SEARCH Understanding Change Panel: Priority Needs and Implementation Status Matt Berman John Walsh N

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SEARCH Understanding Change PanelPriority Needs
and Implementation StatusMatt BermanJohn
WalshNov. 5, 2007

• Charge to panel
• Plan the data analysis, modeling, and
  synthesis activities to understand the nature and
  causes of change, and to reduce uncertainty of
  projections of future change.

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History of SEARCH Understanding Change program
planning

• 1. Started with Arctic Oscillation Hypothesis
• AO shifted, and the Arctic didnt.
• 2. Is Arctic moving to a new state hypothesis?
• Answering whether Arctic has moved to a new
  state no longer urgent before science program
  really started.
• Arctic environment is changing faster than
  science can mobilize to understand and predict
  it, much less plan for the consequences.
• Policy environment shifting from is it
  happening? to what to do about it?

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Need for Understanding Activities

• On a national and global scale need science to
  support well-informed mitigation policy, i.e.,
• How soon will ____ happen?
• Can we afford to wait 20 years to begin deep cuts
  in greenhouse gas emissions?
• On a local and regional scale need science to
  support well-informed adaptation policy, i.e.,
• Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystem
  management
• Arctic infrastructure and settlement policy

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Synthesis Making SEARCH Relevant to U.S. and
Global Climate Policy

• Quantify feedbacks to global climate system
• Locate critical thresholds
• Measure rates and trajectory of change

Matt Berman SEARCH SSC meeting, 11/30/05
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Human and Natural Systems Linked Across Local and
Global Scales
Hajo Eicken SEARCH SSC meeting, 11/30/05
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What are some of the high-priority needs for
increased understanding

• Based on
• Urgency of need for increased understanding?
• Readiness for progress by coordination of ongoing
• activities?
• Fit to SEARCH program objectives and
  observations?

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Sea ice

• What is driving the ongoing retreat?

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What is driving the ongoing sea ice retreat?

• Projects underway
• ARCSS SASS Serreze (Heat budget analysis)
• Perovich (Solar
  radiation disposition)
• SEARCH AON Proshutinsky, Morison, Rigor,
  Eicken, Lee,
• Schlosser,
  Stanton, Toole, Steele
• Woodgate,
  others
• NOAA Rhines/Erickson, Richter-Menge
• IARC Polyakov
• Other IPY projects

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Greenland ice sheet

• How is the Greenland ice sheet changing and
  why?

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How is the Greenland ice sheet changing and why?

• Projects underway
• ARCSS SASS Fahnestock
• NASA Bales, Bromwich, Cassano, Wu,
  Bindschadler, Krabill
• NSF CReSIS (Gogenini)
• Various other IPY projects

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Arctic marine ecosystems

• How are they changing and why?

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How are Arctic marine ecosystems changing and
why?

• Projects underway
• ARCSS SASS Ashjian, Urban
• ARCSS SBI, SNACS Ashjian, Bates
• BEST (Bering focus) Hunt, various other
  projects
• NOAA Russian-American Long-term Census of
  the Arctic Grebmeier
• AYK Sustainable Salmon Initiative (western
  Alaska salmon)
• NPRB BSIERP Trites (Bering patch dynamics study)

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Feedbacks of change

• How are clouds affecting Arctic climate change?
• How will future Arctic ecosystem changes affect
  methane and CO2 releases?

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Feedbacks of change how are clouds affecting
Arctic change?

• Projects underway
• SEARCH UCP Persson
• NSF SASS Francis
• NOAA Ket/Uttal/Stone
• NASA

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Feedbacks of change how will future Arctic
ecosystem changes affect methane and CO2 releases?

• Projects underway
• ARCSS SNACS Rhew
• NOAA Swmiletov

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Human and social dimensions

• What are likely consequences for humans of rapid
  environmental change (vulnerability analyses)?
• How are and will arctic communities adapt to
  directional environmental change?
• How will human adaptations to environmental
  change affect ecosystems to cause further
  ecological changes?

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Human and social dimensions

• What are likely consequences for humans of rapid
  environmental change (vulnerability analyses)?
• Lammers, Ogilvie (SASS) Ashjian (SNACS)
• How are and will arctic communities adapt to
  directional environmental change?
• John (HBest) other Arctic Social Science
  programs, i.e., Huskey
• How will human adaptations to environmental
  change affect ecosystems to cause further
  ecological changes?
• Kofinas (SASS), McGovern (IPY)

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SEARCH Integration Projects

• NSF Chapin, Bromwich (Arctic System
  Reanalysis),
• Proshutinsinsky/Zhang/Pantaleev
  (ocean/ice data assimilation)
• NOAA Overland, Intrieri, Fetterer Wang (data
  assimilation)