Session I Operations as a System

1
Session IOperations as a System

• Phil Tarnoff
• University of Maryland

2
Topics Covered

• What is mobility?
• Review of ITS and its impact on mobility
• Supply-Demand Concepts
• Emergency Management
• Systems Engineering Risk Management
• Concept of Operations
• Alternatives Analysis using Benefits Costs
• Wrap-up

3
Session Outcomes

• Define mobility as it relates to both the agency
  and the user
• List operations strategies that have an impact on
  mobility
• Relate strategies to supply-demand interactions
• Discuss key systems engineering concepts of risk
  management and concept of operations

4
The Mobility Problem
180
Vehicle travel up 72 Road Miles, up
11980-1998
170
160
150
140
No longer a big city problem-Congestion in small
areas grew 300!
Index 1980 100
130
Added capacity
120
110
100
1998
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
VMT (millions)
Lane Mile Index
5
Levels of Freeway Mobility
6
Levels of Service for 70 mph Free Flow Speed
Criteria Level of Service Level of Service Level of Service Level of Service Level of Service
Criteria A B C D E
Max. Density 11 18 26 35 45
Min. Speed 70.0 70.0 68.2 61.5 53.3
Max. V/C Ratio 0.32 0.53 0.74 0.90 1.00
Max. Flow Rate 770 1260 1770 2150 2400
7
How LOS Works in Practice
Peak Period Free-Flow Speed Speed V/C Ratio LOS
AM 70.5 58.2 0.84 D-E (speed) or C-D (V/C ratio)
PM 71.8 62.3 0.89 C-D (speed V/C ratio)
8
Alternative Congestion Measures

• Level of service (LOS) based on either
• Speed
• V/C Ratio
• Density
• Other measures
• Travel time
• Independent speed thresholds
• Density is most reliable, but most difficult to
  measure

9
Why Such a Big Deal About Congestion?

• Engineers and elected officials have used it to
  define the state of the system
• Reported by States to the Highway Performance
  Monitoring System (HPMS)
• Implicitly represents the balance of supply and
  demand

10
Evolution of Mobility Measures
Travel Time Reliability Hours of Delay
Congestion
11
Definition of Measures Travel Time

• Travel Time The average time to traverse a
  section of roadway in a single direction
• Trip Travel Time The average time required to
  travel from an origin to a destination including
  times for all modes of travel
• Travel Time Reliability The additional time
  that must be added to a trip to ensure that
  travelers will arrive on time 95 of the time.

12
Definition of the Measures - Delay

• Delay The difference between the travel time
  actually required to traverse a roadway segment
  and the unconstrained travel time
• Non-Recurring Delay Vehicle delays in excess of
  recurring delay
• Recurring Delay Vehicle delays that are
  repeatable for the current time-of-day,
  day-of-week, and day-type

13
Topics Covered

• What is mobility?
• Review of ITS and its impact on mobility
• Supply-Demand Concepts
• Emergency Management
• Systems Engineering Risk Management
• Concept of Operations
• Alternatives Analysis using Benefits Costs
• Wrap-up

14
ITS Strategies Traffic Signals

• Includes three variations
• Better timing of time-of-day systems
• Traffic-responsive systems
• Adaptive systems
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side or demand side?
• Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

15
ITS Strategies Ramp Metering

• Includes the following
• Time-of-day systems
• Traffic-responsive systems
• Adaptive systems
• Priority lanes
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side or demand side?
• Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

16
ITS Strategies Incident Management

• Includes the following
• Incident clearance
• Traveler information
• Traffic management
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side or demand side?
• Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

17
ITS Strategies Traffic Operations Centers (TOCs)

• Includes
• Equipment Control
• Incident Coordination
• Communications
• Monitoring
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side, demand side or safety?
  Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

18
ITS Strategies Traveler Information

• Includes the following
• Pre-trip planning
• En-route information
• In-vehicle information
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side or demand side?
  Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

19
ITS Strategies Lane and Speed Control

• Includes the following
• Photo enforcement
• Traffic calming
• Variable speed systems
• Variable lane usage
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side, demand side or safety?
  Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

20
ITS Strategies Electronic Payment Systems

• Includes the following
• Tolling
• Transit fare payment
• Parking payment
• Mileage based insurance
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side or demand side?
  Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

21
ITS Strategies Commercial Vehicle Operations

• Includes the following
• Weigh stations
• Safety inspection
• Border crossings
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side or demand side?
• Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

22
ITS Strategies Transit Operations

• Includes the following
• Bus preemption
• Arrival information
• Improved scheduling
• Applicability
• Type of facility arterial, freeway or corridor?
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring?
• Impact supply-side or demand side?
  Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

23
ITS Strategies In-Vehicle Telematics

• Includes the following
• Navigation
• Safety control
• Information
• Applicability
• Problem addressed - recurring or non-recurring,
  safety?
• Impact supply-side or demand side?
• Effectiveness Widespread, high or low?

