Air Quality and Health Risk Risk and Risk Management

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Air Quality and Health Risk Risk and Risk
Management

• Dr. Tom BeerCo-ordinatorCSIRO Environmental
  Risk Network

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Air Quality and Health Risk Risk and Risk
Management

• Definitions of Risk
• Risk Assessment and Risk Management
• Different Frameworks

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Risk

• AS/NZS 4360Risk is the chance of something
  happening that will have an impact on objectives.
  It is measured in terms of consequences and
  likelihoods

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Risk

• EnHealth Risk Assessment Guidelines
• The probability that, in a certain timeframe, an
  adverse outcome will occur in a person, group of
  people, plants, animals and/or the ecology of a
  specified area that is exposed to a particular
  dose or concentration of a hazardous agent,
• i.e. it depends on both the level of toxicity of
  the agent and the level of exposure.

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Risk

• EnHealth Risk Assessment Guidelines
• it depends on both the level of toxicity of the
  agent and the level of exposure.
• Discussion points
• This omits any consideration of susceptibility
• Treats risk assessment as a scientific and not a
  social issue.

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Risk

• Risk, over a given time, is the union of a set
  of likelihoods and a set of consequences of the
  scenarios under consideration.
• (Beer Ziolkowski)

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Environmental Health Risk

• Risk to human health from the environment It
  could also include the risk to the health of the
  environment as a result of human activities

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Risk

• During a given time, risk is the union of a set
  of likelihoods and a set of consequences of the
  scenarios under consideration

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Likelihood
Likelihood
Consequences
Scenarios
Time
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Likelihood
Likelihood
Consequences
Scenarios
SOCIAL
Time
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Likelihood
Likelihood
Consequences
Uncertainty
Scenarios
SCIENTIFIC
SOCIAL
Time
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Likelihood
Likelihood
Consequences
Uncertainty
Magnitude
Scenarios
SCIENTIFIC
SOCIAL
Time
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Likelihood
Likelihood
Consequences
Uncertainty
Magnitude
Scenarios
Severity
SCIENTIFIC
SOCIAL
SOCIAL
Time
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SOCIAL
Vulnerability
Likelihood
Consequences
SCIENTIFIC
A persons or groups capacity to anticipate,
cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of
a hazardous agent
Magnitude
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SOCIAL
Severity
depends on
Likelihood
Consequences
Vulnerability
SCIENTIFIC
Ecological theory tells us how ecosystems and
populations aresustainable and why they are
vulnerable
Magnitude
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Praxis and Application

• Risk application is via frameworks
• Australia has developed AS/NZS 4360 (Risk
  Management)
• EnHealth Risk Assessment Guidelines
• NEPM RATForce Report

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Environmental Health Ecological Risk Analysis

• What is Environmental Health
• What is ERA
• What do the two have to do with each other?

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Risk ManagementAS43601999
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Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework
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NEPC RATForce
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Ricci/Beer approach

• Choose health end-point
• Choose averaging time
• Calculate population exposure
• Calculate exhibiting symptoms Dose-response
  concentration - symptomatic

Environment International 25, 887-898, 1999
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EHRA approach

• Risk Hazard x Exposure
• End-point
• Hazard Dose - response

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Canadian approach

• Risk Effects x Exposure x Entry
• Effects - Health end-points
• Exposure - concentrations and duration
• Entry - likelihood of release

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Natural Hazards approach

• Hazard
• x Elements at riskxVulnerability

Risk
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Summary

• Consequences
• Hazards x elements at risk
• Effects x exposure
• end-points dose-response
• Exposure

• Likelihood
• Vulnerability
• Entry
• Exposure
• Dose-response

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Summary

• Approaches are distinguished by
• Is it episodic (natural hazard), or
  quasi-continuous exposure (air pollution)?
• Is it the individual or the population that is
  being studied?
• Is it the hazard, or the receptor that is being
  studied?

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Typology of frameworks

• Frame- Episodic Individual
• works Chronic Population
• NatHaz Episodic Population
• Canada Episodic Individual
• EHRA Chronic Individual
• Ricci/Beer Chronic Population
• (They all focus on the hazard)

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The Budapest Manifesto Framework
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Budapest Manifesto Framework

• Concerns - Scenarios(Use risk assessment
  techniques to construct scenarios)
• Consequences - Hazards
• Calculations - Appropriate models
• Certainties and uncertaintiesvulnerability,
  exposure
• Compare with criteria
• Control and communicationhttp//www.iugg.org/bud
  apest.pdf