Defence Planning: Strategic and Financial Aspects

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Defence Planning Strategic and Financial Aspects

• Todor Tagarev
• PAP-DIB Training Course
• Tbilisi, Georgia, 26-28 April 2005

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Affiliation

• Associate Professor and Chair, Defence and Force
  Management Department, Rakovski Defence and
  Staff College, Sofia
• Program Director, Centre for National Security
  and Defence Research, Bulgarian Academy of
  Sciences
• Managing Editor, Information Security An
  International Journal, http//infosec.procon.bg
• E-mail
• tagarev_at_gmail.com
• infosec_at_procon.bg

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Outline

• Capabilities-based planning
• Capability model (D-O-T-M-L-P-F-I)
• Assessing affordability
• Balancing needs and resource constraints risk
  perceptions
• Program-based force development
• Leadership and managerial challenges to the
  effective democratic control

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Main factors in a capability model

• Organization/structure authorized personnel
  strength Characteristics of the weapon systems
• Level of manning
• Condition of the weapon systems and the equipment
• Stocks (POL, spares, etc.)
• Training level
• ?2
• Leadership
• Morale

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One mechanized battalion
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One mechanized battalion
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Two mechanized battalions
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Relative estimates

• Doctrine, weapon systems characteristics, level
  of interoperability
• Support for a particular policy
• Balancing requirements and resources
  (affordability)

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On costing a force structure

• Planning for results
• Categories of expenditures
• Personnel
• Sustainment
• Combat training
• Investments
• RD

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Balancing needs and resource constraints

• Definition of planning risk
• Example
• Portfolio of capabilities

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Methodology

• Definition of required operational capabilities
• Program-based resource management -gt
  goaloriented resource planning, review and
  accounting
• Technology insertion in support of a security and
  defence (and economic and RD) policy
• Efficient process Complete cycle

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Programming

• Program-based force development
• Program-based defense resource management
• Programming
• Relates results to spending
• Relates long-term plans to budget

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Programming (2)

• Comprehensive
• No duplication
• Good costing
• Generation and assessment of alternatives
• Straightforward translation into budgets
• Basis for accountability
• On the programming structure

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Additional bibliography

• Todor Tagarev, "Bulgaria Integrated Defence
  Resource Management," in Security-Sector Reform
  and Transparency Building. Needs and Options for
  Ukraine and Moldova, Harmonie Papers 17
  (Groningen, The Netherlands Centre for European
  Security Studies, 2004), pp. 39-47.
• ---, A Means of Comparing Military Budgeting
  Processes in South East Europe, Information
  Security 11 (2003) 95-135, lthttp//cms.isn.ch/pub
  lic/docs/doc_556_259_en.pdfgt.

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For effective democratic control

• Efficient, coherent managerial processes
• Performance measurement
• No boundaries or demarcation lines
• Educated and dedicated people
• Political will
• Patrick Mileham, Civilized Warriors?
  Professional Disciplines, Ethos, and European
  Armed Forces, Connections The Quarterly
  Journal 3,1 (2004) 75-94, Available at
  www.pfpconsortium.org