Title: THORPEX:
1THORPEX A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM
Scientific Guidance Provided by NOAA THORPEX
Science Steering Committee Presentation
prepared by Z. Toth
2THORPEX ORGANIZATION
EXECUTIVE OVERSIGHT SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION
INTERNATIONAL LEVEL LINK WITH WMO
International Core Steering Committee Michel
Beland (Co-chair) Louis Uccellini (US
Representat.)
International Science Steering Comm. Co-chaired
by Mel Shapiro Alan Thorpe
REGIONAL (NORTH AMERICAN) LEVEL LINK WITH USWRP
Oversight provided by North American members of
International Core Steering Comm.
North American Science Steering Com Co-chaired
by David Parsons Pierre Gauthier
NOAA LEVEL LINK WITH CORPORATE MANAGEMENT
NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Com. L. Uccellini
(Chair), M. Uhart, M. Colton, and Jack Hayes
NOAA Science Steering Committee Z. Toth (Chair,
Program Manager) 12 NOAA and outside members
3NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART
NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Committee Louis
Uccellini (Chair) NWS Michael Uhart OWAQ Marie
Colton ORA/NESDIS Jack Hayes NWS NOAA THORPEX
Science Steering Committee Zoltan Toth Chair,
Program Manager NOAA/NWS Observations Data
Assimilation Jaime Daniels NOAA/NESDIS Craig
Bishop NRL David Emmitt SWA L.-P.
Riishojgaard JCSDA Thomas Schlatter NOAA/FSL Chri
s Velden CIMSS Forecasting/Predictability Soci
oeconomic Applications Jim Hansen MIT
Rebecca Morss NCAR Jeff Whitaker/T. Hamill
NOAA/CDC Marty Ralph NOAA/ERL George
Kiladis NOAA/AL
4THORPEX A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN
Based largely on work of NOAA THORPEX Planning
Meeting (October 21-22 2002)
- NOAA NWS
- Zoltan Toth
- Naomi Surgi
- NOAA OAR
- Melvyn Shapiro
- Jeff Whitaker
- Outside NOAA
- Craig Bishop NRL
- David Carlson NCAR
- Ron Gelaro NASA
- Rebecca Morss NCAR
- John Murray NASA
- Chris Snyder NCAR
With further input from NOAA THORPEX Science and
Implementation Team
Acknowledgements D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S.
Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin
5NOAAS INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX
- 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of
NOAA scientists - Apr 2000 First International Meeting
- Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science
Steering Committee formed - Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
- Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting
- Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and
Implementation Plan - Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee
formed - Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment
- Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of
Opportunity - Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received
6THORPEX OBJECTIVES
INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM SCIENCE GOAL Promote
research leading to new techniques in
Observations (Collect data) Data
assimilation (Prepare initial cond.)
Forecasting (Run numerical
model) Socioeconomic Applications
(Post-process, add value, apply) SCIENTIFIC
RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS SERVICE GOAL
Accelerate improvements in utility of 1-14 day
forecasts for high impact weather THORPEX
ANSWER Develop new paradigm for weather
forecasting through Enhanced collaboration Int
ernationally Among different
disciplines Between research
operations Example North American Ensemble
Forecast System (NAEFS)
7THORPEX OBJECTIVES SYNERGISTIC COLLABORATION
SCIENCE GOAL SHARED WITH ALL PARTICIPANTS,
COMMON THEME Develop new paradigm for weather
forecasting Integrate OBS, DA, FCST,
APPLICATION areas of forecast process All
participants contribute to advancing same science
objective LEVERAGING RESOURCES SCIENTIFIC
RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS SERVICE GOAL
DIFFERENT PRIORITIES FOR EACH
AGENCY/NATION Accelerate improvements in utility
of forecasts for high impact weather Severe
weather (Asia?) 1-3 day weather (Europe?)
