Changing Patterns of Family Formation

1
Changing Patterns of Family Formation

• John Ermisch
• University of Essex

2
Outline Key family processes and their social
differentiation

• Partnership formation
• Cohabiting unions
• Marriage
• Fertility
• Non-marital
• Marital
• Partnership dissolution
• Re-partnering

3
Data for presentation

• Marriage and birth registration data
• British Household Panel Study
• Demographic histories joining retrospective
  histories from 1992 and 2001 waves and events
  during panel,1991-2003.

4
Partnership Formation

• Marriage has been occurring increasingly later in
  peoples lives.
• Reflects
• Shift from direct marriage to cohabitation in
  first partnership.
• Partnership being postponed.

5
(No Transcript)
6
Percent who cohabited in their first live-in
partnership, by birth cohort
7
Delay in First Partnership

• Age by which half of women had lived in a
  partnership
• Born in the 1950s 22
• Born in the 1960s 24
• Born in the 1970s 25

8
Entry to Motherhood

• Postponement of motherhood.
• the age at which of one-half of women have become
  mothers increased.
• Reflects
• Shift from direct marriage to cohabitation in
  first partnership.
• Partnership being postponed.

9
(No Transcript)
10
Social differentials in timing of partnership and
childbearing

• For example, by educational attainment.
• Compare
• Women with highest qualifications at GCSE/
  O-level or lower.
• Women with highest qualifications above GCSE/
  O-level.

11
(No Transcript)
12
First live-in partnership

• Median Age at first union significantly later for
  more educated women in all three cohorts.
• Postponement of motherhood is similar for both
  groups, but it was faster for more educated women

13
(No Transcript)
14
Cohabitation in first union

• Cohabitation was more likely for more educated
  women for women born in 1950s and 1960s.
• Less educated women had caught up by 1970s
  cohort.
• More educated were pioneers in cohabitation.

15
(No Transcript)
16
First Marriage

• Median Age at first marriage significantly later
  for more educated women in 1950s and 1960s
  cohorts--
• but opposite is the case for 1970s cohort
• Postponement of marriage was ultimately larger
  for less educated women--
• but it took place earlier for more educated women.

17
(No Transcript)
18
Motherhood

• Median Age at motherhood significantly later for
  more educated women in all three cohorts.
• Postponement of motherhood is larger for more
  educated women.

19
Differential Postponement and Non-marital
childbearing

• Given the greater postponement of marriage than
  childbearing, non-marital childbearing had to
  increase.
• This differential postponement particularly
  applies to less educated women.
• Note the large difference in median ages of
  marriage (32) and motherhood (26) for less
  educated women.

20
(No Transcript)
21
Non-marital childbearing

• Explosion of non-marital childbearing since 1975,
  after about 130 years of stability.
• Registration statistics suggest that, in 2003,
• about 25 of births in England and Wales were in
  cohabiting unions, and
• 15 were outside a live-in partnership.
• The average age at motherhood is younger for
  first births outside marriage
• Outside a live-in partnership, it is 21.
• In a cohabiting union, it is 23.

22
Comparison of birth rates

• Estimate proportional hazard models of first
  birth rates
• within cohabiting unions (at risk from start of
  union to break-up/marriage/childbirth).
• Outside live-in union (at risk from age 14
  until union is formed or child is born).
• Compare birth rates of less educated relative to
  more educated women, as defined earlier.

23
(No Transcript)
24
Education differences in non-marital birth rates

• Less educated women always more likely to have a
  non-marital birth.
• Within cohabiting unions
• Education differences in first birth rates widen
  across birth cohorts.
• Outside unions
• Education differences in first birth rates widen
  even more across birth cohorts.

25
Partnership Dissolution

• Divorce became more common for successive birth
  cohorts from 1926 to 1961.
• Expected that two in five current marriages will
  end in divorce.
• Differences by education
• No significant difference for women born in 1950s
• Divorce rate 30 higher for less educated women
  for those born since 1960.

26
(No Transcript)
27
Duration of first cohabiting unions

• No significant difference in duration of union
  (before dissolving or marrying) by education
  group.
• Increase over time in median duration of first
  cohabiting union
• About 2 years for women born in 1950s and 1960s.
• About 3.5 years for women born in 1970s.

28
(No Transcript)
29
Outcome of first cohabiting unions

• High dissolution rate of cohabiting unions.
• Increase in dissolution rate over time.
• Increase has been larger for less educated women.
• In 1970s cohort,
• Less educated more likely to dissolve than more
  educated.
• Overall, one-half of the cohabiting unions
  dissolve, with the other half turning into
  marriage.

30
One parent families

• Divorce remains the primary way that lone parent
  families are formed.
• But, the sharp rise in childbearing within
  cohabiting unions has also made an important
  contribution to the increase in lone parenthood,
• Because of the high dissolution rate of
  cohabiting unions.
• Because the conversion to marriage rate is
  lower for mothers than childless women in
  cohabiting unions.

31
Social selection into lone parenthood

• Less educated women are more likely to
• Have a child outside of a live-in partnership.
• Have a child within a cohabiting union.
• Dissolve a cohabiting union.
• Dissolve a marriage.

32
Re-partnering

• In addition to union dissolution, re-partnering
  affects the
• proportion of mothers who are lone parents.
• proportion of people who live alone.
• How long does it take?
• After a cohabiting union dissolves, one-half
  re-partner within about 2 years.
• After a marriage dissolves, it takes over 7 years
  for one-half to have re-partnered.

33
Re-partnering

• In addition to union dissolution, re-partnering
  affects the
• proportion of mothers who are lone parents.
• proportion of people who live alone.
• How long does it take?
• After a cohabiting union dissolves, one-half
  re-partner within about 2 years.
• After a marriage dissolves, it takes over 7 years
  for one-half to have re-partnered.
• No differences by education group evident.

34
Social differentials in partnership and
childbearing

• Among women born in the 1970s, those with higher
  qualifications (above GCSE/O-level)
• enter a first partnership later
• are less likely to have their first birth outside
  a live-in partnership
• are less likely to have their first birth in a
  cohabiting union
• become a mother later
• are less likely to dissolve a cohabiting union or
  marriage
• are less likely to become a lone mother