Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

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Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts
and Adaptation
Sonja Vidic Meteorological and Hydrological
Service of Croatia Overall responsibility for VA
in National Communication
For Workshop on the preparation of the fourth
national communication from annex I parties,
Dublin, 30 September 1. October, 2004
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Adaptation in UNFCCC, Kyoto
UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability
of ecosystems, food production and economic
development to adapt UNFCCC, Art. 4.1
facilitate adequate adaptation co-operate
in preparing for adaptation... UNFCCC, Art. 4.4,
4.8 assist developing country Parties that
are particularly vulnerable to the adverse
effects of climate change in meeting costs of
adaptation... Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate,
implementmeasures to facilitate adequate
adaptation...
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Adaptation to Climate Change
Adjustments in ecological, social or
economic systems in response to actual or
expected climate change stimuli, their effects or
impacts

• to reduce vulnerability
• to moderate damages
• to realize opportunities

By climate change we understand climate, climate
variability and induced climate change (natural
and anthropogenic).
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Vulnerability to Climate Change depends upon

• Exposure to Climate Change Risks
• and
• Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks

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VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE
CHANGE for NCR Croatian Case
22 scientists and experts working in 8
teams, coming from 10 Institutions
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Synthesis Main Assumptions and Findings
1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts How ?
Examples from present 2. Communities will adapt
autonomously, but not without costs How ?
Examples from present 3. The key features of
climate change are variabilities and
extremes Show, connect different sectors 4.
Planned adaptation measures usually have
immediate benefits How ? Examples from
present 5. Adaptations are likely to be
implemented only if they are integrated with
existing management and development
processes Examples from present
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Main Assumptions and Findings
6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among
countries and socio-economic groups Present
knowledge should be used to stress
important national circumstances 7. Development
activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they
tend to omit climate change risks Explain, give
examples from present knowledge 8. Enhancement of
adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce
vulnerability, especially for the most
vulnerable International co-operation ! 9.
Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive
capacity is insufficient
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The way forward
Continue to improve/exchange methods and
tools Closer co-operation among parties and more
direct exchange of experiences, framework that
will support it More integrated approach More
information for the assessment should come from
knowledge and data about present climate/adverse
climate events and related socio-economic
consequences
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The way forward
up to now
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The way forward