The New Hungarian Development Plan Some comments on the education challenge

1
The New Hungarian Development PlanSome comments
on the education challenge

• Jean-Paul Reeff
• Ichini Consulting Limited
• Budapest, 29 May 2007

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In order to noticeably raise the GDP

• Would you invest
• In the education of people with high competency
  levels?
• In the education of people with average
  competency levels?
• In the education of people with low competency
  levels?
• Outside education?

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Skill and Macro-economic Outcomes GDP PER CAPITA
AND LITERACY
A. Relationship between GDP per capita1 and per
cent at prose literacy Levels 1 and 2,
population aged 16-65, 1994-1998
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Skill and macro-economic outcomes(communication
by Richard Desjardins)

• Average skill levels explain over 55 of growth
  differences in GDP per capita 1960-1995
• If past relationship holds a 1 rise in average
  literacy will precipitate a 1.5 permanent
  increase in GDP per capita and a 2.5 increase in
  labour productivity
• Differences in the at level 4 and 5 do not
  translate into growth differences
• Differences in the at level 1 appear to retard
  growth and result in large differences. Low skill
  seem to inhibit rates of technical innovation and
  rate of adoption of more productive work
  organization
• Skill increases lead growth

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Labour market outcomes and skill Probability of
exiting unemployment by skills levels The
probabilities of unemployed adults aged 16 to 65
to exit unemployment over a 52 week period, by
low (Levels 1 and 2) and medium to high (Levels 3
and 4/5) skills, document scale, 2003
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Source Adult Literacy and Life Skills Survey,
2003.
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The Hungarian Effort
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Three different levels

• Level 1
• New Hungarian Development Plan
• Level 2
• Social Renewal Operational Programme
• Level 3
• Renewal of Education

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Level 1

• Impressive in its holistic approach
• Long-term, visionary and addressing crucial
  issues
• but
• Substantially underestimating the economic role
  of education
• Not enough focus on low-literacy sub-populations

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Level 2

• Excellent framework to translate NHDP
  requirements into operational programmes
• but
• Weak on sustainability wrt possible educational
  programmes
• Few and unsystematic elements to determine a
  constructive regulatory policy

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Level 3

• State-of-the art outline of important educational
  challenges
• First ideas on a programme for the future rooted
  in scientific evidence
• but
• Relation to levels 1 and 2 only for isolated
  elements no framework for integration and
  setting priorities
• Regulation and sustainability weaknesses of level
  2 translate to level 3 (e.g. teachers issue)

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The German Case
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Level 1

• There is no ONE level 1 strategy (federal
  organization, federalism reform)
• Recommendation Do not look at Germany to find an
  example of best practice for level 1 strategies
• Alternatives Nordic countries, Netherlands, New
  Zealand,

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Level 2

• The national educational standards/national
  monitoring programme
• The National Education Panel Study (NEPS)
• The research offensive
• The vocational training effort
• The Lifelong Learning effort

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Level 3

• Some important level 3 initiatives
• All-day-schools and a related research project
  (StEG, http//www.projekt-steg.de/)
• Language proficiency assessment/language
  promotion in early childhood (e.g.
  http//www.berlin.de/sen/bildung/schulqualitaet/le
  rnausgangsuntersuchungen/

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Level 3 (cont.)

• 3) School inspections (Berlin)
• http//www.berlin.de/sen/bildung/schulqualitaet/s
  chulinspektion/
• 4) 8-years Gymnasium
• e.g. http//www.km-bw.de/servlet/PB/-s/1mcpx2hr6t
  uhk1lxsdb31225vvf1chf256/menu/1099153/index.html
• 5) The Hamburg case (http//fhh.hamburg.de/stadt/A
  ktuell/behoerden/bildung-sport/service/veroeffentl
  ichungen/schulgesetz/start.html

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Potential experts

• Level 1
• Prof. Dr. Ben Levin
• Prof. Dr. Juergen Baumert
• Prof. Dr. Ludger Woessmann
• Prof. Dr. Albert Tuijnman
• John Elliott
• Dr. Ritva Jakku-Sihvonen

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Potential experts (cont.)

• Level 2
• Prof. Dr Olaf Koeller
• Prof. Dr. Richard Desjardins
• Scott Murray
• Willem Houtkoop

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Potential experts (cont.)

• Level 3
• Prof. Dr. Eckhard Klieme
• Prof. Dr. Cordula Artelt
• Prof. Dr. Petra Stanat
• Prof. Dr. Sabine Weinert
• Karen Sewell

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• Thank you for your attention