Emerging Trends and Anticipated Changes in Canadian Higher Education

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Emerging Trends and Anticipated Changes in
Canadian Higher Education
CIRPA / PNAIR Conference, Victoria B.C. October
29, 2001
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Objectives of todays presentation

• Outline major trends in higher education
• enrolments
• faculty
• funding
• Describe factors driving trends
• Suggest implications for institutions and public
  policy

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Emerging Public Policy Issues

• Health care
• Sept 11 -- New emphasis on security
• the impact on economy
• Competing with needs of a knowledge-based economy
  and society
• innovation, learning and skills agendas

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Declining dependency ratios provides an
opportunity to invest in education
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Tax revenues from university graduates provide
resources for income redistribution
Source Statistics Canada, Survey of labour and
income dynamics, 1997
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Projected shifts in youth population (18 to 21)
vary widely over next decade
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Shifts in enrolment and population of 18 to 21
age cohort
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The fastest growing occupations require the most
education -- 1990 to 2000
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey,
2001
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Income premiums increase with education and age
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A new study confirms recent graduates can expect
this kind of income return

• The new Statistics Canada study
• matched personal student records with the family
  tax file over the last 24 years
• mapped out earnings profiles for many cohorts of
  graduates

• The study confirms
• faster income growth for recent cohorts of
  graduates early in their careers

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The growing educational attainment of parents
should push up youth participation
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Family income plays an important role in
university participation
Source Statistics Canada General Social Survey,
1994
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Projected participation rates for the 18 to 21
age cohort
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Pressure for renewal is growing fewer faculty
to support more students
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Can quality keep up with investments being made
in the U.S.
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Faculty are much older than in previous decades
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Future faculty needs
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Recent trends suggest stable PhD production in
the mid-term
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Proportion of PhDs employed in academe has
remained relatively constant
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It costs almost 30,000 more to hire at the 90th
percentile than at the median
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Trends in provincial funding

• Trend line towards re-investment
• All provinces increased operating support in
  2001-2002 (from 2 percent to 8 percent)
• More targeted funding
• Some new capital/infrastructure/DM support - but
  ADM problem remains huge
• Funding beginning to be re-linked to enrolment

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Recent changes to grants and fees
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Fee increases have not offset cuts in government
operating support
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Research
Canada Research Chairs 900 M over 5 years
Canadian Institutes of Health Research 400 M
per year
New federal investment in research excellence
Genome Canada 300 M
Network of Centres of Excellence 77.4M per year
Canada Foundation for Innovation 3.15B
1998-2005
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(No Transcript)
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Emerging Policy IssuesGovernment
Universities

• Capacity
• deferred maintenance
• expanding physical and human resources
• Flexibility
• shifting demands
• mission fit -- diversity
• Quality
• adding new programs
• meeting needs of youth cohorts
• attracting best students faculty
• Making full use of research capacity
• smaller
• indirect costs
• Core funding

• Accessibility
• equitable access
• tuition and aid policies
• Targeting
• program rationalization
• niche strengths
• matching shared cost
• Skills agenda
• Life-long learning (adult)
• part-time learners (1 million)
• TML
• Innovation Agenda -- 15th to 5th
• Research council support
• Support for graduate students
  

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Canada ranks 15th among OECD nations in GERD to
GDP ratios
Selected OECD nations, including all G-7 nations
and selected leading investors in RD