Alaska Aviation Weather Unit

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Alaska Aviation Weather Unit
Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) -Tony
Hall http//aawu.arh.noaa.gov
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Alaska is BIG!
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Photo by Tom MacPhail
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Photo by Tom MacPhail
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Alaska Region Organization
Aviation Weather Center
Region Headquarters
Other VAACs
Aviation Weather Unit
AK-Pac River Forecast Center
Tsunami Warning Center
WFO Anchorage
WFO Fairbanks
WFO Juneau
VAAC
Center Weather Unit
ADQ WSO
BET WSO
CDB WSO
BRW WSO
OTZ WSO
YAKWSO
CDV WSO
MCG WSO
SNP WSO
OME WSO
ANT WSO
VDZ WSO
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NOAAs NWS - Alaska Region16 office locations
204 total personnel
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Weather Forecast Offices
WFO Anchorage
WFO Fairbanks
WFO Juneau
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Alaska Aviation Weather Unit

• One of 3 meteorological watch offices (MWOs) in
  the U.S.
• Provides aviation forecast and warning services
  for the Anchorage FIR.
• North and south desk, staffed 24/7

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Area of Responsibility
Anchorage FIR
2.4 million sq. mi.
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Staffing

• 12 Meteorologists assigned- 1 Meteorologist in
  Charge- 1 Techniques Development Meteorologist-
  5 Lead Forecasters- 5 Journeyman Forecasters

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Partners/Customers

• FAA- Anchorage ARTCC- Kenai, Juneau, Fairbanks
  Flight Service Stations
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
• Alaska Airmens Assoc.
• Aircraft Owners and Pilots Assoc.
• Medallion Foundation
• Civil Air Patrol

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NIOSH 2006 AK Aviation Summary
1990 -99 2000-06 Change All
Accidents 166/yr 119/yr -28 Fatal Occupational
Accidents 11/yr 5/yr -55 Fatalities 40/yr 24/y
r -40 Occupational Fatalities 16/yr 9/yr -44 P
ilot Fatality Rate 408 198 -51 per 100,000
workers (assuming 2600 pilots)
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AAWU Products/Services

• FAs and AIRMETs for Alaska
• SIGMETs for the Anchorage FIR
• FA graphics (MVFR/IFR, turbulence, icing, surface
  prog) issued every 6 hours
• Significant Weather graphics (24, 36, 48, 60 hour
  forecasts) issued every 12 hours
• Pilot weather outlook briefings
• Aviation Web page

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Flight Advisory Zones 25 Climatologically
Distinct Regions
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Flight Advisory (FA)
FAAK01 PAFA 171345 FAIH FA 171345 AK NRN HLF...
AIRMETS VALID UNTIL 172000 TS IMPLY POSSIBLE
SEV OR GREATER TURB SEV ICE LLWS AND IFR CONDS.
NON MSL HEIGHTS NOTED BY AGL OR CIG. SYNOPSIS
VALID UNTIL 180800 HI PRES OVR NRN AK PRSTS THRU
THE PD. UPR YKN VLY FB...VALID UNTIL 180200
...CLOUDS/WX... S PALR-CYOC LN..SCT045 BKN120 FEW
CI ABV TOPS. TIL 18Z..OCNL BKN045/ISOL -SHSN.
ELSW..FEW045 SCT130. ISOL
BKN045 TOPS 130. OTLK VALID 180200-182000...VFR.
...TURB... NIL SIG. ...ICE AND FZLVL... NIL
SIG. FZLVL SFC. TANANA VLY FC...VALID UNTIL
180200 ...CLOUDS/WX... AIRMET MT
OBSCPAMH-PABI LN S..MTS OCNL OBSC IN CLDS/SN.
NC... OTRW PAMH-PABI LN S..FEW010 SCT025 OVC050
TOPS 120 LYRD ABV TO FL200.
OCNL SCT010 BKN025/VIS 3-5SM -SN.
ISOL CIG BLW 010/VIS BLW 3SM -SN BR.
ELSW..FEW025 SCT050 BKN110 TOPS 120. ISOL
SCT025 BKN050/-SHSN. OTLK VALID
180200-182000...PAMH-PABI LN S..MVFR CIG SHSN.
ELSW..VFR. PASSES... MENTASTA..MVFR CIG SN.
ISABEL..VFR OCNL MVFR CIG SN. ...TURB... NIL
SIG. ...ICE AND FZLVL... NIL SIG. FZLVL NEAR
SFC.
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Six-hour Surface Prog
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Six-Hour Weather Depiction
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Six-Hour Icing
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Six-Hour Turbulence
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24/36/48/60 Hr Sig Weather Charts
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Lots of Real-Time Data
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Real-time Surface Plots
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Pilot Reports (PIREPS)
                                                
                                                  
                                          ltgt
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Questions on AAWU Products/Services?

