Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky' Update

1
Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky. -
Update

• by
• Jesse Mayes, P.E.
• Division of
• Multimodal Programs
• July 22, 2003

2
Air Quality Timelines

• New Emissions Model MOBILE6 - Now
• New 8-Hour Ozone Standard - 4/15/04
• Conformity due - 4/15/05
• SIP due - 4/15/07
• New PM2.5 Standard - 12/15/04
• Conformity?
• SIP due - 12/15/07

3
MOBILE6 Requirements
WEATHER
MOBILE 6.2
VMT BY VEHICLE TYPE AVERAGE SPEEDS BY FUNCTIONAL
CLASS OF ROAD
VMT BY TIME OF DAY VMT BY YEAR OF
VEHICLE FREEWAY/RAMP VMT DISTRIBUTION
4
Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky.-
Update

• VMT
• Ramp
• Speed (Space Mean Speed)
• Truck
• Vehicle Age/Type Distribution

5
VMT

• HPMS data
• Local mileage GPSed (TBC by 12/31/03)
• Local ADT based on collector ADT (see KTC report
  at http//www.ktc.uky.edu)
• Forecasts developed in-house based on trends

6
Ramp

• Freeway Mainline/Ramp
• Mainline Ramp
• MOBILE6 Default 92.0 8.0
• Kentucky Urban 92.4 7.6
• Kentucky Rural 98.5 1.5
• See KYTC Report

7
Speed

• Starting Point
• Data Collection
• State of Speed Estimation for Areas without TDMs
  (Rural Areas)
• State of Speed Estimation for Areas with TDMs
• Conclusions

8
Starting Point

• 1997 HPMS Average Speeds by Functional Class.
• not accurate, obsolete
• HPMS Functional Class Rural/Urban Description 19
  97 HPMS Average Speeds (mph)
• 01 Rural Interstate 50.4
• 02 Rural Principle Arterial 47.4
• 06 Rural Minor Arterial 34.9
• 07Not Rural Major Collector 31.5
• 08 Rural Minor Collector 31.5
• 09 Rural Local 31.5

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Data Collection - Speeds

• Spot Counts
• Automatic Traffic Recorders (ATRs)
• Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

10
Data Collection Spot Counts
11
Data Collection ATRs
12
Data Collection ITS
13
State of Speed Estimation for Areas without TDMs
(Rural Areas)

• Survey of literature
• Proposed national research
• Speed estimation workshop
• Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS)

14
Survey of Literature

• NCHRP Report 387
• TMIP Travel Model Speed Estimation
• Highway Capacity Manual

15
Proposed National Research

• Submitted 2 proposals to NCHRP 8-36

16
Speed Estimation Workshop

• Workshop conducted by Dr. Rich Margiotta of
  Cambridge Systematics
• Included Kentucky Model Users Group
• Recommended HERS methodology

17
Travel Demand Models (TDMs)(Urban Areas)

• Status quo
• Brainstorming sessions/changes

18
Travel Demand Models (TDMs)(Urban
Areas)-Recommendations

• Use of improved BPR equations
• Use of more accurate free flow speeds
• Calibrate models for speed in addition to volume
• Develop standard modeling procedures for
  statewide usage

19
Speed - Conclusions

• With MPOs and Consultant Partners, Develop
  Consistent Methodology for TDMs
• For Other Areas, Develop HERS Solution Based on
  Kentucky Data Availability
• Provide to Air Quality Agency TDM Speeds where
  available and Rich M. HPMS/HERS results for other
  areas

20
Final MOBILE6 Speed Estimations
21
Review of Actions

• Rich Margiotta MUG workshop (8/14/02)
• TDM/speed workshop (12/6/02)
• DVMT/speed data submitted to DAQ for new 8-hour
  ozone standard (1/24/03)
• Randy Simon used HERS and local data to
  calculate speeds for AQ submission (5/03)
• Highway Speed Estimation for M6 by Kentucky -
  presented at AWMA (6/23/03)
• Poster at TRB Partnering Conf. (5/16/03)
• Speed study initiated with KTC (7/15/03)

22
Future Directions

• Develop standard modeling procedures for
  statewide usage
• Investigate other local traffic parameters such
  as VMT Speed by time-of-day and vehicle type
• Explore the use of registration data/crash data

23
Conclusion

• It is important to establish a consistent speed
  methodology for the state.
• It is equally important look at other
  transportation related MOBILE6 inputs.
• Thank you for your attention.
• Questions/Comments?
• EmailJesse.mayes_at_mail.state.ky.us