Global monitoring (NASA?) All participants
share service applications among
themselves COMPLIMENTARY EFFORTS Critical
mass of resources needed Intellectual,
Material, Global observs. NEED INTERNATIONAL
COLLABORATION
8THORPEX OBJECTIVES
- NOAAS ROLE
- Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at
- Short-range forecast problem PACJET, IHOP, Cold
Season Precip., etc - Seasonal climate forecast problem CLIVAR,
GAPP, etc - THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range
weather climate programs - NOAA SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL
- Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to
facilitate issuance of skillful - 3-7 day precipitation forecasts
- 8-14 day daily weather forecasts
- NOAAS ROLE
- Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at
- Short-range forecast problem PACJET, IHOP, Cold
Season Precip., etc - Seasonal climate forecast problem CLIVAR,
GAPP, etc - THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range
weather climate programs - NOAAS SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL
- Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to
facilitate issuance of skillful - 3-7 day precipitation forecasts
- 8-14 day daily weather forecasts
9THORPEX A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN TO
REACH NOAAS SERVICE GOAL 52-page document based
on input from 18 NOAA and outside experts
INTRODUCTION New forecast paradigm SCIENCE
PLAN Major Themes Open Science
Questions Research and Development
Tasks IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Work
Plan Deliverables Performance
measures Education/Outreach Path to
Operations APPENDIX Link with NOAA Strategic
Goals NWS STIP Process
10WEATHER FORECASTING FOR DAYS 3-14
- Based on guidance from Numerical Weather
Prediction (NWP) models - Quality tied with that of NWP model forecasts
- Components of NWP forecasting
- Observing system Collect data
- Data assimilation - Prepare initial conditions
- Forecast procedures
- Run numerical model
- Societal economic applictns
- Post-process, add value, apply
11TRADITIONAL FORECAST APPROACH
- Each discipline developed on its own
- Disjoint steps in forecast process
- Little or no feedback
- One-way flow of information
- Uncertainty in process ignored
12STATUS QUO SCENARIO
Substantial resources spent on improving NWP
- Forecast skill improves
- As in any learning process, improvements become
harder as skill advances - Maintaining or accelerating rate of improvements
not possible with current status quo
approach/resources
Is this acceptable when sensitivity/vulnerability
of society to weather increases?
13THORPEX SOLUTION
- REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS
- Invest in major new NWP program gt
- Develop new NWP procedures
- INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE
- Return Pace of forecast improvement
maintained/accelerated - Assess costs and societal/economic benefits of
new procedures - Implement operationally most cost effective new
methods - Return Enhanced operational capability
- Improved cost effectiveness
14NEW NWP PARADIGM - 1
- INTEGRATED NWP
- Sub-systems developed in coordintation
- End-to-end forecast process
- Strong feedback
- Two-way interaction among components
- Error/uncertainty accounted for at each
Based on better understanding of forecast process
15NEW NWP PARADIGM - 2
- Integrated
- ADAPTIVE
- Based on more detailed understanding of natural
processes - Allows more differentiated, case dependent
methods/procedures - Exmples
- Observations Adaptive platform collects data to
fill gaps due to clouds - Data assimilation Flow dependent forecast error
estimates - Forecasting Situation dependent modeling
algorithms - e. g., hurricane relocation
- Applications Probabilistic forecast reflects
all forecast info gt ultimate adaptation of user
procedures to weather
16NEW NWP PARADIGM - 3
- Integrated
- Adaptive
- USER CONTROLLABLE
- Based on
- 2-way interactions (improved forecast process)
- Adaptive approach (better understanding of
nature) - Forecast process
- Traditionally driven by FIXED user requirements
- Now responsive to CHANGING user needs
- User needs connected to observational, data
assimilation, and forecast systems - Dynamical analysis of nature forecast process
- New, NWP model based tools
- Fully interactive forecast process
- Example User identifies critical forecast
weather event - Special observational or forecast procedures
- Improved targeted forecast
17SCIENCE OBJECTIVE REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS -
INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE
TRADITIONAL NWP Each discipline developed
on its own Disjoint steps in forecast
process Little or no feedback One-way flow of
information Uncertainty in process ignored
- NEW NWP
- Sub-systems developed in coordination
- End-to-end forecast process
- Strong feedback among components
- Two-way interaction
- Error/uncertainty accounted for
-
SERVICE GOAL IMPROVE 3-14 DAY FORECASTS
18NEW NWP PARADIGM - 4
- Isolated examples exist
- INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
- NPOESS instrument/platform design
- Input from OSSE work (data assimilation/forecastin
g needs considered) - - North American Observing System initiative
- ADAPTIVE APPROACH
- GFDL hurricane model runs at NWS when needed
- USER CONTROL WSR program at NWS
- Threat of winter storm potential societal
impact - Dynamical calculations
- Targeted observations collected
- Targeted data inserted in analysis/forecast
process - From the EXCEPTION, THORPEX will make
interactive, adaptive, user controlled methods
the RULE
19NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW ACTIVITIES
- ANSWER SCIENCE QUESTIONS
- Advance basic knowledge,
- directed explicitly toward NWP applications
- Each task conceived as part of overall program
- DEVELOP NEW METHODS
- Sub-system development
- Academic research
- Cross-cutting activities
- Academic operational centers
- Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
- Real-time test and demonstration
- Infrastructure / Core tasks
- Facilitate other activities - Strong agency
involvement - THORPEX Data Base
- Operational Test Facility
-
- RECOMMEND/PREPARE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION
- Integral part of program
20SCIENCE QUESTIONS ACTIVITIES
- Observing system (OBS)
- Data assimilation (DA)
- Forecast procedures (FCST)
- Socio-economic Applications (SA)
- Cross-cutting activities
- Core tasks
21SCIENCE QUESTIONS ACTIVITIES - 1
- OBSERVING SYSTEM
- New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to
complement existing network - Adaptive observing instruments/platforms
- For large data sets
- Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil.