24
Topics Covered

• What is mobility?
• Review of ITS and its impact on mobility
• Supply-Demand Concepts
• Emergency Management
• Systems Engineering Risk Management
• Concept of Operations
• Alternatives Analysis using Benefits Costs
• Wrap-up

25
A Holistic View of Operations

• Available data defines effectiveness of
  individual strategies
• Combinations of strategies may
• Enhance each other
• Counteract each other
• Must understand combined impacts
• Supply-demand relationships provide a holistic
  view

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Supply-Demand Relationship Traditional Economics
Supply (Manufacturer)
Demand (Consumer)
Product Cost ()
Equilibrium Point
Number of Units
27
Transportation Supply-Demand Relationship
Actual Demand (VMT)
28
Basic Supply-Demand Relationship more detail
Supply
Demand
Disutility (min. per mile)
Equilibrium Point
LOS2
LOS for Demand D1
D1
Demand at LOS2
Actual Demand (VMT)
29
The Mobility Problem
180
Vehicle travel up 72 Road Miles, up
11980-1998
170
160
150
No longer a big city problem-Congestion in small
areas grew 300
140
Index 1980 100
130
Added capacity
120
110
100
1998
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
VMT (millions)
Lane Mile Index
30
Supply-Demand Changes During the Past 20 Years
New Demand Curve
Supply
Original Demand Curve
New Equilibrium Point
Disutility (min. per mile)
Original Equilibrium Point
Actual Demand (VMT)
Demand Change
31
Class A Actions Demand Reduction Strategies
Supply
Demand
Disutility (min. per mile)
Actual Demand (VMT)
32
Class B Actions Supply-Enhancing Measures
Supply
Demand
Disutility (min. per mile)
Actual Demand (VMT)
33
Class C Actions Demand and Supply Reduction
Supply
Demand
Disutility (min. per mile)
Actual Demand (VMT)
34
Class D Actions Demand Reduction and Supply
Increase
Supply
Demand
Disutility (min. per mile)
Actual Demand (VMT)
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What Does All This Mean? Summary of Impacts
Current Equilibrium Point
Disutility (min. per mile)
C
A
B
D
Maximum Mobility Benefits
Maximum Energy Emissions Benefits
Most Desirable Region
Actual Demand (VMT)
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Representing the Impact of Future Traffic Growth
Future Growth
Disutility (min. per mile)
Maximum Mobility Benefits
Maximum Energy Emissions Benefits
Actual Demand (VMT)
37
Applying the Supply-Demand Concept for Improved
Mobility
Future Growth
D
Disutility (min. per mile)
A
B
Maximum Mobility Benefits
Actual Demand (VMT)
38
Using the Analysis to Ensure Compatible Actions
B
Future Growth
Disutility (min. per mile)
C
Maximum Mobility Benefits
Maximum Energy Emissions Benefits
Actual Demand (VMT)
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The Length of the Arrows (Vectors)

• The X axis represents demand in terms of VMT
• The Y axis represents disutility in terms to be
  selected. Could be
• Level of service (LOS)
• Travel time
• Delay
• Travel cost
• The tip of the arrow represents the change in VMT
  and disutility resulting from the strategy

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Value of the Analysis

• Applicable to recurring conditions
• Provides a balanced comparison of effectiveness
• Ensures selection of compatible actions
• Graphical analysis is unnecessary. Could just
  add the impacts
• Helpful for managing expectations

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Non-Recurring Congestion

• Different from Recurring Congestion
• Different performance measures
• Different strategies
• Different causes
• Impacts equal to or greater than recurring
  congestion
• Impacts on arterials not well understood

42
Comparison of Recurring and Non-Recurring
Operations
Characteristic Recurring Non-Recurring
Causes VMT Crashes Special Events Weather
Mobility Performance Measures Travel Time Delay Incident duration Travel Time Reliability
Strategies HOV lanes Ramp metering Signal timing Incident clearance Incident Management Traveler Information Responsive signal operation
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Non-Recurring -Supply-Demand Perspective

• Supply-demand relationships remain applicable
• Non-recurring congestion occurs when supply is
  temporarily reduced (lane closures, weather,
  etc.)
• Operations objectives are to
• Reduce demand in real-time (traveler information,
  diversion, etc.)
• Reduce incident duration

44
Non-Recurring Performance Measures
Identification
Incident Duration
Response
Clearance
Travel Time Reliability
Recovery
Congestion Duration
Traveler Information
Diversion
Operational Changes
Outcomes
Outputs
45
Supply-Demand Analysis

