Changing Demography and Californias Future

1
Changing Demography and Californias Future
CCCAOE Fall 2008 Conference
San Diego
Our New Era of Shared Interest

• Dowell MyersSchool of Policy, Planning, and
  Development

2
A Future Shaped at the Intersection of Two Great
Demographic Forces

• Immigrant Settlement and Advancement
• Aging of the Baby Boomers
• What role for higher education?
• How do the voters feel about all this?

3
Defining a Social Contract

• the underlying shared social understandings
• that structure cooperation
• within a world of self-interested people
• possessing unequal resources.

Source Beth Rubin, 1996
4
Our Evolving Social Contract
Five Eras

• 1. Rugged individualism and immigrant
  incorporation (pre-1930)
• 2. The New Deal and World War II (1930 to 1950)
• 3. Middle class entitlement (1950 to 1975)
• 4. Limiting government (1975 to 2008)
• 5. The new immigration and an aging society
  (2008?)

5
Our Historic and Future Transition
Despair about Trends
Loss of Common Purpose
Rediscovery of Hope
Rediscovery of Interdependence
SharedInvestment for a
Better Future
Source Dowell Myers, Immigrants and Boomers
6
ImmigrantsDo We.Will They.
Need Them?Assimilate?
7
illegal

• Unauthorized
• Undesirable
• Not invited
• NOT WANTED

8
Spending and Taxes in California By Age, 2000
7000
6000
Spending
5000
4000
Dollars per Capita (2000 Dollars)
Taxes
3000
2000
1000
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Age
Source Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 9.1 Ron
Lee et al. (2003)
9
Are Immigrants a Burden or a Benefit?
Percent of White Voters who Believe Immigrants a
Burden
1998 2004 Change

• Liberals
• Conservatives
• Gap (L C)

-11 10 21
29 64 -35
40 54 -14
Source Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 7 Table
B.3 PPIC Statewide Survey
10
Perceived Immigrant BurdenUndermines Tax Support
for All

• Prop 55 Statewide School Bond Issue in 2004

If Conservative rather than Liberal If believe
taxes are wasted a lot If believe immigrants are
a burden
18 LESS support 8 even LESS support 9 even
LESS support
plus

plus
Holding all other factors equal controlling for
differences in race, age, gender, children
present in the family, nativity, education,
income, and homeownership Source Immigrants and
Boomers, Chapter 7, Table B.5
11
SurvivingThe Baby Boomer
Tsunami
Double decades of
30 increase
12
Ratio of Seniors per 1000 Working-Age Residents,
ages 25-64
The Growing Weight of Seniors
California US
500
400
300
Seniors per 1,000
67 increase in 20 years, 2010-30
200
100
2010
-
2000
1900
1950
Source Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 3.2
Year
13
Percent Change in Senior Ratio to 2030
Source Dowell Myers Demographic Research Unit,
California Department of Finance
14
Aging Trigger of Many Crises

• Social Security Crisis
• Medicare/Health Insurance Crisis
• Workforce Replacement Crisis
• Taxpayer Replacement Crisis
• The Home Seller Crisis
• Education Funding Crisis

Source Dowell Myers
15
Source Dowell Myers and Claire Li
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Labor Force Slow Down
Annual Percentage Growth
1970-1990
1990-2010
2010-2030

3.5
3.0
California US
2.5
Annual Percentage Growth
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
2025-30
1995-2000
Source Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 3.3
17
A Coming Decline in the Skilled Workforce

• Percent of Residents with a BA or Higher in
  California

30

20
10
New Workers Pre-Retirement 25 to 34 55 to 64
0
Source Immigrants and Boomers, p. 210
18
Share with a BA Among Each Racial and Ethnic Group
Among all adults ages 25 to 64

• Non-Hispanic Whites 37
• Non-Hispanic Blacks 18
• Latinos 8
• Asian Pacific Islanders 45

Source Immigrants and Boomers, Table 10.1
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Solutions
Three Presumedand Onethat Works
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Alternative Solutions

• Do nothing differentlet decline happen
• Encourage higher non-Latino achievement to offset
  the growing numbers of Latinos
• Poaching workers from other states and nations
• Homegrown investment in Californias school
  children and adult education

Source Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 10
21
Growing Achievement Gap in Percent with BA or
Higher Degree
Ages 25 to 64, California. 1995-2005
Non-Hispanic 8.9
40
Total 5.1
30
Percent
20
Hispanic 1.4
10

• Source Immigrants and Boomers. Figure 10.1
  Current Population Survey data.

