The Desk Research Presentation

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The Desk Research Presentation

• Mariam Darchiashvili
• Chavchavadze State University, Georgia

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Content

• Introducing the university
• Discussing problems in election surveys
• Assuming Georgian voters profile along with
  statistical data

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• Some facts and figures about the university
• 200 professors, 110 researchers, 8000 students
• 10 faculties, 2 colleges
• Best annual research rate among Georgian
  universities and institutions
• More than 30 active research projects
• Highest annual salary rates among high education
  of Georgia
• 14 of the annual consolidated budget allocated
  for research
• International peer reviewed publications
• Internationally recognized textbooks translated
  into Georgian
• Partnership with the following universities and
  research centers University of Idaho Zoological
  Museum of Bonn Free University of Brussels
  University of Limerick, Ireland Suleiman Demirel
  University, Turkey Vilnius College of Higher
  Education, Lithuania Universidad Autonoma de
  Madrid, Spain University of Groningen,
  Netherlands University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA
  Center for Science and Technologies in Ukraine
  University of Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania University
  of California - Berkley (Research project in
  Biophysics) Johns Hopkins University University
  of Vienna Max Planck Institute Berlin
  University of Pennsylvania etc.
• 2 Marine Research Centers

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Brief Introduction of Chavchavadze State
University
List of the researches and studies carried out at
Chavchvadze State University
Caucasus Biodiversity research using
Molecular-Genomic Methods Astronomic and
Astrophysical studies (including
Archeo-astronomy, only in the Black Sea and
Caucasus region) Seismic Researches of Georgia
and Caucasus region Researches in Black Sea
Biology and Archeology Metal and Bacteria
interrelations (with Berkley University
Biophysics Lab) Regional studies Caucasus and
the Black Sea Security Studies Identity
Studies Black Sea Identity Study with annual
international conference Soviet Studies Study
of political theology in Georgia - history and
nowadays Study of sexual behavior in Georgia.
Ilia Chavchavadze State University (Iliauni) was
established in 2006 on the basis of two higher
educational institutions - Ilia Chavchavadze
State University for Language and Culture and
Sulkhan Saba Orbeliani State Pedagogical
University. Although founded as recently as in
2006, Iliauni has been implementing a number of
large-scale projects and programs in the fields
of social sciences, humanities and natural
sciences.
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Problems in Political/Election surveys
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• Difficulties regarding political/election surveys
  are generally related to the fact that there are
  two international organizations in Georgia IRI
  (International Republican Institute) and NDI
  (National Democratic Institute) who mainly
  conduct such surveys in the way that they request
  local research centers for fieldworks. The
  problem is that such donor organizations hold
  ownership on surveys and leave a lot of
  significant information private.
• Political parties also conduct election surveys,
  but in this case also occurs the accessibility
  issue. They release results with no farther
  clarification and elaboration. Thus, one can
  hardly deal with methodology and sampling of such
  surveys.

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Problems during political/election surveys

• In contrast with other type of surveys it is
  common that respondents reject participating in
  political/election surveys. They appear to be
  more open and sincere in social, marketing type
  of surveys rather than political ones.
  Respondents especially avoid rating politicians
  or showing their political sympathy. It can be
  assumed that today people in Georgia are
  preoccupied with politics at least partially
  caused by media or continuous street actions.
• For receiving the desired information out of the
  survey there is a need of well trained
  interviewers as well as well composed
  questionnaires. Sociologist work hard that
  questions started with general issues for
  preparing respondents for more concretization.

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How rejection on interviews affects the quality
of the survey

• Generally rejection on interviews does not affect
  the survey very much, since interviewers move
  towards other respondents with pre-determined
  Step Size. It is a regulated issue.
• Despite the fact that respondents are not fond of
  speaking about politics there are many ways of
  persuading them.
• Most importantly interviewers must be trained and
  prepared for all types of respondents. They must
  have skills of gaining trust with relevant tone
  and spirit.

