
  international levels
• Between research and operational communities
• Among experts working on four components of
  forecast process
• Within operational community Global Interactive
  Forecast System (GIFS)
• ORGANIZATION
• International level Under WMO IPO, 6 WGs, etc
  Michel Beland David Burridge

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NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM

• FOCUS
• Accelerate improvements in 3-14 day high impact
  probabilistic weather forecasts
• ORGANIZATION
• Under Weather Water Goal, STI, with link to
  EMP LFW
• NOAA THORPEX Executive Council Rick Rosen
• NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee Zoltan
  Toth
• APPROACH
• Grants External community (12 NOAA grants)
• Directed research - NOAA Labs
• Transition to operations Global Test Center
  (JCSDA link), NCEP - NAEFS
• Weather Climate link
• FUNDING
• 1.23M (Current) 2.3M (Presidents request)
  5M (Goal)

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PATH FROM THORPEX RESEARCH TO NOAA OPERATIONS
BASIC RESEARCH
APPLIED RESEARCH
TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS
NOAA OPERATIONS
PHASE
Answer Science Questions
Develop Methods
Prepare for Implementation
Generate Products
What?
External investigators
NOAA Laboratories
Global Test Center / NCEP
NCEP Central Operations
Who?
NSF, DOD, NASA
Financial Support?
NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM
NOAA NWS
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NOAA THORPEX RESEARCH GRANTS
GRANTS DISTRIBUTION

• University groups 5
• NCAR 1
• Private sector 2

NASA 1 (0) ONR/NRL 2 NOAA 1 (2)
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NOAA THORPEX ACTIVITIES

• RESEARCH PROJECTS
• Adaptive collection use of observations (PARC,
  OSSE) Thurs am
• Ensemble-based data assimilation Tue am-pm
• Representing model errors in ensemble
  forecasting Wedn am
• High impact modeling (enhanced resol., sea ice /
  wave, etc) Wedn pm
• Socioeconomic applications (IPY) Thurs pm
• PATH TO OPERATIONS
• North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
• MSCNMSMNWS multi-center ensemble
• Operational implementation in March/April 2006
• Prototype / component of future international
  GIFS system
• ESMF connection
• All research must directly connect with NAEFS
  system
• PERFORMANCE MEASURE
• Rate of improvement doubled in NAEFS
  probabilistic forecast scores
• PQPF
• Extreme temperature

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EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS
ANIMATION

• Why forecast signal is lost beyond 10-day lead
  time?
• How can predictability be extended?
• Better/more observations?
• Better data assimilation scheme?
• Better numerical model?
• Better ensemble techniques?

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EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS
ANIMATION

• Why forecast signal lost at 9-day lead?
• How can predictability be extended? Better
• Better/more observations?
• Better data assimilation scheme?
• Better numerical model?
• Better ensemble techniques?

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ANIMATION
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NEW THORPEX NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PARADIGM
INTEGRATED DATA ASSIMILATION FORECASTING
GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
TEST CENTER
GLOBAL INTERACTIVE FORECAST SYSTEM (GIFS)
Days 15-60
NWS OPERATIONS
CLIMATE FORECASTING / CTB
GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
SOCIOECON.
SYSTEM
TEST CENTER
MODEL ERRORS HIGH IMPACT MODELING
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NOAA THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
NOAA THORPEX Funding
NOAA THORPEX Grantee
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NOAAS INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

• 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of
  NOAA scientists
• Apr 2000 First International Meeting
• Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science
  Steering Committee formed
• Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
• Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting
• Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and
  Implementation Plan
• Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee
  formed
• Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment
• Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of
  Opportunity
• Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received