METHODS AND PROCESS of the Hungarian TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROGRAMME

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METHODS AND PROCESSof the HungarianTECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT PROGRAMME
Ferenc KOVÁTS Chairman of the Steering
Committee
Sofia, 19/20 June 2003 Workshops organised in
frame of the ForeTech Programme
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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROGRAMME (TFP)
WHAT IS TFP?

• A programme that aims to create sustainable
  competitive advantage and enhance the quality of
  life by bringing together business, the science
  base and Government to identify and respond to
  emerging opportunities in markets and
  technologies.

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HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PROGRAMME (TEP)

• Main objective to prepare recommendations for
  improving long term
• INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
• of the country
• and the
• QUALITY OF LIFE of the people

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HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PROGRAMME (cont.)

• Hungary launched her first foresight programme in
  1997.
• The main goals to find the ways and means to
  improve quality of life and the long-term
  international competitiveness of the country.
• Organisation the programme has been realised in
  seven panels supervised by a steering committee,
  managed by the TEP Office, sponsored by the
  Ministry of Education.
• Methods panel meetings, background studies,
  scenarios, Delphi-questionnaires, workshops, and
  seminars.
• The final reports have been published and are
  available on the Internet

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HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PANELS

• Human resources (education, employment)
• Health (life sciences, pharmaceuticals, medical
  instruments, health care)
• IT, telecommunications, media
• Natural and built environment
• Manufacturing and business processes (new
  materials, supplier networks, globalisation ...)
• Agribusiness and food
• Transport

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METHODS
Holistic Ireland Sweden Sectoral The
Netherlands Finland
Holistic USA Japan South Korea France
Germany
UK Spain Macro scenarios, too South Africa
Hungary
Sectoral Austria
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VARIABLES OF THE DELPHI QUESTIONNAIRE

• Degree of expertise of the respondent
• Impact economic, social, environmental
• Time (period, date) of occurrence
• (including never)
• HUs position vs. EU countries
• (ST, I, quality of production, service,
  regulation)
• Constrains social/ethical, commercial, economic,
  regulation, education/skill base
• Agenda domestic RD, purchase of licence, buy
  (import) the product

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STRUCTURE OF MACRO SCENARIOS

• Main dimensions
• integration
• knowledge-intensity
• active strategy vs. drifting
• Other factors
• human
• societal
• environmental
• economic
• infrastructure
• political

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THREE MACRO SCENARIOS
III
fundamental
I
II
no
active
drifting (no strategy)
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macro scenarios
global and regional scenarios
panels scenarios
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AGRO-FOOD SCENARIOS
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ICT SCENARIOS
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PRE-FORESIGHT STAGE

• Decision (goals, time schedule, budget)
• Awareness meetings
• Nomination of SG members
• SG appointed
• Selection of methods, issues for panels
• nomination of panel members
• panel leaders, secretaries appointed
• formation of panels

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MAIN FORESIGHT STAGE

• PANELSWORKING GROUPS (2 years)
• PANEL MEETINGS(appr. monthly)
• wider consultation, discussion, background
  reports, SWOT analysis, trends,
• PANEL SCENARIOS
• TWO-ROUND DELPHI SURVEY
• INPUT MACRO SCENARIOS
• PANEL REPORTS
• STEERING GROUP REPORT

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DISSEMINATION, IMPLEMENTATION

• Results 17 reports
• recommendations (gt300)
• Workshops, regional meetings, seminars
• 7 sectoral w.s. - Prime Ministers Office
• - Parliaments committees
• - NGOs
• 1 general w.s. - National Committee for TD
• (sectoral generic esp. innovation priorities)

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GENERIC PRIORITIES (tentative)
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AGRI-FOOD PRIORITIES

• Efficient use of land
• Regional development projects, support
• financial schemes, technical assistance
• Producer Organisations (cooperatives?!)
• Food SMEs new product-market mix
• Food safety
• Innovative products, methods
• Hungarica, agri,- vs. horticulture,
  grain-meat chain
• Protection against flood, inland waters

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ICT PRIORITIES

• Prepare for the Information Society
• Awareness raising (IT literacy, diffusion of IT
  in the whole society)
• Active role for the state (regulation, funding,
  userprovider of IT services
• Firms responsibilities
• Civic initiative
• Develop IT infrastructure

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• THANKS
• FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
• www.foresight.hu
• ferenc.kovats_at_om.hu