Spring 2004 Forecast Presentation UK

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The importance of social reality for Europe - an
application to civil participation
Marcel Canoy, Frédéric Lerais, Massimiliano
Mascherini, Andrea Saltelli, Daniele Vidoni
European Commission Bureau of European Policy
Advisers and Joint Research Centre
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Happiness indicators (Eurobarometer)
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Objective indicators

• Health, longevity
• Education
• Employment
• Poverty

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Good social outcomes

• Longer life expectancy
• from 43.5 to 75.4 for men
• from 46.0 to 81.4 for women
• Access to educational opportunities
• Upper secondary
• from 57 of the 50-54 year olds
• to 77 of 20-24 year olds

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Old times/new times
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Old times/new times
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Old times/new times
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Paradigm shifts in the debate

• Old
• Disjoint social and economic pillars
• Social models based on male breadwinners
• Subsidiarity
• New
• Social performance input to economic performance
• Disappointing social performance, new social
  risks, trends aggravate
• Shared responsibilities

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Social performance input to economic performance

• New challenges for growth require social
  performance as input
• Labour participation
• Quality of education
• Creation of social capital
• Innovation

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Social performance

• Bad news in key areas
• child poverty
• education (tertiary, dropouts)
• fertility
• obesity, alcoholism and mental illness
• two tier labour markets
• prospects for low skilled men
• rise of consumer debt
• social exclusion
• integration of migrants
• low participation in traditional politics

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Childrens well-being (Unicef)Rate of poverty
Child poverty rate 2005 and changes in the
nineties
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Education (Eurostat, DG EAC)Share of Early
School Leavers by Gender
Females
13
Youth Unemployment rate (Eurostat)
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Shared responsibilities

• All stakeholders important, including non-profit
  organizations
• But not for the usual reasons
• Coherence across policy fields and layers needed

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Citizenship indicators (source JRC report)
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Distribution of engagement in EuropeJRC and
European Social Survey 2002
Full engagement
No engagement
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Participation for the future of Europe

• Different modes of social participation in Europe
• Different impact of income and gender
• The countries that do well are also country where
  participation is high
• Nordic countries for instance
• Participation is needed for the acceptance and
  development of modern social policies

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Participation for the future of Europe

• In many areas there is need for a bigger role of
  stakeholders
• When countries register high level of
  participation, they also have confidence in
  policies
• Measures regarding health as an example

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Importance of trust

• Engagement correlated with trust
• Participating people perceive world more
  positively
• The greater the participation the higher the
  trust in others
• Trust in politicians is related to engagement
• Fully engaged more satisfied with democracy
• Trust diverges wildly across Europe

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Trust and engagementJRC and European Social
Survey 2002
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Conclusion
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Websites

• To know more
• Site of BEPA
• http//ec.europa.eu/dgs/policy_advisers/index_en.h
  tm
• Site of CRELL
• http//crell.jrc.ec.europa.eu

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EU event

• Site of the conference Beyond GDP (November)
• http//www.beyond-gdp.eu/