A vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate change

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A vulnerability assessment of water resources to
climate change

• John Muscat
• Department of Physics
• University of Malta

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A Brief Outline

• Natural Water resources in Malta
• Climate impacts on water resources
• Potential Evapotranspiration
• Soil Water Balance
• Sea level Rise
• Adaptation Measures

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Water Production in Malta
Potable Water

• Ground Water Extraction

• RO Production

Consumer
Domestic / Industrial
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Climate impacts on Water Resources

• Potential Evapotranspiration
• Soil Water Balance
• Sea level Rise

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Potential Evapotranspiration

• Estimated using the Penman Monteith Equation
• Values indicate a peak of 7 9 mm/day due to
  climate change effects.

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Soil Water Balance

• Difficult to obtain quantitative predictions due
  to unavailable data regarding soil physical
  characteristics crop irrigation requirements.
• A simple model was constructed to simulate
  different scenarios. Conclusions are only
  qualitative in nature.

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Soil Water Balance Model

• This model is based on a multi-layer structure.
• Two-way flows are allowed between the upper two
  layers, namely the top soil layer and the upper
  unsaturated zone.

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Soil Water Balance Model
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• continued .

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Model Results

• Increased Evapotranspiration results in a greater
  soil moisture deficit in the top soil layer
• This triggers increased extraction to meet the
  crop irrigation demand
• Hence, groundwater reserves decrease.
• Increase in the dependence on desalination to
  meet demand.

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Sea level rise

• Deterioration in groundwater quality due to
  sea-water intrusion. Difficult to estimate.
• A substantial number of galleries will not remain
  suitable for GW production

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Conclusion

• Natural water resources are expected to be under
  significant stress in the forthcoming 100 years.
• Better start protecting our aquifers NOW !

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• Thats all

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