0
1995
2000
2005
Year
22
California-Born Share of the College-Educated
Workforce

• Old pattern Age 55-64 26
• New pattern Age 25-34 40
• Future pattern Age 25-34 70 ??

Source Immigrants and Boomers, Table 10.2
23
Sense
Financial
24
Returns on Educational Investment to Public Sector

• Rand Corp. (2000) 2-to-1
• Goal of doubling BA share
• Among Latinos in US
• UC Berkeley (2005) 3-to-1
• Henry Brady et al for the
• Campaign for College
• Opportunity 3 billion lifetime
• per HS grad class
• payback by age 35

Source Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 10
25
Average Annual Rates of Buying and Selling
Per 100 People of Each Age in California
buyers
Buyers and Sellers per 100 Population
sellers
Source Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 11.1
Age
26
Myers Projection for California in 2020
Whos Going to Buy Your House?
Net buyers
Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander
Black Non-Hispanic White
Number of Buyers Less Sellers
Net sellers
Source Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 11.3
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The Rediscovery of Hopeabout Immigration and
the Future
28
The Ultimate Question is What Future Do We
Believe?

• HOPE
• Steady Immigration
• Mostly Settled Immigrants
• Concentration of Upwardly Mobile Characteristics
• Shared Destiny and Common Interest

• DESPAIR
• Accelerating Immigration
• Mostly New Immigrants
• Concentration of Newcomers Characteristics
• Protection of Isolated Self Interest

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The Key Changes.

• The end of immigration acceleration
• More long-settled immigrants
• Upward mobility after longer residence
• Rediscovery of immigrant contributions

Source Dowell Myers
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Annual Immigration Declining in Traditional Major
Gateways
Percentage increase in annual arrivals compared
to 1980
FL
TX
U.S.
Miami-Dade
NY
CA
Los Angeles County
2005
2010
2000
1990
1995
1980
1985
Source Dowell Myers
31
The Longer Settlement of Californias Immigrant
Population
Percent of Total California Population
40
30
30 Years in US 20-29 Years 10-19 Years Recent
Immigrants
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030

• Source Dowell Myers Decennial census to
  1970-2000 CDF 5.0 California Demographic Futures

32
Upward Mobility of Latinos in California
HS Diploma
English Proficiency
Above Poverty
Recent Immigrants 10-19 Years 20-29 Years 30
Years 2nd Generation 3rd Generation
Homeownership
U.S. Citizen
Actual Voters

• Source Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 6.1

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The Rediscovery of Common Purpose
34
Turning Demographics From Problem Into Solution
Rediscovery of the Hope Needed to Solve Our
Shared Problems

• Immigration inflow no longer accelerating
• Greater benefits of settled immigrants
• Surprising upward mobility by immigrants
• Favorable return on education investments

Source Dowell Myers
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Intergenerational Social Contract
Childrens Education

the cycle of roles
Seniors Pensions Health Care Home-Sellers
Replacement Workers New Taxpayers New Home Buyers


Mature Adults Maximum Financial Contributions

Source Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 9
36
Benefits to be Gained by Investing in the Next
Generation
Covering the rising senior ratio More
skilled workers from our residents Building
the capacity for higher tax payments
Cultivating our required home buyers All
these are benefits for seniors Plus it
also leaves a legacy thats the right
thing to do.
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Thank You

• For more information
• Google popdynamics
• Dowell Myers
• School of Policy, Planning,
• and Development
• University of Southern California

2007 Thomas Znanecki Award