• Use the web pages to get smart before an official
  flight briefing (aawu.arh.noaa.gov)
• Look for inconsistencies in products to know when
  to dig deeper and ask questions
• Call AAWU forecaster for longer-range outlooks or
  when you have product questions
• Give us feedback

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Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Center
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Volcanic Ash Threat

• 100 Alaskan and Russian volcanoes pose a severe
  threat to
• Aviation
• North Pacific (NOPAC) Routes
• Polar routes
• Alaskan jet routes
• Surface based customers
• Emergency Managers
• Mariners
• General Public
• And more

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IMPACTS

• OVER 100 JET AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED ASH IN
  THE PAST 25 YEARS
• ASH MAY NOT BE DETECTABLE BY RADAR
• ASH IS CAPABLE OF SERIOUS DAMAGE

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IMPACTS

• JET AIRCRAFT TRAVELING OVER 500 MILES/HOUR
  (6-8 MILES/MIN)
• ASH CAN ASCEND AT 5000FT PER MINUTE.
• ONLY FIVE MINUTES FOR ASH TO REACH CRUISE
  ALTITUDES

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Potential Aircraft Damage from Volcanic Ash
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COOLING TURBINE WITH MELTEDVOLCANIC ASH
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NOTABLE ENCOUNTERS

• BRITISH AIRWAYS B-747 NEAR GALUNGGUNG, INDONESIA
  1982.
• LOST ENGINE POWER TO ALL FOUR ENGINES, RESTARTED
  THREE ENGINES AND LANDED AT JAKARTA
• KLM B747-400 NEAR REDOUBT IN
  ALASKA, 1989.
• ALSO LOST POWER TO ALL FOUR ENGINES, EVENTUALLY
  RESTARTED ALL FOUR AND LANDED SAFELY AT
  ANCHORAGE. (AN 80 MILLION LOSS)

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Exerpt from NTSB Report Dec. 14 1989 747 Nearly
Crashes

• Redoubt volcano, near Anchorage Alaska, began
  erupting on December 14, 1989. On the following
  day, a 747-400 airplane powered by GE CF6-80C2
  engines entered an ash cloud at 25,000 ft. and
  experienced flameouts on all four engines.
  During descent to 25,000 ft., the airplane
  entered a thin layer of altostratus clouds when
  it suddenly became very dark outside. The crew
  also saw lighted particles (St. Elmo's fire) pass
  over the cockpit windshields. At the same time,
  brownish dust with a sulfurous smell entered the
  cockpit. The Captain commanded the Pilot flying
  to start climbing to attempt to get out of the
  volcanic ash. One minute into the high-power
  climb, all four engines flamed out. Due to the
  volcanic ash and dust in the cockpit, the crew
  donned oxygen masks.
• The Pilot Flying noticed the airspeed descending,
  initially at a normal rate (given the airplane's
  altitude) but suddenly very fast. All airspeed
  indications were then lost due to volcanic dust
  contamination in the pitot system. At the same
  time, there was a stall warning and the stick
  shaker was activated with no signs of buffeting.
  The Pilot Flying put the nose of the aircraft
  down to avoid a stall and initiated a turn to the
  left in a further attempt to get out of the
  volcanic ash.
• The crew noticed a "Cargo Fire Forward" warning
  and deduced that the fire warning was caused by
  the volcanic ash, so no further action was taken.
  