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Determining respondents as participants of
elections

• There is a group of questions in the
  questionnaire analyzing of which leads us to
  logical conclusions whether certain respondent
  will participate in elections or not.
• It is common that respondent avoids direct
  question as whether he/she will vote, but other
  questions defining his/her political
  attitudes/behaviors help us find out about
  his/her electoral decisions. With direct
  questions it is often impossible to gain a
  precise information.

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• Georgian voters profile

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• Survey respondents are more or less interested in
  politics, moreover they are politically active so
  that they will participate in elections even if
  it were held the next day.
• Respondents are undecided either about
  candidates/parties or general issues related to
  politics.
• Respondents are neutral in most cases as they do
  not appear to be strictly positive or negative on
  issues presented bellow. Respondents seem more to
  be grouping problems rather than distinguishing
  some more than others.
• Compared to previous elections respondents reveal
  positive expectations towards the next one.
• One reason for this improved confidence in the
  May 21 election may be the various electoral
  reforms that have been implemented since the
  January 3 election.
• Despite respondents dislike to many issues, they
  seem to be voting for stability than radical
  changes. It can be assumed as though they
  complain a lot, they vote for the existing
  governmental power.

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Briefly about active vs. passive voter

• Passive voter often rejecting questions,
  avoding naming candidates, undecided about
  general political situation, avoding rating
  politicians.
• Active voter has a selected candidate of whom
  she/he speaks openly, decided about political
  positions, quick and clear in rating politicians.

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Survey data By BCG Research, Tbilisi, 4960
interviews April, 2008

• BCG - Business Consulting Group Research is full
  service Marketing Research Agency operating both
  in the public and private sector, covering entire
  Georgia as well as conducting researches in
  Armenia and Azerbaijan.

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The survey shows that 64 of respondents will
definitely participate in elections if it were
held in the following week, 18,20 may
participate, 5,20 may participate, 4,50 will
definitely not participate, while 7,70 are
undecided whether they will participate in
elections.
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Survey Data Carried out by CRRC for NDI,
Public attitudes towards elections in Georgia
2008 Research has been conducted in three waves
April 2228 interviews July 2152 interviews
November 2480 interviews Margin of error /-
3

• NDI is a non-profit, non-partisan,
  nongovernmental organization that has supported
  democratic institutions and practices in every
  region of the world for more than two decades.

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51 of survey respondents will definitely
participate in elections in contrast with 11
who will definitely not participate in elections
if it were held tomorrow. 16 of respondents are
undecided while 3 reject the question stated.
Range of numbers bellow represent 9 definitely
participating in elections, 2 - definitely not
participating.
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Bellow is the data how survey respondents would
vote if parliamentary elections were held
tomorrow. The rating is leaded by UND 27 (first
choice) and CDM 25 (second choice). It is also
worth mentioning 38 reject answering the
question, which means that they are either
undecided or avoid naming the chosen party.
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54 of respondents consider problems with
voters lists as the biggest barrier to free and
fair elections. One person voting for other
people and public officials campaigning on behalf
of one party is equally problematic for 20 of
the respondents. Budget money being unfairly used
in elections, voters feeling of losing jobs
unless they vote in certain way, harassment of
party activists, unequal access of election
candidates to media and bribing the voters is
also grouped together as a barrier for free/fair
elections, having 14 .
19

• in the July data 25 of respondents say not to
  be receiving enough information about the parties
  they are supporting, when 65 of survey
  respondents are against of such an opinion.
• November survey data shows that 44 of
  respondents say to be receiving enough
  information from the media since May elections
  about the parties they support in contrast with
  36 answering the same question negatively.

