Rural America Entering the 21st Century

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Demographic Trends in Rural and Small Town America
John Cromartie Economic Research Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture
Pennsylvania Rural Interest Group Meeting October
6, 2006
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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The role of ERS

• Assess current socioeconomic conditions and
  trends in rural areas
• Analyze causes of rural change and its impact on
  families, businesses, and communities
• Serve as the Nations leading repository of rural
  data

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Challenges facing rural America

• Changing demographics
• persistent population loss
• rapid growth
• aging of the population
• race and ethnic composition
• Related challenges
• industrial restructuring
• changing technology and knowledge
• well being of the population

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What is rural?
It depends
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What is rural?
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What is rural?
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What is rural?
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What is rural?
Metropolitan Counties, 2003
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Nonmetro population change, 2000-2005
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Factors associated with nonmetro population growth
Natural amenities

• moderate climates
• mountains
• beaches, lakes, rivers

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Factors associated with nonmetro population growth
High-amenity counties are largely in the West and
Southwest
Very high
High
Low
Very low
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Factors associated with nonmetro population growth
Nonmetro population change by natural amenities,
1980-2005
Average annual percent change
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Factors associated with nonmetro population growth
Metro proximity

• good jobs
• quality housing and neighborhoods
• decent schools
• retail, entertainment, health services

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Factors associated with nonmetro population growth
Population change by urban influence, 1980-2005
Average annual percent change
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Ageing of the population
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Ageing of the population
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Ageing of the population
Older population counties
come mostly in two types
Population loss
Retirement destination
Source Economic Research Serv ice County
Typologies
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Ageing of the population
Population loss counties are more disadvantaged
Percent of population 65
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Race and ethnic composition
Nonmetro population change by race and ethnicity,
1990-2000
Percent population change
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Race and ethnic composition
Percent Hispanic, 1990
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Race and ethnic composition
Percent Hispanic, 2000
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Race and ethnic composition
High poverty is 20 or more.
Source ERS-USDA using data from the U.S. Census
Bureau.
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Industrial restructuring
Farm earnings in local economies are less
important now than 30 years ago
1999
1969
Farming accounted for 20 percent or more of
earnings in 935 nonmetro counties
Farming accounted for 20 percent or more of
earnings in only 262 nonmetro counties
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Industrial restructuring
Farming and manufacturing jobs fall, trade and
service jobs increase in rural areas
Percent of nonmetro employment
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Industrial restructuring
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Industrial restructuring
The rural-urban gap in college completion persists
Percent completing college
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Industrial restructuring
Much of the rural South is characterized by low
education
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Industrial restructuring
Change in nonmetro manufacturing jobs by average
educational attainment
Percent change in number of jobs
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Summary

• Rural communities are changing rapidly
• suburban expansion
• amenity development
• increasing economic integration
• Such trends encompass all types of demographic
  change
• internal migration
• fertility
• mortality
• aging
• racial and ethnic composition

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Summary

• Demographic change directly affects
• rural employment
• family structure
• human capital development
• land use
• social and economic well being
• Policy makers use demographic data to
• respond with appropriate social service policies
• adapt programs to changing circumstances
• balance shifting political and economic demands

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New publications from ERS
The Economic Research Service (ERS) reports the
most recent social and economic information on
rural and small town America Visit us at
www.ers.usda.gov for more information