- (Joint work with data assimilation)
- Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)
22SCIENCE QUESTIONS ACTIVITIES - 2
- Observing system
- DATA ASSIMILATION
- Improve techniques
- Forward models, transfer codes
- Thinning of data
- Treatment of data with correlated errors
- Advanced methods to use flow dependent covariance
- 4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error
covariance - Ensemble based techniques
- Treatment of model errors
- Adaptive observing techniques
- Quick use of targeted data (pre-emptive
forecasting) - Methods in the presence of
- Strong non-linearities
- Model error
- Effectiveness of targeted data in
analyses/forecasts - Effect on climatological applications of data
23SCIENCE QUESTIONS ACTIVITIES - 3
- Observing system
- Data assimilation
- FORECAST PROCEDURES
- Initial ensemble perturbations (Joint with data
assimilation) - Role of non-modal behavior
- Separate model related error from initial value
errors - Systematic vs. random errors
- Atmospheric features most affected
- Critical model features responsible for different
errors - Improve model formulation to reduce errors
(Coupling techniques) - Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty
in ensembles (physics, etc) - Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques
24SCIENCE QUESTIONS ACTIVITIES - 4
- Observing system
- Data assimilation
- Forecast procedures
- SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS
- Probabilistic forecasting
- Statistical post-processing
- New procedures for intermediate and end users
- Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process
- Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms
(Joint with Observtns.) - Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP
process - New NWP verification measure
- Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures
- Equitable use of NWP resources, how adaptive
procedures applied nationally and internationally
25CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES
- Integrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems
- Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
- Data needs of NWP
- What variables/resolution/accuracy required
- Instrument/platform neutral assessment
- What instruments/platforms can provide data needs
- Existing and new in-situ remote platforms
- Adaptive component to complement fixed network
- Most cost effective solution
- Relative value of improvements in four
sub-systems - Improvements in which sub-system offer best
return? - Reallocation of resources
- Test of proposed operational configurations
- Major field program if needed
- Cost/benefit analysis - Select most cost
effective version
26CORE TASKS
- Needed for efficient research planned
operations - Strong agency involvement
- THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts)
- Information Technology challenge
- High data volume
- Transmission
- Storage of data
- Foster collaboration in critical areas
- Workshops (Societal and economic impacts)
- Joint proposals Interdisciplinary collaboration
- Critical in past programs like FASTEX
- Test-bed Pathway from research to operations
- Formal procedure for researchers to follow
- Melting pot for new ideas
- Venue for cross-cutting activities
27NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW - DELIVERABLES
DELIVERABLES New forecast techniques Observing,
data assimilation, forecasting, application
tools Accelerated forecast improvements Integrate
d, adaptive, user controllable NWP Cost
effective operational system Based on
cost/benefit analysis Enhanced user interface
COSTS Research Grant Program Integrated program
- Four sub-areas cross-cutting
activities Operational Test Facility Simulated
forecast process Database Real-time
test/implementation Data transmission,
Computations, Training
OVERALL MEASURE OF SUCCESS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS MUST OUTWEIGH
OPERATIONAL COSTS
28LINK WITH NOAA MISSION GOAL
- NOAAS 3rd MISSION GOAL sounds like excerpt
from THORPEX doc. - NOAA will provide integrated observations,
predictions, and advice for decision makers to
manage environmental resources. - Mission strategies and measures of success
- directly correspond with
- THORPEX Sub-program areas
- NOAA MISSION STRATEGY THORPEX FORECAST
