Causation

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Causation

• Reasoning about how and why things happen

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The Main Issue in Causal ReasoningEvaluation
of statements asserting that one event causes
another

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The Main Issue in Causal ReasoningEvaluation
of statements asserting that one event causes
another
May be intended as a causal hypothesis
If I persistently and obnoxiously get in
someone's face, that will force them to take my
demands seriously.
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The Main Issue in Causal ReasoningEvaluation
of statements asserting that one event causes
another
May be intended as a causal hypothesis May be
intended as a conclusion based on observation or
inductive inference
Rewards are more effective in changing behavior
than punishments.
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Reasoning patterns that work

• Relevant difference reasoning

If an effect is present in one situation but not
present in other similar situations, consider
relevant differences as causes of the effect.
Screen for alternative causes.

• Common thread reasoning

If an effect is present in multiple situations,
consider as a cause any possible factor that is
present whenever the effect is present. Consider
alternative causes.
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Reasoning errors and patterns that dont work
well enough

• Post hoc fallacy

Occurs when the fact that one event occurred
before another is uncritically taken as
sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused
the later event

• Overlooking a common thread or cause
• Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences
• Overlooking possibility of reversed causation
• Asserting a wrong common cause
• Appealing to anecdotal evidence

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Problems in causal reasoning

• Circularity

Occurs when the statement of cause essentially
restates the effect, typically as a definition or
description Example The explosion was caused by
a rapid release of energy
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Problems in causal reasoning

• Circularity

Occurs when the statement of cause essentially
restates the effect, typically as a definition or
description

• Testability issues

Occur when the statement of cause is
inappropriately difficult or impossible to
falsify Example (from the not-too-distant past)
The illness is caused by tiny things that can't
be seen. Note that this causal claim turned out
to be right in some cases, but one would have
needed to do some good inductive reasoning to
justify this conclusion.
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Problems in causal reasoning

• Circularity

Occurs when the statement of cause essentially
restates the effect, typically as a definition or
description

• Testability issues

Occur when the statement of cause is
inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify

• Specificity issues

Occur when the statement of cause is
inappropriately vague, especially from use of
undefined terms Example The illness is caused
by a pathogenic agent.
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Problems in causal reasoning

• Circularity

Occurs when the statement of cause essentially
restates the effect, typically as a definition or
description

• Testability issues

Occur when the statement of cause is
inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify

• Specificity issues

Occur when the statement of cause is
inappropriately vague, especially from use of
undefined terms

• Inclusion of unnecessary assumptions

Theoretical point A simpler argument or
explanation is preferable to a more complex one,
all else bring equal.
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Problems in causal reasoning

• Circularity

Occurs when the statement of cause essentially
restates the effect, typically as a definition or
description

• Testability issues

Occur when the statement of cause is
inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify

• Specificity issues

Occur when the statement of cause is
inappropriately vague, especially from use of
undefined terms

• Inclusion of unnecessary assumptions

• Conflict with well-established theory

Critical thinking theory places the burden of
proof on new or unusual ideas
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Causal reasoning alternativesThere are several
ways to imagine causation.

• Materialism

All events have at least one physical/material
cause and no non-material cause.

• Single causation

Every effect has one and only one unique cause.
Directs attention to situations that can easily
change.

• Dependent co-arising (Buddhist)

At least two entities must participate in the
causation of any phenomenon, which is made
possible and determined by the natures of the
entities involved.

• Theory of changes (Chinese)

Situations have subtle essential structures that
tend to change in patterned ways, and visible
reality follows.