Assessing the Impact of NERICA on Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Uganda

1
Assessing the Impact of NERICA on Poverty
ReductionEvidence from Uganda

• Keijiro Otsuka Yoko Kijima
• Foundation for Advanced Studies on International
  Development
• (FASID)

2
Introduction

• Green Revolution (GR) has taken place not only in
  tropical Asia but also in Northeast Asia (Japan,
  Taiwan, Korea, and China) prior to or
  concurrently with overall economic growth.

• GR is known to have significant effects on
  poverty reduction without deteriorating income
  distribution.

• Is a GR possible in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)?

3
Assessing the Impact of NERICA (New Rice for
Africa)
4
Major Traits of Upland NERICA

• Short maturing (90 days vs.140 days)
• Drought-tolerant
• Soil fertility dependent (fertilizer-responsive)
• High-yielding (2.6 tons/ha vs. 1.0 ton/ha)
• Extremely labor-intensive
• (1) (2) Suitable for SSA
• (3) (4) Good but soil-fertility depleting
• (5) Favorable for labor-abundant small farmers

5
Basic Statistics of NERICA Sample Farmers in
Uganda in 2004

• Adoption rate of NERICA in Uganda as a whole is
  less than 1.

• Sample size 250 NERICA growing farmers

• Average cultivation size 1.57 ha

• Average fallow area 2.29 ha

• Average NERICA planted area 0.47 ha

• Years of NERICA introduction 200104

6
Table 2 Per Capita Income, Income from NERICA,
NERICA Adoption, and Land Area per Person by
Income Quintile
Low Lower middle Upper middle High
Per capita income (US) 41 100 168 363
income from NERICA 27 36 20 21
NERICA area/ total land area () 17 23 13 19
Land per person (ha) 0.33 0.55 0.65 0.72
7
Table 4 NERICA Yield and Income per ha by Crop
Grown in the Preceding Season
of plots Yield (ton/ha) Income (US/ha)
Tobacco 18 3.30 840
Legume crop 24 2.81 472
Fallow 48 2.37 512
Cereal crop 11 2.26 471
8
Table 5 Factor Payment (US) per ha and Factor
Share ()
NERICA Legume Cereal
Value of production 732 (100) 271 (100) 250 (100)
Current inputs 52 (7) 27 (10) 22 (9)
Capital 1 (0) 0 (0) 5 (0)
Labor 673 (92) 255 (94) 240 (96)
Residual profit 5 (1) -11.1 (-4) -11.6 (-5)
9
Table 8 Estimated Plot-Level Per Hectare Income
Function (t-statistics in parentheses)
Cropping pattern dummies (default Cereal Cereal) (1) (2)
Cereal - NERICA 1.67 (1.33) -0.05 (-0.04)
Legume - NERICA 3.12 (2.50) 1.73 (1.34)
Tobacco - NERICA 6.39 (4.95) 5.14 (3.71)
Fallow - NERICA 3.17 (3.30) 2.89 (3.05)
NERICA interacted with NERICA growing experience dummy - - 3.22 (3.02)
10
Table 9 Actual and Hypothetical Average Income
and Head Count Ratio (HCR) of Poverty
Actual Without NERICA (Actual NERICA Income effect) Actual NERICA growing experience effect on income Actual NERICA experience effects on income NERICA area
Per capita income (US) 155 148 171 192
HCR () 50.8 52.1 43.6 33.9
11
Major Findings and Conclusion

• NERICA is miracle rice, comparable to rice MVs
  in Asia in terms of yield growth.

• Since NERICA is highly labor-using, it is
  pro-poor.

• NERICA demonstrates that new agricultural
  technology can contribute significantly to
  poverty reduction in SSA.

• Adoption rate of NERICA in Uganda as a whole is
  still low. The development and dissemination of
  sustainable soil management practice is the key
  to larger and sustainable impacts.