• As the engine spooled down, the generators
  tripped off and all instrument were lost except
  for those powered by the batteries.
• During the time the engines were inoperative, the
  cabin pressure remained within limits and no
  passenger oxygen masks deployed. The crew elected
  not to deploy the masks because the
  passenger-oxygen-mask system would have been
  contaminated by volcanic dust in the cabin air.
• An emergency was declared when the airplane
  passed through approximately 17,000 ft. The crew
  stated that a total of seven or eight restart
  attempts were made before engines 1 and 2 finally
  restarted at approximately 17,200 ft. Initially,
  the crew maintained 13,000 ft. with engine 1 and
  2 restarted, and, after several more attempts,
  engines 3 and 4 also restarted.
• After passing abeam and east of Anchorage at
  11,000 ft, the airplane was given radar vectors
  for a wide right-hand pattern to runway 06 and
  further descend to 2,000 ft. The Captain had the
  runway continuously in sight during the approach
  however, vision through the windshields was
  impaired due to "sandblasting" from the volcanic
  ash in such a way that the Captain and the First
  Officer were only able to look forward with their
  heads positioned well to the side. Finally the
  airplane did land safely, but approximately 80
  million dollars was spent to restore the plane,
  which included replacing four engines.

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1989 REDOUBT Ash Encounter
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Mt. Spurr Eruption - 1992
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Augustine Volcano
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Anchorage VAAC

• Responsible for Anchorage FIR as well as the
  Russian Far East region
• Lead AAWU forecaster is responsible for VAAC
  duties but may draw upon other available staff
  during major eruption

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VAAC Products/Services

• Volcanic Ash Advisories (guidance for the MWOs
  who issue SIGMETs)
• Official Ash Dispersion Model runs for area of
  responsibility
• Consultation and advice to the Alaska Volcano
  Observatory, CWSU, FAA ARTCC Operational Staff,
  Military, adjacent VAACs

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Partners/Customers

• Alaska Volcano Observatory
• FAA Anchorage ARTCC
• USAF 11th AF, 11th OWS, AFWA
• USCG
• International Civil Aviation Organization
• Other VAACs

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Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA)(Watch VAA no longer
issued 4/1/07)
/C FVAK23 PAWU 131645 VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY -
WATCH ISSUED 13APR2006/1700Z VAAC ANCHORAGE
VOLCANO AUGUSTINE 1103-01 LOCATION N5922
W15326 AREA ALASKA SUMMIT ELEVATION 4205
FT/1282 M ADVISORY NUMBER 2006/379 INFORMATION
SOURCE AVO/COMPUTER MODEL DATA AVIATION COLOR
CODE ORANGE NEXT ADVISORY 2006APR13/2300Z.
REMARKS INTERMITTENT LOW LEVEL STEAM CLOUD
EMISSIONS CONTINUE. FORECAST ASH MOVEMENT FOR A
NEW ERUPTION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
FL240-FL350 SE 10 KTS FL120-FL240 SE 15 KTS
BLW FL120 SE 20 KTS
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Volcanic Ash Advisory

• FVAK25 PAWU 092255
• VAAAK5
• VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY - ALERT
• ISSUED 2006MAY09/1815Z VAAC ANCHORAGE
• VOLCANO BEZYMIANNY, 1000-25
• LOCATION N5558 E16036.
• AREA KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
• SUMMIT ELEVATION 9240 FT/1288 M
• ADVISORY NUMBER 2006/002
• INFORMATION SOURCE AVO/KVERT/PIREP/PUFF/UAF/SATEL
  LITE
• AVIATION COLOR CODE RED
• ERUPTION DETAILS BEZYMIANNY VOLCANO ERUPTED AT
  APPROXIMATELY
• 090830Z TO 50000 FT. ERUPTION ENDED APPROXIMATELY
  09/1700Z AS DETERMINED BY WEBCAM.
• OBS ASH DATE/TIME N/A.
• OBS ASH CLOUD N/A.
• FCST ASH CLOUD 6HR N/A

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Volcanic Ash Advisory

• VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY - ALERT
• ISSUED 2006JAN13/1835Z VAAC ANCHORAGE
• VOLCANO AUGUSTINE 1103-01
• LOCATION N5922 W15326
• AREA ALASKA
• SUMMIT ELEVATION 4205 FT/1282 M
• ADVISORY NUMBER 2006-15
• INFORMATION SOURCE AVO/MODEL DATA/PIREPS
• AVIATION COLOR CODE RED
• ERUPTION DETAILS MINOR ERUPTION AT 1245 UTC WITH
  LARGER ERUPTION AT
• 1325 UTC AND MAJOR ERUPTION AT 1748 UTC.
• OBS ASH DATE/TIME 131800Z.
• OBS ASH CLOUD SFC/FL520 WITHIN AREA 45 NM N HOM
  TO 75 NM SE HOM TO
• AUGUSTINE VOLCANO TO 60 NM NE ILI TO 45 NM N HOM
  MOVG NE APPROX 10-15
• KTS.