• Analysis useful for combinations of strategies
• Important to separate recurring and non-recurring
  congestion
• Necessary to define objectives before conducting
  analysis
• Mobility
• Safety
• Air quality
• Recurring or non-recurring measures

46
Topics Covered

• What is mobility?
• Review of ITS and its impact on mobility
• Supply-Demand Concepts
• Emergency Management
• Systems Engineering Risk Management
• Concept of Operations
• Alternatives Analysis using Benefits Costs
• Wrap-up

47
Regional Operations Emergency Situations

• Differ from traditional incidents
• Greater geographic scope
• Unpredictable consequences
• Other agencies involved
• Regional cooperation is essential
• Unpredictable nature requires emphasis on
  communications and careful definition of
  responsibilities

48
Many Different Types of Transportation Emergencies
Man-made events Natural events Characteristics
Terrorist Earthquake
Chemical Release Volcanic eruption
Nuclear power plant Tornado
Dam failure Flood
Hurricane
Warning time
Impact Area
Increasing
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The Impact Area Affects the Response
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The Aftermath of Katrina

• Disagreements among officials at all levels
• Lack of planning follow-through
• Absence of centralized command authority
• Misplaced funding priorities
• Absence of an organization with regional
  responsibilities
• Are these problems unique?

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Responsibility for Initiating Evacuation
State Governor State Emergency Management Office Dept. of Public Safety/State Police Local Agency
Massachusetts a a
New Jersey a a a a
South Carolina a
Virginia a a
Texas a
Source Wolshon, B. et al, Natural Hazards
Review, ASCE, August 2005.
52
Institutional Problems

• Absence of standardization
• Exclusion of transportation from emergency
  management structure(s) exercises
• Need to interact with multiple governmental
  levels
• Need for multi-jurisdictional coordination

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Transportation Operations Are Different

• Importance of inter-jurisdictional coordination
  is increased
• Traffic flow is difficult to predict
• Not all traffic is outbound
• Motorists behave differently
• O-Ds difficult to predict
• Contra-flow operations are likely
• Conventional flow/capacity relationships do not
  apply
• Unanticipated services may be required
• Fuel supply
• Restrooms
• Cleanup

54
Be Prepared for the Unexpected
Credit http//www.pbase.com/rickhodges/hurricane
_rita
55
Things to Remember About Emergency Management

• A significant form of regional operations
• The process is most important (communications
  procedures)
• Expect the unexpected
• Work hard to get included in the emergency
  management program

56
Topics Covered

• What is mobility?
• Review of ITS and its impact on mobility
• Supply-Demand Concepts
• Emergency Management
• Systems Engineering Risk Management
• Concept of Operations
• Alternatives Analysis using Benefits Costs
• Wrap-up

57
Objectives of the Systems Engineering Process

• To ensure development projects completed
• On-time
• Within budget
• Functionally complete
• To ensure that on-going operations projects have
• Realistic expectations
• Common understanding of all participants
• Well defined measures of success

58
Characteristics of the Process

• Careful planning before implementation
• Define the problem to be solved
• Define the system requirements
• Design and specify the system
• Extensive control during implementation
• Control requirements
• Control risks
• Control configuration
• Testing testing - testing

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V Systems Engineering Model
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Systems Engineering for Operations

• Planning Regional Planning Concept of
  operations
• Requirements Define what needs to be done
  (select performance measures)
• Engineering Comparison of alternatives, define
  performance measures
• Implementation Risk management, evaluation
  (performance measurement)

61
Systems Engineering for Operations

• Applies to new systems (traffic management, 511,
  transit dispatch, etc.)
• Applies to operations that do not include new
  equipment (service patrols, signal retiming,
  etc.)
• Emphasizes
• Risk management
• ConOps
• Performance measures/evaluation

62
Risk Management

• Risk management is a decision process that
  includes the acceptance of exposure or the
  reduction of vulnerabilities by either
  mitigating the risks or applying cost effective
  controls.

63
Sources of Risks

• Technology
• People
• Physical environment
• Political environment
• Contract issues
• Increased Risks Increased Costs and Delays

64
Elements of Risk Management
Risk Identification
Risk Planning
Risk Analysis
Risk Prioritization
Risk Management
Risk Monitoring
Risk Control
Risk Resolution
65
Risk Assessment Considerations

• Likelihood of occurrence (probability)
• Potential impact
• Mitigation cost

66
Risk Assessment Output
Likelihood of Occurrence Likelihood of Occurrence Likelihood of Occurrence
High Medium Low
High A B C
Medium D E F
Low G H I
Impact
67
Risk Monitoring

• Risk management plan should
• Identify symptoms of 10 top risks
• Define frequency with which they are checked
• When risk is identified risk resolution actions
  defined by the plan are taken

