CLIMATE CHANGE, EARLY WARNING, ADVISORY SERVICES AND RELATED INITIATIVES

1
CLIMATE CHANGE, EARLY WARNING, ADVISORY SERVICES
AND RELATED INITIATIVES PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE
PRESENTATION BY MR. MNIKELI NDABAMBI, GENERAL
MANAGER OPERATIONS FOR DR. LINDA MAKULENI,
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, SAWS 05 JUNE 2012
2
CONTENTS

• Purpose of the presentation
• Related Strategic Drivers and program
• Forecasting
• Early Warning
• Advisory Services
• Climate Change related initiatives
• Conclusion

22
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
3
PURPOSE OF PRESENTATION
To brief the Portfolio Committee Members on SAWS
programmes on Climate Change.
33
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
4
NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE-WHITE PAPER

• In addressing NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE,
  WHITE PAPER-CHAPTER 4, identified the following
  as among Strategic Priorities-
• Risk reduction and management
• Informed decision-making and planning
• Then CHAPTER 5 addresses adaptation where

Early Warning and Forecasting for Disaster
Risk Reduction are to be addressed.
44
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
5
SAWS STRATEGIC DRIVERS AND PROGRAMS RELATED TO
EARLY WARNINGS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• Safety of life and property
• Operational early warning system that encourages
  an integrated approach
• Provision of scientific information for
  adaptation and mitigation to climate change
• Adapting to the impacts of climate change and
  variability on food sustainability, rural
  development and quality of life of South
  Africans.
• SAWS will build on its experience on Air Quality
  the Global Atmosphere Watch, to play a crucial
  role.
• SAWS has also established seven Strategic
  Programmes the first being
• Climate Change and Variability Programme
• Addressing and/or supporting national climate
  change adaptation and mitigation initiatives

55
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
6
FORECASTING

• SAWS offers Weather forecasts to different
  stakeholders on daily basis to inform the
  decision making-
• Forecasting issued can be categorised into
• Nowcasting
• Short and Medium Range
• Long Range Forecasting

66
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
7
1. Nowcasting (0-14 hours)
Nowcasting (0-14 hours)

• SAWS offers weather forecasts and advices on
  weather phenomena that occurs on time scales from
  0-24 hours e.g. severe thunderstorms, hail,
  lightning , tornadoes etc. for safety of life and
  reduced damage to property..
• Utilize remote sensing infrastructure
• a) Weather Radar
• b) Satellite
• c) Lightning Detection Network

77
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
8

Short and Medium Range (1 3 days) (4 10
days)
Also utilizing different models in an ensemble
system to obtain forecasts on the short and
medium term. Focus on temperature and rainfall
forecasts .
88
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
9

Long Range Forecast ( 11 days - 6 months)
SAWS also offers weather forecasts on time
scales varying as follows a) 11 30 days
(Extended range) b) 1 3 months (Seasonal) c)
Longer time scales (Annual, Decadal, Climate-
in development phase) Utilize Global
Circulation Models (GCM), Ocean Atmosphere-Land
Coupled models. Collaborate with partnering
institutions e.g. CSIR
Forecast for 2012
99
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
10
The white paper points to a need to
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS)

• Use early warning systems to give timely
  warnings
• of adverse weather..as part of adaptation to
  Climate Change and variability impact,
• It also encourages investment in education and
  awareness programmes

10
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
11
SWWS as an component of the MHEWS
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS)
11
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
12
Enhancement of the Early Warning Service

• Based on international best practices (WMO
  international Weather Services as benchmark)
• Introduced 3 color-coded alert categories
  Advisory / Watch / Warning relating to specific
  hazard thresholds and lead-times
• Standardized content of message
• Collaborate with NDMC to improve warning
  dissemination

Advisory Be aware
Watch Be prepared
Warning Take action
1212
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
13
Increasing Urgency through Alert Levels
No Alert Advisory Watch Warning
Be Aware! Be Prepared! Take Action!
No hazardous weather expected in next few days Early warning of potential hazardous weather Weather conditions are likely to deteriorate to hazardous levels Hazard is already occurring somewhere or is about to occur with a very high confidence
2 to 6 days period 1 to 3 day period Next 24 hours, 3 hrs for FF, TS
1313
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
14

Climate change and variability research

• Entails investigating the future patterns of
  change in Southern Africa's climate (temperature,
  rainfall, storms, extreme events, etc) over the
  next decades up to 2100
• In collaboration with relevant stakeholders (e.g.
  other research institutions) impacts on South
  Africa's climate-sensitive sectors are identified
  and possible intervention measures recommended to
  relevant authorities.

1414
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
15

Climate change and variability research
SAWS is active on the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 to
investigate how the intensity and frequency of
climate extremes such as droughts , floods
coastal storms are expected to respond to
climate change.
Future plans Develop a climate change
impact modeling capability to support
development of applications that will inform
adaptation efforts and strategies on bi-annual
to decadal times scales.
1515
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
16

Air Quality Modelling and Forecasting

• SAWS is given a national role of monitoring and
  forecasting air quality
• The air quality modelling and forecasting group
  is developing the capacity to produce forecasts
  of national ambient air quality for a period of
  48-72 hours
• Pollutants include particulate matter less than
  10µm, sulphur dioxide and tropospheric ozone
• Initially use the UK Met Office NAMEIII model,
  which is currently in use in the UK

1616
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
17
Initiatives

• SAWS Embarked on road shows initiatives to raise
  severe weather awareness among communities as
  part of adaptation strategy (As reflected in the
  Climate Change white Paper).
• Developed new warning systems i.e.
• South African Flash flood Guidance system(SAFFG),
  
• Southern Africa Regional Flash Flood Guidance
  system (SARFFG)
• Storm surge warning system,
• National Fire Danger Rating System, for veld and
  forest fire warnings (with DAFF),
• Tsunami warning dissemination system (with NDMC
  and CGS)
• Community Rainfall Station
• Expansion of SWFDP into SADC region

1717
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
18
Successes and Challenges

• SAWS managed to develop a sophisticated hazard
  monitoring system, comparing very well with
  international best practices
• Relationships between forecasters and disaster
  management structures are developing very
  strongly more so in some districts than others
• Effective dissemination of warnings to all levels
  of society are still a problem and need
  significant support and participation with other
  structures, including disaster management,
  Government DEPTs, media and other role players
• Public awareness around the EWS and response to
  warnings and hazards need significant effort from
  all involved

1818
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012
19

THANK YOU
1919
SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012