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NOAA Forecast Uncertainty Program

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Title: NOAA Forecast Uncertainty Program


1
NOAA Forecast UncertaintyProgram
  • Douglas Hilderbrand
  • May 2008
  • http//www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nfuse/nfuseindex.htm

2
Outline
  • Background
  • Vision
  • National Needs/Benefits
  • Current Program Status
  • FY08 Achievements
  • Future Needs of Forecasters
  • Path Forward/Milestones
  • Challenges
  • Backup

3
BackgroundNo forecast is complete without a
description of its uncertainty ---NRC Report
  • In response to the National Research Councils
    Completing the Forecast Report, NOAA is taking
    a leadership role within the Weather Enterprise
    for providing products that effectively
    communicate forecast uncertainty information
  • NOAA Forecast Uncertainty Steering Team (NFUSE)
  • AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty Forecasting
    (ACUF)
  • National Unified Operational Prediction
    Capability (NUOPC)

4
Vision
  • NOAA-wide weather, water, climate, and other
    related environmental products and services are
    supplemented with uncertainty information that is
    clear, reliable, consistent, and meets the needs
    of NOAAs customers and partners.

5
National Needs/Benefits
  • For optimal decision-making and preparedness,
    users need additional uncertainty information for
    weather, water, and climate scenarios beyond the
    most likely outcome (i.e., deterministic)
  • Benefits include
  • Reduction of fatalities/injuries
  • Improved identification of evacuation zones road
    closures
  • Public Service Announcements
  • No-surprise forecasts
  • Reduction in weather-related costs due to
    improved mitigation strategies
  • Movement of property away from danger (flooding,
    wildfires, etc.)
  • Prevention of power grid failure (conservation of
    energy and power availability
  • Crop protection measures
  • Improved Resource Management
  • Reduction of unnecessary actions (i.e.,
    evacuations, snow removal)
  • Rerouting transportation
  • Agriculture practices (i.e., better harvest,
    field work planning)

6
Current Program StatusNot re-inventing the wheel
  • NOAA is already providing uncertainty
    informationbut we can do moredo it betterand
    get the Weather Enterprise and user communities
    more involved
  • Over 100 different products (operational,
    experimental, under development) provide
    uncertainty informationincluding
  • Ensemble models (i.e., SREF, GEFS, NAEFS, CFS,
    wave, wind, streamflow)
  • National Center forecast products (i.e., HPC,
    SPC, CPC, TPC)
  • NDFD (i.e., POP12), MOS products (POP, Prob. of
    Thunderstorm)
  • Public Weather Products (i.e., AFD,
    point-and-click forecast pages)
  • AHPS probabilistic products (i.e., Weekly Chance
    of Exceeding Levels)
  • Local WFO products (i.e., degree of confidence
    (MKW), probabilistic snowfall (PHI, BUF, SLC),
    rainfall exceedance probabilities (TUL))

7
FY08 Achievements (so far)
  • Formation of Forecast Uncertainty Program Manager
    Position and Oversight Group
  • 3 projects entered into OSIP
  • NDFD Uncertainty Products
  • Winter Weather Products
  • Forecast Point-and-Click Web Pages (forecast at a
    glance icons)
  • FY09 training statements of need entered into
    NSTEP
  • Draft of POP Alternative submitted to LFW program
  • Completed NURO report on forecaster uncertainty
    needs

8
Future Needs of Forecasters-NURO Report-
  • Rec. 1 NWS should expand the access of
    uncertainty guidance in operational forecast
    systems, including individual ensemble data for
    WFOs and NCs. This information should be
    provided in AWIPS II, GFE, etc.
  • Rec. 2 Model bias and ensemble under-dispersion
    should be improved by NOAA. Post-processing
    approaches such as bias correction should be
    explored to enhance ensemble output
  • Rec. 3 NWS should provide ensemble verification
    information to forecasters, especially for use in
    high-impact events. Examples could include
    comparisons of ensemble forecast skill to
    deterministic model forecast skill, comparisons
    of analog historical years or representations of
    normals.
  • Rec. 4 NWS forecasters should have access to
    various visualizations of ensemble data to
    enhance analysis and forecasting capabilities in
    AWIPS II, GFE, etc.

9
Path Forward/Milestones
  • Define and validate end-user operational
    requirements (3/4Q FY08)
  • Drive current projects through OSIP (Gate 2 in
    4QFY08)
  • Concept of Operations and Operational
    Requirements
  • Develop preliminary prototyping
  • Possible Future Projects
  • PQPF products
  • Area Forecast Discussions (currently uncertainty
    information is mentioned in an ad hoc
    mannerwithout guidance in the directives)
  • Decision Support Tools (i.e., Personal Weather
    Advisor)
  • AWIPS II Coordination (Current?)

10
Challenges
  • Convincing the skeptics
  • Funding shortcomingsmaking it through PPBES
  • Can current NCEP uncertainty products be better
    utilized at local forecast offices?
  • Consistency in formatscan agreements be made
    among different groups within NWS?
  • NCEP
  • OST/MDL
  • Regions
  • Clearly defining the role of the
    forecasterguidance vs. forecasts
  • Weather Enterprise roles and responsibilities
    (ACUF deliverables)

11
Backup
12
Icon Examples
13
Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
  • What will the future role of the AFD be in NWS
    operations?
  • Original users were WFO forecasters to access
    other forecaster views
  • Currently, users span a much wider range of
    meteorological backgrounds, including the general
    public
  • Uncertainty information is included in the AFD in
    an ad hoc fashion with no forecaster standards or
    guidance
  • Case Study February 12th 2008 Icing Event
  • One option add a stand-alone section on
    Forecaster Confidence/ Uncertainty into the AFD
  • Provide forecasters with guidance of what
    uncertainty information could be included
  • Provide training for the forecasters (uncertainty
    training needs have been submitted to NSTEP for
    FY09)

14
Feb. 12th Icing Event
  • VDOTs review found that the NWS had begun
    forecasting the possibility of freezing rain at
    3pm the day before (the event)
  • Washington Post 3/21/08
  • AFDs hint of uncertaintybut not a clear message
    or quantification of uncertainty
  • Possibility of freezing rain first mentioned in
    the Saturday evening Long Term Discussion
  • Early Monday morning discussion returns to
    possible wintry conditions (emphasis is mostly in
    western and northern portions of CWA)
  • SREF plumes indicate a quick change over to rain
    with very little freezing raingiven model
    forecast surface temps are near or below freezing
    did not go with the quick change

15
Winter Weather ProductsForecast Uncertainty
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