Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends

1
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends Reduction
Opportunities in New England

• Arthur Marin
• NESCAUM

2
Regional Overview
Total GHG emissions grew 10
3
GHG Emissions by Sector
4
Emission Trends by Sector

• Transportation grew 14
• Electricity generation grew 6
• Residential grew 7
• Industrial grew 28
• Commercial grew 3

5
Intensity Trends

• GDP grew 19
• GHGs per dollar fell 14

• Population grew 7
• GHGs per person grew 3

6
Regional GHG Goals
7
New England 33 toward 2020 GHG Goal
8
Closing the Gap

• Achieving the 2020 target is a real challenge,
  that will require states provinces to adopt
  broad portfolio of strategies
• There is reason for optimism that the region can
  meet its goals in economically advantageous ways
• Recent analysis looking at the marginal cost of
  reducing GHGs in select New England States
  suggests 20 or more can be achieved at net
  savings
• There is significant untapped EE potential in
  the region

9

10
(No Transcript)
11
What are the Major Reservoirs of Achievable EE
Potential in 2013?1 By Sector
Residential Savings 12,745 GWH
CI Savings 21,630 GWH
12
What are the Major Reservoirs of Achievable EE
Potential in 2013?2 By End Use
Residential Savings
CI Savings
13
Existing Strategies Will Capture Less Than20 of
Achievable Potential Savings by 2013
14
How Can New England Capture Achievable EE
Potential?

• Continue existing ratepayer funded EE programs
• Implement and enforce building energy codes
• Adopt proposed state and federal minimum
  efficiency appliance standards
• Expand procurement rules for state and municipal
  facilities and equipment purchase
• Adopt or expand resource acquisition role of EE
  to meet specific state and regional electric
  supply needs (e.g., demand response, TD
  requirements, default svc. options)
• Increase ratepayer funding for EE programs

15
How Much More Investment in EE Is Needed to
Offset Load Growth in New England?

• Current/pending policies can offset 50 of
  growth
• New England electric ratepayer funding for EE
• 200 million/year
• 2 billion over next 10 years.
• Building energy codes and proposed state
  standards
• 700 million over 10 years.
• Additional investment to offset load growth
• Additional 2.6 billion needed from 2004-2013
  (more than double current SBC funding levels).

16
5 Militia Drive, Lexington MA  02421 ph
781-860-9177 fax [phone] scoakley_at_neep.org
www.neep.org