WP6' Scenario analysis on selected case studies

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WP6. Scenario analysis on selected case studies

• DITTY Project
• 13-14 Nov 2003 - Ferrara (Italy)

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Objectives of WP6

• To develop predictive tools to anticipate
  ecological changes and to propose management
  solutions to avoid extension of environmental
  crises both in intensity and frequency.
• The chosen approach is to define relevant
  scenarios and simulate them via models developed
  in the other WP.

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Task 6.1 Nutrient load change
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Task 6.2 Anoxic crisis
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Task 6.3 Effects of bacteria of sanitary concern
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Task 6.4 Exotic species with invading and (or)
toxic characteristics
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Task 6.5 Changes in resource exploitation
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Task 6.6 Effect of global climate variability
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Other scenarios proposed

• Changes in water circulation

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Scenarios ranked by priority (based on surveys
answers)

• Task 6.1 Nutrient load change
• Task 6.2 Anoxic crisis
• Task 6.3 Effects of bacteria of sanitary
  concern
• Task 6.5 Changes in resource exploitation
• Task 6.4 Exotic species with invading and (or)
  toxic characteristics
• Task 6.6 Effect of global climate variability
• Changes in water circulation
• Jellyfish blooms in the lagoon
• Hydrological changes (Tagus-Segura diversion,
  spread of desalination plants, the expected new
  diversion Ebro-Segura)
• Urbanisation of remaining open areas along the
  lagoon shore, general land use changes in the
  watershed

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For 2004

• Planned start of WP6 July 2004
• Which models will be ready by then to apply
  different scenarios ?
• Is it possible to have a common model ?
• D19 a report of the effects of nutrient load
  changes in all sites (due in july 2005)
• D20 a report of site-specific effects of other
  simulated environmental changes (due in july 2005)