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One Time Eruption SIGMET
WSVAK4ANCL WS 070532PAZA SIGMET LIMA 1 VALID
070530/070930 PANC-ANCHORAGE FIR. RPTS FM
KAMCHATKA INDICATE THAT SHEVELUCH VOLCANO AT
N5639 LAT E16121 LONG ERUPTED AT 0441 UTC. VIDEO
DATA SHOWS TOPS OF ASH TO 6000 METERS (19,672 FT)
OR JUST UNDER FL200. THE ASH PLUME IS NOT VSBL ON
OUR SATELITE DATA. THIS IS A ONE TIME SIGMET BUT
WILL BE UPDATED IF MORE SIGNIFICANT DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE. NC. RB MAY 07
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Volcanic SIGMET Jan 2006
WVAK04 PAWU 301645 WSVAK4 ANCL WS 301645 PAZA
SIGMET LIMA 16 VALID 301700/302300 PANC-ANCHORAGE
FIR. VOLCANIC ASH FROM AUGUSTINE VOLCANO AT
N5922 LAT W15326 LONG IN AREA BOUNDED BY LINE FM
60 SSE ANC-100 ENE ODK-60 WNW ODK-50 WNW HOM-60
SSE ANC. CONTINUOUS ASH EMISSION. A BRIEF
EXPLOSIVE ERUPTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STEADY
ASH EMISSION OCCURRED AT 1225 UTC AND LASTED FOR
ABOUT 5 MINUTES. ANOTHER OCCURRED AT 1521 UTC
AND LASTED FOR ABOUT 3 MINUTES. BOTH EXPLOSIVE
ERUPTIONS BRIEFLY SENT ASH TO FL260 ACCORDING TO
RADAR. ASH TOPS OTHERWISE TO FL150. ASH BLW
FL150 MOV SE-E 10 KT. ASH ABV FL150 MOV E TO ENE
AT 20 KT. OTLK..FORECAST VOLCANIC ASH AREA AT
311100 UTC IN AN AREA FM 50 WSW BIG-30 SW JOH-60
SW HOM-80 WSW HOM-40 NNW ENA-70 NNW TKA-50 WSW
BIG. DSH JAN 06
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VAAC Tools
Satellite Imagery
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VAAC Tools
PUFF Dispersion Model
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VAAC Tools
Real-time Web Cams
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The Future of the AAWU/VAAC

• Web Stats/User interests
• Verification
• New Graphical Products
• New Web Page Design
• New Forecast Tools
• New Forecast Concept of Operations

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When and What

• Peak times in the morning
• Overnight shift products are VERY important to
  aviation

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Top Ten Viewed Products from AAWU Webpage

• 1. OBS page
• 2. Pireps
• 3. Sig Wx Charts
• 4. Sig Wx charts-all 4 loaded at once
• 5. Graphical Forecasts (6 hours charts)
• 6. Hourly weather depiction Charts (color coded
  Obs)
• 7. Cook Inlet FA/Obs (from click on the
  map-webpage)
• 8. Lightning data
• 9. Web Cams
• 10. Area Info Sheets

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The Top Ten Hitters
1. Herndon, VA 2. Elmendorf AFB 3. Harris
Corp 4. Private 5. Cominco Red Dog
Mine 6. Anchorage WFO 7. Fairbanks WFO 8.
Penn Air 9. WFO Juneau 10. Tie between AK
WSOs and the USCG
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AAWU/VAAC Web Hits

• Avg Hits per hour Avg Hits per Day
  Avg Hits per Month
• Aug 1517 36,417
  1.12 Million
• Sep 1844 44,278
  1.32 Million
• Oct 1911 45,865
  1.42 Million
• Nov 1884 45216
  1.36 Million
• Dec 1868 44,840
  1.39 Million
• Jan 07 1957 46,308
  1.43 Million
• Feb 07 1855 44,540
  1.25 Million
• Mar 07 1850 44,420
  1.38 Million
• Apr 07 1776 42,404
  1.27 Million
• 1829 43810
  1.33 Million

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User Tendencies

• Only 1 out of every 7 users use the text FA
  products
• 2/3 of the users are graphics users only
• Note - We can not determine how many users use
  both the graphics and text products during the
  same visit
• Text product usage increases significantly during
  periods of inclement weather (IFR)
• During the summer months we see an increase in
  text product usage - increase in general (VFR)
  aviation
• Commercial aviators use very little text products
  (FAs), General aviators use text products
  frequently
• Graphic product usage is very consistent, text
  product usage varies

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IFR Verification
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New Graphical Sigmet
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New Graphical Products-Sigmet
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Graphical VAA
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Web Improvements

• Mouse Over Forecast
• Color Coded Airmets
• New database
• Customer first design
• Late Summer 2007??

