A Back of the Envelope Look at

1
A Back of the Envelope Look at Space Launch
Vehicle Costs   by Chris Y. Taylor Jupiter
Research Development 2004 AIAA Houston
ATS NASA/JSC April 16, 2004 cytaylor_at_jupiter-
measurement.com http//jupiter-measurement.com/res
earch/taylor_ats.ppt http//jupiter-measurement.co
m/research/rocketcost.xls
2

• Estimate of Costs for a New Economical Space
  Launch Vehicle
• Cargo to LEO
• Current Technology
• Expendable
• Liquid Fuel

3
C R G
C specific cost (/lb.) Launch
Cost/Payload Mass   R structure ratio
Structure Mass/Payload Mass   G structure cost
(/lb.) Launch Cost/Structure Mass
4
C R G
Physics Technology R structure ratio
Structure Mass/Payload Mass
Assume R2 Economics Management G structure
cost (/lb.) Launch Cost/Structure Mass
   
5
G Glaunch (G nr/a)   G structure cost
(/lb.) Launch Cost/Structure Mass   G launch
recurring costs   Gnr non-recurring costs   a
amortization factor ? flight rate
6
Glaunch Gvehicle Gops Grisk
Gpropellant   Gvehicle Cost of Vehicle
Hardware   Gops Cost of Operations   Grisk
Cost of Risk   Gpropellant Cost of Propellant
7
Gvehicle f Chardware   f fraction of vehicle
expended 1 (completely expendable)   Chardware
cost of hardware (/lb) 1100 lt Chardware
lt2300   1100 lt Gvehicle lt 2300
8
Gops L Clabor   L labor intensity
(manhours/lb) Total Labor Hours / Structure
Mass 1 lt L lt 20 (for current launchers)   Clabor
cost of labor (/manhour) 100   100 lt Gops
lt 2000
9
Grisk PfailCpayload/R (1-f)
Chardware Pfail probability of failure 0.02 lt
Pfail lt 0.05   Cpayload cost of payload
(/lb) payload cost/payload mass
10,000   R 2, f 1   100 lt Grisk lt 250 not
including indirect costs
10
Gpropellant q Cpropellant  
q Propellant Mass/Structure Mass
R?/(1-?) 18 (assuming R2, ?0.9)   0.1 lt
Cpropellant lt0.25   1.8 lt Gpropellant lt4.5
11
Launch Costs
C R G If you want C lt 1000/lb. and R2, then
G must be lt 500
12
Reducing Gvehicle   Gvehicle f
Chardware   Reusable (reduce f)   Big Dumb
Booster (reduce Chardware)  
13
Reducing Gops   Gops L Clabor   Aircraft-like
Ops (0.001 lt L lt 0.01)   New Technology
Needed SSTO Increased Development Cost
14
G Glaunch (G nr/a)   Gnr non-recurring
costs 20,000 lt Gnr lt 120,000 (assuming RD
only)   a amortization factor ? flight
rate 27 (10 yr. payback, 4 yr. rd , flight
rate of 27/6 yr, 0 interest inflation)   750
lt (G nr/a)lt 4500
15
Launch Costs
16
Reducing (G nr/a) Reduce G nr   design for min. G
nr off the shelf   evolutionary cost sharing
17
Reducing (G nr/a) Increase a on orbit assembly
  cluster vehicles     new markets
18
Selected Bibliography   Griffen M.D. and
Claybaugh, W.R., The Cost of Access to Space,
JBIS vol. 47 pp 119-122, 1994   Whitehead, J.C.,
Launch Vehicle Cost A Low Tech Analysis, AIAA
paper 2000-3140, 2000   Kalitventzeff, B.,
Various Optimization Methods for Preliminary
Cost and Mass Distribution Assessment for
Multistage Rocket Vehicles, JBIS vol. 20, pp
177-183, 1965   Wertz, J.R., Economic Model of
Reusable vs. Expendable Launch Vehicles,
presented IAF Congress, Reo de Janeiro, Brazil,
Oct. 2-6, 2000   Worden, S., Perspectives on
Space Future, presented 2003 NIAC meeting, Nov.
6, 2003, http//www.niac.usra.edu/files
/library/fellows_mtg/nov03_mtg/pdf/Worden_Simon.pd
f   Griffen, M.D., Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar
Exploration, presented U. of Wisconsin, Nov. 9,
2001, http//fti.neep.wisc.edu/neep533/FALL2001/le
cture29.pdf   Chang, I.S., Overview of World
Space Launches, Journal of Prop. and Power, Vol.
16, No. 5, pp 853-866, Sept.-Oct.
2000   Claybaugh, W. R., Economics of Space
Transportation AIAA Short Course, 2002 World
Space Congress, Houston TX   Foust, J., Is There
a Business Case for RLVs?, The Space Review,
Sept. 2, 2003, http//www.thespacereview.com/artic
le/44/1