The SCRIP Framework and the Uganda Case Study

1
The SCRIP Framework and the Uganda Case Study
Stanley Wood, Simon Bolwig and Sam Benin
IFPRI/USAID Workshop on Strategic Analysis for
Sustainable Rural Livelihoods and Land Uses in
Uganda Kampala, October 14-15th, 2004
2
Overview

• Review the conceptual framework and related
  activities of SCRIP
• Review the contents of the latest SCRIP synthesis
  report, currently being finalized, that will also
  serve as a Case Study for the development of
  strategic analysis capabilities in other
  countries
• Concluding remarks

3
SCRIP Conceptual Framework
4
The Framework Problem Scope

• What livelihood strategies and related land uses
  are practiced, and where?
• What and where are the key ecosystems, ecosystem
  services and natural resources we need to
  protect?
• Where and how might livelihood strategies pose
  threats to ecosystems, ecosystem services, and
  natural resource?

5
The Framework What can be done?

• What can be done to provide better livelihood
  options and incentives for land users?
• 5. What might be the local and aggregate growth,
  food security, and poverty outcomes of (the
  current and) changing livelihood strategies and
  land use patterns?

6
The Framework What can USAID do?

• 6. Where should USAID best target its own
  investments?
• 7. How will the effectiveness of those
  investments be monitored and evaluated?

7
Components of SCRIPs Strategic Approach
Research Tools GIS characterization Survey data
analysis Commodity analysis Environmental
analysis Economy-wide analysis Econometric
analysis
8
SCRIP Strategic Analysis of Rural Investments
9
SCRIP Case Study Synthesis Report
10
Identification and Evaluation of Strategic
Options for Sustainable, Smallholder-lead Rural
Growth

• Draft report will be available for review in
  early
• December 2004
• Report synthesizes past SCRIP knowledge
• generation and presents latest analytical
  results
• The report will serve as a case study of the
  development of an analytical platform for the
  strategic evaluation of development options
  (IFPRI-lead development of Strategic Analysis and
  Knowledge Support System SAKSS)
• CD and WWW access to report, background papers,
  detailed, analytical results, baseline data and
  GIS maps (early 2005)

11
Report Contents

• The changing macro and policy context in Uganda
• Baselines, trends and patterns
• social welfare measure income, poverty,
  nutrition
• agricultural production, consumption
• agricultural performance (productivity,
  profitability)
• market participation, domestic and international
  trade
• land cover and biodiversity
• Identify enterprise options with sufficient
  market
• potential for raising smallholder incomes
• Assess economic attractiveness of identified
  options
• Stratify spatial development domains
• Commodity-specific potential economic benefit
  analyses

12
Food Availability Profile 1999/2000
Lisa Smith, IFPRI, forthcoming based on analysis
of UNHS 1999/2000
13
Report Contents

• The changing macro and policy context in Uganda
• Baselines, trends and patterns
• social welfare measure income, poverty,
  nutrition
• agricultural production, consumption
• agricultural performance (productivity,
  profitability)
• market participation, domestic and international
  trade
• land cover and biodiversity
• Identify enterprise options with sufficient
  market
• potential for raising smallholder incomes
• Assess economic attractiveness of identified
  options
• Stratify spatial development domains
• Commodity-specific potential economic benefit
  analyses

14
Uganda Crop Profitability by Management/Input
Category
Compiled from NAADS (2004)
15
Report Contents

• The changing macro and policy context in Uganda
• Baselines, trends and patterns
• social welfare measure income, poverty,
  nutrition
• agricultural production, consumption
• agricultural performance (productivity,
  profitability)
• market participation, domestic and international
  trade
• land cover and biodiversity
• Identify enterprise options with sufficient
  market
• potential for raising smallholder incomes
• Assess economic attractiveness of identified
  options
• Stratify spatial development domains
• Commodity-specific potential economic benefit
  analyses

16
Typology of Ugandas Agricultural Exports
17
Report Contents

• The changing macro and policy context in Uganda
• Baselines, trends and patterns
• social welfare measure income, poverty,
  nutrition
• agricultural production, consumption
• agricultural performance (productivity,
  profitability)
• market participation, domestic and international
  trade
• land cover and biodiversity
• Identify enterprise options with sufficient
  market
• potential for raising smallholder incomes
• Assess economic attractiveness of identified
  options
• Stratify spatial development domains
• Commodity-specific potential economic benefit
  analyses