In July data 25 of respondents think that
candidates/parties have an equal access to media,
when 14 of survey respondents are negative
about the issue November survey shows 18 of
respondents think that unequal access to media
for some candidates or parties did not happen in
contrast with 11 thinking it to be widespread.
20

• On question about how the parliamentary elections
  will be/were conducted respondents answer the
  following way

21
Survey DataBy CRRC 2550 interviews
November-December,2008Georgia The Caucasus
Research Resource Centres program (CRRC) is a
network of resource, research and training
centres established in the capital cities of
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia with the goal of
strengthening social science research and public
policy analysis in the South Caucasus.
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Interest in international politics
Interest in national politics
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Interest in local politics
Interest in countrys foreign policy
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Interest in domestic policy
Interest in local policy
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Party Ratings

Opinion Poll - Commissioned by four television
stations and conducted by Ilia Chavchavadze State
University, the Caucasus Institute for Peace,
Democracy and Development, the Georgian Institute
of Public Affairs, and the Georgian Foundation
for Strategic and International Studies, in
cooperation with US, Estonia, and Ukrainian
experts. Exit Poll - Conducted by Greenberg
Quinlan Rosner on behalf of United National
Movements campaign the figures above reflect
the results of polling work conducted from April
29 May 2.
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Survey DataGreenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
for the United National Movement fieldworks by
ACT Research 1,200 interviews, May 8-12, 2008

• Greenberg Quinlan Rosner is the world's premium
  research and strategic consulting firm, working
  with corporations, issue groups and political
  campaigns throughout the United States and around
  the world.

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• The survey shows that among all Georgian adults,
  in the vote on the party lists, the UNM has the
  support of 43 percent, compared to 14 percent for
  the Christian Democratic Movement, 11 percent for
  the United National Council, 5 percent for the
  Labor Party of Georgia, and 2 percent for the
  Republican Party 21 percent are undecided.
  Figure1

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• Looking only at the 53 percent of voters who are
  most likely to vote on May 21, the UNMs support
  grows to 51 percent, while the Christian
  Democratic Movement earns 11 percent, the United
  National Council receives 10 percent, the Labor
  Party earns 5 percent, and the Republicans
  attract 3 percent.  Among these likely voters, 19
  percent are undecided.  Figure 2

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• By examining their responses to other questions
  in the survey, it is possible to project how this
  block of 19 percent likely but undecided voters
  would most likely cast their ballots.  Once we
  allocate the undecided likely voters in this
  manner, the National Movement emerges with 54
  percent of the vote, with 19 percent for the
  United Opposition Council, 17 percent for the
  Christian Democratic Movement, 6 percent for the
  Labor Party, and 4 percent (which would be below
  the threshold for gaining parliamentary seats)
  for the Republican Party.  These figures
  represent our best estimate of the race going
  into the final 9 days of the campaign.  Figure
  3

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• To assess the vote for candidates in the 75
  single-member districts, the survey conducted a
  named ballot test that is, in each district
  survey respondents were presented with a choice
  among the actual names of the candidates running
  in that district.  This named ballot test shows
  the United National Movement winning 48 percent
  of the votes across all districts among all
  adults, and 56 percent of the vote among likely
  voters.  Figure 4  If the United National
  Movement earns the kinds of majorities that this
  survey projects for both the party list vote and
  the single member district votes, the party would
  emerge with a strong majority of seats in the
  next Parliament, and potentially a two-thirds
  majority.

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• The May 12 survey also shows that a strong
  majority of the public expects the May 21
  elections to be more free and fair than the
  January 3 presidential election.  Among all
  adults, 63 percent expect the May 21 voting to be
  more free and fair the figure among likely
  voters is 68 percent.  Figure 5

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• We test four different reforms that have been put
  in place since then making voter lists available
  for public scrutiny lowering the threshold at
  which parties win seats in parliament based on
  the party list vote, down from 7 percent to 5
  percent changing the composition of the
  parliament to include 75 seats selected by
  national list, and 75 selected in single-member
  districts and ending same-day voter
  registration.  Each of these leads a majority of
  the public to feel that it will make the May 21
  voting more free and fair.  Figure 6

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• To conclude, it is very interesting to evaluate
  the situation in dynamics, having data of
  different time periods and making comparisons.
  Most importantly for a sound study it is
  essential having data of similar methodology,
  time frame and questionnaires.
• Nevertheless having the data as presented here
  gives a good opportunity for making a farther
  qualitative study about relation of peoples
  perceptions to events that went through the same
  time that the surveys were conducted. It would be
  very interesting to define what matters when it
  comes to forming public opinion.