Exploring the Relationship between Split Sentences and Probation Recidivism in Maine July 27, 2006 M

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Exploring the Relationship between Split
Sentences and Probation Recidivism in MaineJuly
27, 2006Mark Rubin
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Study Parameters/Methodology

• Examined 2004 population of individuals entering
  probation via
• Split Sentence (spent some time in jail or prison
  just before entering probation
• Straight Probation (received a sentence of
  probation without any jail or prison time

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Exploring the relationship between sentence type
and recidivism

• Examined the following variables in the analysis
• Number of Priors
• Risk Level (LSI-R scores)
• Crime type (MEJIS index and Class)
• Region
• Demographic variables (gender, age, education,
  race,et al.)
• Criminogenic factors, including. Criminal
  histories
• Shock Sentence

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Split Sentenced probationers have higher
recidivism rates than probationers receiving a
straight sentence
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The data suggests first time/one time offenders
may have worse outcomes when receiving a split
sentence versus straight probation
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Lower risk offenders appear to have statistically
higher recidivism rates when receiving a split
sentence
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Offenders convicted of certain crimes appear to
have statistically higher recidivism rates when
receiving a split sentence
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All regions show statistically significant
differences
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Older offenders outcomes not affected by
sentencing type
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Education and marital status show statistically
significant differences in outcomes
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The differences between sentencing types are
minimized as criminogenic factors increase.
Criminal History
Education/Employment
Housing
Companions
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Recidivism rates are higher for shock sentences
than straight probation, especially after 30
days.
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Concluding Thoughts

• Split Sentence probationers appear to have higher
  recidivism rates than straight probationers even
  after accounting for specific characteristics.
• However, sentencing practices are at best weakly
  related to a recidivist outcome. Other factors
  play a role, such as AFA, Priors, Current Age,
  Education, Married.
• It appears that split sentencing has a more
  profound impact on lower risk offenders as to
  whether they recidivate.