18
Ugandas Development Domains
19
Report Contents

• The changing macro and policy context in Uganda
• Baselines, trends and patterns
• social welfare measure income, poverty,
  nutrition
• agricultural production, consumption
• agricultural performance (productivity,
  profitability)
• market participation, domestic and international
  trade
• land cover and biodiversity
• Identify enterprise options with sufficient
  market
• potential for raising smallholder incomes
• Assess economic attractiveness of identified
  options
• Stratify spatial development domains
• Commodity-specific potential economic benefit
  analyses
• (partial equilibrium, economic surplus
  simulation)

20
Uganda Gross Annual Av. Research Benefits By
commodity and region
Scenario 1 80 producers adopt best practices by
2015
Av. Gross Annual Benefits (M US/yr)
21
Report Contents -contd

• Examine the factors that might constrain
  smallholder adoption of identified options e.g.,
  institutional constraints, infrastructure, assets
• Appraise potential social and environmental
  implications of identified enterprise
  opportunities
• Integrate multiple options into coherent
  development strategies and evaluate in an
  economy-wide context
• Tabulate the final set of feasible and
  attractive smallholder-focused investment
  strategies that should boost rural incomes and
  help attain significant economic growth

22
Potential Environmental Hotspots
Population and ag. expansion pressures on
protected areas
Colored polygons are major protected areas
23
Report Contents -contd

• Examine the factors that might constrain
  smallholder adoption of identified options e.g.,
  institutional constraints, infrastructure, assets
• Appraise potential social and environmental
  implications of identified enterprise
  opportunities
• Integrate multiple options into coherent
  development strategies and evaluate in an
  economy-wide context
• Tabulate the final set of feasible and
  attractive smallholder-focused investment
  strategies that should boost rural incomes and
  help attain significant economic growth

24
Economy-Wide Assessment of Impacts
(Warning 2003 results. Data/model significantly e
nhanced in 2004!)
Real Total Household Income (consumption) Growth
Rate
25
Distributional and Regional Impacts of Growth
(Warning 2003 results. Data/model significantly e
nhanced in 2004!)
Eastern Highlands
Southwest Highlands
Lake Victoria Crescent
Real Household Income (Consumption) Growth Rate
26
Report Contents -contd

• Examine the factors that might constrain
  smallholder adoption of identified options e.g.,
  institutional constraints, infrastructure, assets
• Appraise potential social and environmental
  implications of identified enterprise
  opportunities
• Integrate multiple options into coherent
  development strategies and evaluate in an
  economy-wide context
• Tabulate the final set of feasible and
  attractive smallholder-focused investment
  strategies that should boost rural incomes and
  help attain significant economic growth

27
Issues

• Satisfactory progress has been made in
  development of the capacity sought by USAID in
  terms of data compilation, harmonization,
  analytical, etc.
• Need to make more and better progress on building
  partnerships to help contribute to, take
  advantage of, advance, and take a leadership role
  of this data/analysis platform as it continues to
  develop and be applied.

28
Issues

• All major implementation programs of USAIDs SO7
  are operational, and IFPRI has strengthened its
  in-country presence
• We believe it is timely to take the opportunity
  to review and consolidate SCRIP consultative and
  collaborative mechanisms with SO7s programs and
  implementation partners, as well as the with
  broader Ugandan and Uganda-based development
  community

29
Some Key Issues

• Furthermore, IFPRI itself is considering
  expanding its own research activities in Uganda
  in the context of its development of the
  Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System
  (SAKSS)
• The above issues form the basis of the Tuesday
  afternoon sessions

30
Development Strategy Simulations

• Set 1 Staple crops development
• Enhance productivity of matooke, cassava, sweet
  potatoes, sorghum and millet by 10
• Above plus 2.5 TFP in milling, and 1 in
  manufacturing
• Above plus 10 reduction in marketing margins
  for above crops
• Set 2 Livestock development
• 10 productivity in livestock production
• 10 TFP in meat and dairy processing, 2.5 in
  leather
• -10 in livestock sector marketing margins
• Set 3 Fishery development
• 10 productivity in fishery capture/production
  (domestic and export)
• 1 TFP in manufacturing
• -10 in fishery sector marketing margins
• Set 4 Export commodity development
• 10 productivity in coffee (arabica and robusta,
  horticulture exports, maize exports, beans
  exports, plus others)
• 10 in coffee processing, 2.5 in milling
• 10 in domestic and export sector for above
  commodities