Commuting to Work in the Metropolitan Washington Region Some Preliminary Results from the 2000 Census

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Commuting to Work in the Metropolitan Washington
RegionSome Preliminary Results from the 2000
Census
Technical CommitteeItem 9
DRAFT 03-27-03

• Robert E. Griffiths
• National Capital Region Transportation Planning
  Board Meeting
• April 16, 2002

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Worker-Related Employment Growthin the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• Overall, more than 2.5 million workers now work
  in the metropolitan region.
• The increase of 170,000 workers between 1990 and
  2000 is about one-third of the 600,000 worker
  increase experienced between 1980 and 1990.

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Change in Number of Workers by Place of Work

• The greatest growth in new workers was in the
  inner suburbs (Fairfax 98,000, Montgomery
  29,000).
• In the outer suburbs, Loudoun (39,000), Prince
  William (16,000), and Frederick County, MD
  (21,000) all grew.
• Employment sites in the core jurisdictions of DC,
  Arlington and Alexandria collectively lost 60,000
  workers between 1990 and 2000.

4
Change in Number of Workers by Place of
Residence

• The greatest growth in the regions workforce by
  place of residence was in the outer suburbs,
  Loudoun (42,000), Prince William (28,000),
  Stafford (15,000), and Frederick Co. MD
  (21,500).
• In the inner suburbs, the number of workers
  living in Fairfax (47,000) and Montgomery
  (26,000) increased, while the number of workers
  living in Prince Georges County (-17,500)
  decreased.
• In the core jurisdictions, the number of workers
  living in DC (-43,500) decreased, while the
  number of workers living in Arlington (7,200)
  and Alexandria (5,400) increased.

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Change in Number of Federal and Military Workers
by Place of Residence

• The decline in the number workers working at
  employment sites in the core area jurisdictions
  and the fewer number of workers living in DC and
  Prince Georges appears to be related to the
  down-sizing of the Federal government between
  1990 and 2000.
• The region had 40,000 fewer federal civilian
  workers and 18,000 fewer military personnel in
  2000 than in 1990. The District also had 12,000
  fewer local government employees than in 1990.

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Change in SOV, Carpool and Transit Commuters1990
to 2000

• Workers commuting in Single Occupancy Vehicles
  (SOV) increased by 14 between 1990 and 2000,
  while the number of carpool and transit commuters
  decreased by 10 and 6 respectively.
• These commuting mode changes also appear to be
  related to shifts in commuting destinations in
  the region between 1990 and 2000.

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How Census Data is used in Transportation
Planning

• Extremely useful, comprehensive data source
• Large sample of persons and households (1 in 6)
• Provides small area neighborhood level data
  (block groups)
• Used to check and update land activity forecasts
• Round 6.3 incorporates many Census 2000 updates
• Used to check travel demand forecasting models
• Jurisdiction to jurisdiction commuting flows
• Commuting mode shares

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Limitations of Census Data in Transportation
Planning

• Only provides information on worker commuting
  flows.
• Provides information on worker flows, not
  commuting trips
• Only 2 in 10 daily trips are commuting trips
• Provides information on usual commuting mode,
  thus misses
  occasional carpoolers and transit commuters
• Does not account for multiple job-holding
• Census data reflect only a specific time period.
• 10-year period of time April 1990 to April 2000
• Five-year period 1995 to 2000 much different than
  1990 to 1995
• Much has already changed since April 2000
• DC employment growth
• High-Tech slump in N. Virginia
• Only tells us where weve been, not where we are
  going.

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Preliminary Round 6.3 Cooperative
ForecastsProjected Employment Growth2000-2010

• Between 2000 and 2010 employment in the core
  jurisdictions is forecast to increase by 13
• Employment in the inner suburbs is forecast to
  increase by 20
• Employment in the outer suburbs is expected to
  increase by 35.