Risk and Resilience:A Canadian Perspective on Climate Change Adaptation

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SBSTA 20 Adaptation Workshop 18 June 2004 Bonn
Risk and Resilience A Canadian Perspective on
Climate Change Adaptation
Donald S. Lemmen, PhD Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptation Directorate Natural Resources Canada
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Outline
1 why perceptions matter 2 risk and
perceptions of risk in Canada 3 building
awareness and engagement to better manage risk 4
areas for enhanced information exchange

• Messages
• perceptions of risk and of capacity to adapt vary
  
• vulnerability to current climate at the local and
  regional level is often key to raising awareness
  of risk
• need to consider action in context of on-going
  decision-making processes

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Why Understanding Perception of Risk is Important

• Risk perception influences
• mitigative and adaptive responses to climate
  change
• the timing and magnitude of response
• the level of priority given to actions
• Risk perception includes
• probability and severity of the stress
• uncertainty
• ability to respond to the stress

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Current and Future Risks of Climate Change In
Canada
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Differing Perceptions of Risk due to Climate
Change
Areas where assessed risk, and perception of
risk, are well aligned

• where unprecedented climate impacts are observed
• northern ecosystems, glacier-fed waters
• where current costs of extreme climate events are
  high
• flooding, drought, storm surges
• where potentially direct impacts on human health
  and well-being
• traditional food supplies, heat stress

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Differing Perceptions of Risk due to Climate
Change
Areas where assessed risk, and perception of
risk, are poorly aligned

• where small, incremental changes approach
  critical thresholds
• transportation, water resources
• where programs / policies insulate individuals
  from real affects
• are such programs sustainable
• where limitations in ability to adapt are not
  well understood
• coping range not defined

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Keys to Managing Risk

• Engage decision makers
• Understanding climatic sensitivities and critical
  thresholds
• Characterizing adaptive capacity
• Assessing vulnerability
• Integrating risks due to climate change into
  on-going decision making processes

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Engaging Decision-makers

• Why?
• to raise awareness of risks of climate change
• to identify priorities for adaptation action

• Who?
• governments multiple levels (local to national)
  and multiple departments
• industry and professional associations
• planners

• How?
• speak in terms of their decision-making processes
• focus on vulnerability to current climate
• analyze resilience to address plausible futures,
  including consideration of rates of change
• address as part of on-going risk management one
  of several stresses to consider

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Canadas National Adaptation Framework

• Federal, Provincial and Territorial government
  initiative to
• help jurisdictions develop individual adaptation
  strategies
• identify areas where jurisdictions can work
  together
• Framework defines three broad needs
• To build knowledge and understanding
• To increase awareness and engagement
• To build capacity to undertake action

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Government of Canadas Climate Change Impacts
and Adaptation Program

• Program Elements
• 1 funding research and undertaking science
  assessment
• increasing focus on adaptation research
• targeting priority areas for decision-making
• 2 Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation
  Research Network
• bringing together research and stakeholder
  communities
• facilitates regional and sectoral vulnerability
  analysis
• 3 coordination of policy analysis and
  development
• analysis of climate change implications for
  existing policies and programs
• recognition that adaptation actions taken within
  one region or sector will have significant
  implications for others

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Some areas for continued information exchange
between all Parties

• Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity
• local and regional scale vulnerability assessment
• assessing influences on adaptive capacity,
  including perceptions of risk
• assessing resilience to plausible futures
• Adaptation Policies and Measures
• approaches to enhance awareness and engage
  decision-makers
• frameworks and planning tools to integrate risks
  due to climate change into on-going decision
  making processes
• understanding barriers (including risk
  perception) and incentives to implementation
• targeted policies and measures