COMPONENTS - Monitor and Observe Observations
- Understand and Describe Data Assimilation
- Assess and Predict Forecasting
- Engage, Advise, and Inform Socio-economic
Applications - Different Line Offices responsible for various
forecast components - NEED FOR NEW MATRIX MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR
INTEGRATION
29LINK WITH NWS STIP PROCESS
- National Weather Service (NWS)
- NOAAs operational weather forecast
provider - NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP)
- Operational requirements should motivate all
service oriented research - Research must have thread to operations
- Credible path to operational implementation
- SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS
- THORPEX seeks advanced knowledge on two fronts
- Nature (atmospheric and related processes)
- Forecast procedures (OBS, DA, FCST SA
techniques) - Integrating knowledge from two areas leads to new
forecast paradigm of - INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, AND USER CONTROLLABLE FCST
PROCESS -
30THORPEX A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
PROGRAM OVERVIEW OF NOAAS THORPEX-RELATED
ACTIVITIES
- ACCOMPLISHMENTS
- Contributed to International Science Plan
- Contributes to forming THORPEX International
Program Office (Under WMO auspices in
Geneva) - Contributes to North American Implementation Plan
- Formed NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee
- Developed NOAA THORPEX Long-Term Research Plan
- Issued First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of
Opportunity (AO) - ONGOING EFFORT
- Evaluation of research proposals in response to
AO - Atlantic Regional Campaign
- OUTSTANDING ISSUES
- Funding for AO unresolved
- Funding for Operational Test Facility (FTO) needed
31NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROJECT
- GOALS Accelerate improvements in
operational weather forecasting - through Canadian-US collaboration
- Seamless (across boundary and in time) suite of
products - through joint Canadian-US operational ensemble
forecast system - PARTICIPANTS Meteorological Service of Canada
(CMC, MRB) - US National Weather Service (NCEP)
- PLANNED ACTIVITIES Ensemble data exchange (June
2004) - Research and Development -Statistical
post-processing - (2003-2007) -Product development
- -Verification/Evaluation
- Operational implementation (in phases,
2004-2008) - POTENTIAL PROJECT EXPANSION / LINKS
- Shared interest with THORPEX goals of
- Improvements in operational forecasts
- International collaboration
- Expand bilateral NAEFS in future
32BACKGROUND MATERIAL
33COSTS/DELIVERABLES
- Costs
- Research program
- Integrated concept need to fund research in all
four areas of NWP - Operational implementation
- Deliverables
- New observing, data assimilation, forecasting,
application tools to implement integrated,
adaptive, user controllable NWP - Acceleration in current NWP improvements
Socio-economic benefits must outweigh operational
costs
34NOAA THORPEX OBJECTIVES
- 1) Develop new forecast procedures leading to
- Improved operational NWP forecasts and
- Develop/adapt cost/benefit tools to measure
resulting societal impact - ULTIMATE MEASURE OF SUCCESS
-
- The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program
will be measured in a unique and comprehensive
way. The program will be considered successful if
the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools
(point 3 above) indicate that the forecast
improvements (point 2) due to the new THORPEX
procedures (point 1) can be achieved
operationally in a cost-effective manner. That
is, the incremental economic and societal
benefits associated with the use of the new
THORPEX forecast procedures outweigh their
implementation and maintenance costs. -
35NEED FOR COLLABORATIVE PROGRAM
- Interdisciplinary research
- Different groups/agencies/nations need to
collaborate - Integrated approach to NWP 4 sub-systems
- Practical goal Research Operations
- Challenging program
- Need critical mass of resources
- Intellectual
- Material
- Synergistic activities
- Priorities of other agencies may be different
- Common overarching THORPEX themes
- Complementary efforts
- Leveraging of resources
- Global data and all NWP methods universally
needed - INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM HIGHLY DESIRABLE