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New AAWU Web page look-format
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VAAC Web Page
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Top News section on Webpage

• Top News The AAWU web site is currently being
  updated. Keep your eye on this news spot.
• 1. Attention all pilots Please visit the NOAA
  NWS River Watch Program web site at
  "http//aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/rivwatch.php" for more
  details!!!
• 2. We have added a new link to an Alaska airport
  map site. It is located under 'Observations/other
  ob sites' then down to the bottom.
• 3. See the new SIGMET graphic under the SIGMET
  links. Please email us at the "AAWU Web" link at
  the bottom left corner with comments. Aviation
  Weather Clickable Map

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FAA Alaska Airport Map
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Current Weather Around Alaska (link from Alaska
Climate Research Center)
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New Forecast Tools?

• AMDAR-FSL Aircraft Sounding Displays
• (http//amdar.noaa.gov/oper)
• UPS Fog Study-AAWU Forecasting Tool?

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Aircraft Flight Tracks
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Experimental FSL Aircraft Sounding Display
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Tabular Sounding Data
Pressure_Alt DD Dir Spd ---Temp--- DewPt WVMR WF Time Bng/Rng Lat Lon Station
(ft) (mb) DD (kts) (F) (C) (C) g/Kg (obs) (deg/nm) ---(decimal)---
853 982.4 R 183 14 37.7 3.1 -99.9 - 1438 355/003 61.220 -150.030
1722 951.8 R 207 6 36.0 2.2 -99.9 - 1437 352/006 61.270 -150.050
2795 915.0 R 174 4 34.2 1.2 -99.9 - 1436 351/009 61.320 -150.070
4009 874.8 R 143 0 30.3 -0.9 -99.9 - 1435 359/011 61.350 -150.030
5400 830.5 R 36 8 25.6 -3.5 -99.9 - 1434 13/012 61.370 -149.920
6640 792.6 R 68 5 22.2 -5.4 -99.9 - 1433 28/014 61.380 -149.780
8110 749.5 R 69 6 16.2 -8.7 -99.9 - 1432 40/016 61.380 -149.650
9258 717.1 R 115 12 12.8 -10.6 -99.9 - 1431 52/020 61.370 -149.480
10636 679.8 R 115 15 8.0 -13.3 -99.9 - 1430 61/023 61.350 -149.320
11125 667.0 R 117 20 6.7 -14.0 -99.9 - 1429 69/026 61.320 -149.170
12024 643.8 R 99 20 2.8 -16.2 -99.9 - 1428 78/030 61.270 -149.000
14632 580.4 R 120 20 -8.0 -22.2 -99.9 - 1427 87/034 61.200 -148.830
16784 531.9 R 124 20 -17.4 -27.4 -99.9 - 1426 93/039 61.130 -148.670
18802 489.5 R 132 18 -25.3 -31.8 -99.9 - 1425 97/045 61.070 -148.480
20918 448.0 R 141 20 -35.2 -37.3 -99.9 - 1424 101/051 61.000 -148.300
23008 409.9 R 156 34 -42.4 -41.3 -99.9 - 1423 104/057 60.930 -148.120
35971 227.7 R 164 23 -59.3 -50.7 -99.9 - 1407 123/192 59.420 -144.730
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Graphical Forecasts

• Lots of changes coming this year, 4D GFE
• Training beginning this summer
• Look for a s-l-o-w progression into operations
  (Hardware-time limitations)
• Many blanks to be filled in and questions to be
  answered

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Current GFA type Products
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Graphical Turbulence Guidance
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Questions???

• Tony Hall
• NOAA National Weather Service
• AAWU-VAAC Meteorologist In Charge
• Sand Lake, Anchorage, AK
• 907-266-5116
• Tony.Hall_at_noaa.gov
• AAWU web site http//aawu.arh.noaa.gov
• AAWU forecaster phone North desk 266-5109
  South desk 266-5110