Water resources planning case study

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Water resources planning case study

• Climate projections 09 Preston 5th October
  2009

Richard Critchley Water Resources Planning
Manager United Utilities
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Water resources planning case study Topics to
be covered

• Introduction
• United Utilities, its 2009 business plan and
  carbon reduction
• Climate projections for the North West
• Using climate projections in water resources
  planning
• Water source yield forecasts
• Water demand forecasts
• Optional appraisal
• Water resources management plan
• Future studies

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Introduction

• United Utilities is the water and sewerage
  company for North West England
• We provide water supply and wastewater services
  for 6.8 million people and 200,000 businesses
  across North West England
• Target of reducing carbon emissions by 26 per
  cent by 2012
• Our website www.uuplc.co.uk

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Climate projections for the North West
Average precipitation changes by month (source
UKWIR)

• General trend for the North West warmer, wetter
  winters and warmer, drier summers
• Extreme events?
• UKCIP02 climate projections
• Defra CCDeW 2003 water demand projections
• UKWIR06 rainfall and runoff projections
• UKWIR UK water industry research
• UKCP09 climate projections

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Using climate projections in water resources
planning (1) Climate projections for water
source yields
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Using climate projections in water resources
planning (2) Climate projections for water
demand forecasts
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Using climate projections in water resources
planning (3) Supply-demand balance with climate
change
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Using climate projections in water resources
planning (4) Incorporating climate change in
option appraisal

• Total cost of a supply or demand scheme
  Capital costs Operating costs Carbon costs of
  construction activities and materials used
  Carbon costs of UU operations- Carbon benefits
  at customer homes/premises Other environmental
  and social costs
• Greenhouse gas emissions costed using
  Governments shadow price of carbon (25.4 per
  tonne carbon dioxide at 2007 prices)(Note the
  non-traded price of carbon is now 51 per tonne
  carbon dioxide at 2009 prices)

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Using climate projections in water resources
planning (5) Key elements of our plan 2010-15

• West Cumbria leakage reduction, extra water
  efficiency and new water source
• Region-wide initiatives water efficiency,
  voluntary metering and new strategic pipeline
  between Liverpool and Manchester
• 2010-15 plan not directly driven by climate
  projections
• Our Final Water Resources Management Plan is at
  www.uuplc.co.uk/WaterResourcesPlan.htm

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Future studies

• UKWIRs 2009 fast-track study comparison of
  UKCIP02 and UKCP09 projections show similar
  impacts on water sources yields, but increased
  variability
• 3 new UKWIR studies on UKCP09 (in time for 2014
  business plans)
• (1) rainfall-runoff and effects on water source
  yields
• (2) water demand
• (3) other water supply-demand planning issues

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Summary

• Climate change is a major issue for the Water
  Industry
• Detailed climate change modelling undertaken for
  water source yields and water demand
• Large uncertainty and wide range of predictions
• Further studies being undertaken by Water
  Industry

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Thank you