Commuting to Work in the Metropolitan Washington Region Some Preliminary Results from the 2000 Census

1
Commuting to Work in the Metropolitan Washington
RegionSome Preliminary Results from the 2000
Census
TPB Item 12

• Robert E. Griffiths
• Cooperative Forecasting and Data Subcommittee
  Meeting
• June 10, 2003

2
Worker-Related Employment Growthin the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• Overall, more than 2.5 million workers now work
  in the metropolitan region.
• The increase of 170,000 workers between 1990 and
  2000 is about one-third of the 600,000 worker
  increase experienced between 1980 and 1990.

3
Change in Number of Workers by Place of Work

• Employment sites in the core jurisdictions of DC,
  Arlington and Alexandria collectively lost 60,000
  workers between 1990 and 2000.
• The greatest growth in new workers was in the
  inner suburbs (Fairfax 98,000, Montgomery
  29,000).
• In the outer suburbs, Loudoun (39,000), Prince
  William (16,000), and Frederick County, MD
  (21,000) all grew.

4
Change in Number of Workers by Place of
Residence

• In the core jurisdictions, the number of workers
  living in DC (-43,500) decreased, while the
  number of workers living in Arlington (7,200)
  and Alexandria (5,400) increased.
• In the inner suburbs, the number of workers
  living in Fairfax (47,000) and Montgomery
  (26,000) increased, while the number of workers
  living in Prince Georges County (-17,500)
  decreased.
• The greatest growth in the regions workforce by
  place of residence was in the outer suburbs,
  Loudoun (42,000), Prince William (28,000),
  Stafford (15,000), and Frederick Co. MD
  (21,500).

5
Change in Number of Federal and Military Workers
by Place of Residence

• The decline in the number workers working at
  employment sites in the core area jurisdictions
  and the fewer number of workers living in DC and
  Prince Georges appears to be related to the
  down-sizing of the Federal government between
  1990 and 2000.
• The region had 40,000 fewer federal civilian
  workers and 18,000 fewer military personnel in
  2000 than in 1990. The District also had 12,000
  fewer local government employees than in 1990.

6
Change in SOV, Carpool and Transit Commuters1990
to 2000

• Workers commuting in Single Occupancy Vehicles
  (SOV) increased by 14 between 1990 and 2000,
  while the number of carpool and transit commuters
  decreased by 10 and 6 respectively.
• These commuting mode changes also appear to be
  related to shifts in commuting destinations in
  the region between 1990 and 2000.

7
How Census Data is used in Transportation
Planning

• Extremely useful, comprehensive data source
• Large sample of persons and households (1 in 6)
• Provides small area neighborhood level data
  (block groups)
• Used to check and update land activity forecasts
• Round 6.3 incorporates many Census 2000 updates
• Used to check travel demand forecasting models
• Jurisdiction to jurisdiction commuting flows
• Commuting mode shares

8
Limitations of Census Data in Transportation
Planning

• Only provides information on worker commuting
  flows.
• Provides information on worker flows, not
  commuting trips
• Only 2 in 10 daily trips are commuting trips
• Provides information on usual commuting mode,
  thus misses
  occasional carpoolers and transit commuters
• Does not account for multiple job-holding
• Census data reflect only a specific time period.
• 10-year period of time April 1990 to April 2000
• Five-year period 1995 to 2000 much different than
  1990 to 1995
• Much has already changed since April 2000
• DC employment growth
• High-Tech slump in N. Virginia
• Only tells us where weve been, not where we are
  going.

9
The new Census data also enables us to assess
impacts of regional growth and transportation
changes on low-income and minority populations

• The Brookings Institution published a report in
  1999 on the challenges of growth in the
  Washington Region that states
• The Washington region is divided by race,
  income, jobs, and opportunity, with the Eastern
  half of the region carrying the areas burden of
  poverty and social distress while the Western
  half enjoys most of the regions fruits of
  prosperity.
• 1990 and 2000 Census and COG data was tabulated
  based on the East-West Divide discussed in the
  Region Divided report

10
The Race and Poverty Divide

• In both 1990 and 2000 the Eastern and Western
  sides of the region had very different racial,
  ethnic, and poverty-related characteristics
• 2000 Census Race, Ethnicity and Poverty

African-American Asian White Hispanic Below the Poverty Line
Eastern Side 80 20 20 36 60
Western Side 20 80 80 64 40
11
The Jobs and People Divide

• The Western side of the region gained population
  at 3 times the rate as in the Eastern side.
• Job growth in the Western part of the region
  outpaced job growth in the Eastern part by 20 to
  1.

Employment data is from Round 6.2 Cooperative
Forecasts.
12
The Impact of the Divideon Commuting

• SOV commuters increased 2 in the Eastern side of
  the regionbut increased 18 in the Western side
• Carpooling decreased 17 in the Eastern side and
  decreased 6 in the Western side
• Transit commuters dropped 16 in the Eastern side
  (largely due to the loss of workers) and
  increased 4 in the Western areas