The Ideal Data Facility for Development/Validation of Coupled Regional Models

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The Ideal Data Facility for Development/Validation
of Coupled Regional Models

• 20 May 2008

Mark C. Serreze
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The National Snow and Ice Data Center
Manages and distributes scientific data
Performs scientific research
Supports data users
Educates the public about the cryosphere
Creates tools for data access
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Model Input

• A site at which one can readily compile lateral
  forcings to drive regional model? (from
  reanalyses and GCM output)
• A facility where data sources for assimilation
  not in standard BUFR are archived and can be
  assembled in appropriate formats?

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Model output Build on CDC or NCAR approaches
for analysis?
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Model Output, Continued

• Evaluation through
• Comparisons with output from existing reanalyses
  (gridded fields, cross sections, vertical
  profiles)
• Comparisons with observations for land atmosphere
  and ocean (gridded fields, point values,
  vertical profiles)
• Compositing, differencing and timeseries analysis
  tools

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Emerging Arctic amplification?
Temperature anomalies, 20032007 minus 19792007
October
NCEP/NCAR, Climate Diagnostics Center
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Warming Permafrost
Alaska 4 to 6C increase in 20th Century, 2 to
3C in the last 30 years Siberia gt3C increase
from mid-1950s to 1990 Canadian Arctic 1 to 3C
increase in past several decades Tibetan
Plateau up to 1.0C increase since 1970s
IPCC 2007
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OSEs MIPs

• Should a data facility get into the business of
  Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and
  coordinating MIPs?
• Model helps to drive where observations are
  collected to optimize use of limited resources
• MIPs Very valuable, e.g., tests of
  atmospheric response to sea ice loss