Diapositive 1

1
(Prognostic) Models ?
Data-based methods
CO2
L. Bopp IPSL / LSCE - France
2
(Prognostic) Models

• Forced Ocean Models
• forced by best available heat/water
• fluxes (NCEP / ECMWF)
• - forced by atmospheric pCO2
• But
• - not usable for climate ch. projections
• - variability ? (restoring in sss, )

• Coupled Climate-Carbon Models
• forced only by CO2 emissions !
• produce own internal variability
• - used for projections
• But
• mutiple source of errors
• difficult to evaluate

CO2
CO2
L. Bopp IPSL / LSCE - France
3
Anthropogenic Air-Sea CO2-fluxes (90s)
Coupled Climate-Carbon Models
(More in B. Schneiders talk later this morning)
4
1. Effect of stratospheric O3 decrease on oceanic
carbon fluxes (Lentons talk)
Increase in wind stress in SO
Global Ocean Uptake PgC/yr
3.0
0.3 !
2.0
With O3 decrease
1.0
No O3 decrease
1980 1990 2000
5
2. Effect of other GHGs and anthropogenic
aerosols on carbon uptake (Cadule et al. subm)

• Most of C4MIP simulations only CO2 forcing !
• Here, we add other GHG aerosols by imposing
  their concentrations

Significant effect on the carbon cycle through an
effect on climate !