Domestic Energy Supply

1
Domestic Energy Supply

• Increase in demand due to natural population
  increase will be balanced by conservation measures

2
Energy Requirements

• Space heating
• Water heating
• Cooking
• Lighting appliances
• Demand is largely determined by changes in
  population size, household size and resulting
  number of households

3
Population and household size
4
Space heating

• Increase in ownership of central heating
• Leads to higher internal temperatures
• Predicted to reach saturation level by 2020
• Determined by number of households

5
Water heating Cooking

• Water heating Determined by population size,
  follows increase in population
• Cooking Balance between number of households and
  change in lifestyle.

6
Lighting Appliances

• Largely dependent on number of households
• Average increase of 1.6 over past 30 years
• Efficiency versus increased ownership- projection
  difficult when will improved efficiency start to
  have an effect?

7
Energy use
8
Factors limiting demand

• Conservation measures
• Loft insulation-saturation level
• Cavity wall insulation
• Double glazing
• Draught proofing
• Hot water tank insulation-saturation level

9
No further increase in proportion of

• Loft insulation
• Hot water tank insulation

10
Cavity walls, double glazing, draught insulation

• Based on projection of number of houses in
  housing stock

11
Housing stock

• Average of 180,000 houses built per year over
  past 10 years
• Housing replacement rate of 0.7
• New homes will be 5 more energy efficient as
  internal temperatures will rise
• Energy savings due to more energy efficient homes

12
HOWEVER

• EU Directive on the energy efficiency of
  buildings could improve efficiency of space
  heating by 22
• DELight project could lower consumption for
  lighting by up to 43 by 2020
• If apply these savings

13
Final projected demand
14
Assumptions

• Demand
• Population projections assume greatest rate of
  growth will be 1.75 per year, slowest rate of
  growth will be 0.25
• Household size will continue its decline until
  it reaches a lowest possible value of 1.8 in 2030
• Proportion of energy used for various end uses
  remains the same

15
Assumptions

• Conservation measures
• Saturation level of loft and hot water tank
  insulation has already been reached
• Growth in uptake of other conservation measures
  follows same rate of increase as for past 20
  years
• Small growth in production of detached dwellings
  is offset by increase in proportion of flats
• Double glazing and draught proofing reach
  saturation level by 2010, following trend of loft
  and hot water tank insulation
• More energy efficient home saves 4.135 x 10-6PJ
  per year

16
Final figures
17
Fuel Mix
18
Predicted fuel mix

• By 2030, 75 natural gas, 20 electricity, with
  other solids, renewable waste and petroleum
  making up the final 5

19
Energy required by each fuel type
20
References

• www.dti.gov.uk
• www.statistics.co.uk
• www.bre.co.uk
• Energy use and energy efficiency in the UK up to
  the year 2010
• Energy consumption in the UK
• Energy forecasting methodology
• An economic assessment of some energy
  conservation measures in housing and other
  buildings