68
Risk Management Planning for the 511 System

• Identify two risks for the system development
• Identify two risks for the system operation
• Define a risk mitigation plan for any of the four
  risks including
• Risk monitoring
• Risk mitigation

69
Topics Covered

• What is mobility?
• Review of ITS and its impact on mobility
• Supply-Demand Concepts
• Emergency Management
• Systems Engineering Risk Management
• Concept of Operations
• Alternatives Analysis using Benefits Costs
• Wrap-up

70
V Systems Engineering Model
Planning (ConOps)
Retirement/ Replacement
Usage

Testing
Definition


Implementation
Time Line
71
Concept of Operations
A document that defines the environment in which
the system is to operate. A document
describing an organization's structure, roles and
responsibilities, processes, and policies that
all detail the way the organization operates
72
Concept of Operations

• Describes the programs or systems operational
  characteristics
• Facilitates understanding of goals
• Forms the basis for long range planning
• Presents an integrated view of the stakeholder
  organization and mission

ANSI/AIAA G-043-1992 Guide for the Preparation of
Operational Concept Documents
73
Developing the Concept of Operations

• Procedures
• Deployment
• Performance
• Utilization
• Effectiveness
• Life cycle
• Environment
• Maintenance

Identify Stakeholders
Develop a Vision
74
The Concept of Operations Is Developed by the
Stakeholders

• Stakeholders include
• Anyone affected by the project
• Operators
• Personnel involved with system inputs and outputs
• Owners of other systems to be interconnected
• Individuals whose processes will be changed
• Anyone with whom and to whom you should
  communicate about the project

75
What a Concept of Operations Does For Stakeholders

• Provides a common definition of visions, and
  expectations
• Defines current organizational practices and
  procedures
• Describes new organizational practices and
  procedures
• Identifies required changes

76
Sample Vision

• The transit dispatch system will be the focal
  point for controlling bus routing and scheduling
  in real-time under both normal and incident
  conditions. It will include the ability to
  locate and track buses, and to communicate with
  their drivers. It will include interface with
  other transportation systems. The dispatch
  system will disseminate real time bus arrival
  times to riders.

77
Put Meat on the Bones of the Vision by Defining
the Desired Outcomes

• Define expected outcome(s) from new project or
  system
• Defined prior to developing a vision
• Quantitative if possible
• Meaningful and Achievable
• Example Reduce incident response time by 10.

78
Adding the Details

• Procedures
• Deployment
• Performance
• Utilization
• Effectiveness
• Life cycle
• Environment
• Maintenance

Identify Stakeholders
Develop a Vision
79
Procedures

• Define
• Activities to be performed
• Organizational relationships responsibilities
• Information flow
• Message priorities
• Archiving needs
• Administration (including security)

80
What Isnt a Procedure

• Definition of system architecture
• Description of hardware and software
• Specification of system functions
• Procedures define what must be done and who
  should do it.
• Procedures do NOT define how to do it.

81
Deployment

• Where will the system be used?
• What jurisdictions will use it?
• What organizations will it support?
• What geographic area will it cover?
• Deployment should be defined for each of the
  development phases

82
Performance

• Defines critical parameters (captures
  expectations)
• Examples
• Delays (time to display messages)
• Measurement accuracy (location, speed)
• Processing accuracy (incident detection
  probability)

83
Utilization Environment

• Under what conditions will various parts of the
  system be used
• Applicability limited
• Examples
• User skills
• Competing demands for users attention

84
Effectiveness

• How well does the system perform its intended
  mission
• First step in defining performance evaluation
• Examples
• Reduced incident clearance time
• Increased bus ridership
• Reduced truck delays at weigh stations

85
Life Cycle

• How long do you expect the system to last
• Affects design in many ways
• Vision
• System capacities (expandability)
• Provisions for future upgrades
• Budgeting for capital expenditures

86
Environment

• This category defines the conditions under which
  the system must operate.
• Examples
• Temperature
• Humidity
• Dust and dirt
• Power (both failures and fluctuations)

87
Maintenance

• Should be part of the ConOps
• Include maintenance practices and procedures
• Procedures should include both routine and
  emergency maintenance
• Contract vs. in-house maintenance compared and
  plans established

88
More Details for Procedures

• Procedures
• Deployment
• Performance
• Utilization
• Effectiveness
• Life cycle
• Environment
• Maintenance

Identify Stakeholders
Develop a Vision
89
A Few Words About Procedures

• The heart of the ConOps
• Applicable to all activities
• ITS Systems
• Incident management
• Emergency Management
• Items often included in the ConOps
• Responsibility tables
• Scenarios

90
A Sample of a Typical Responsibility Table
Responsibility TMC Manager TMC Operator Maintenance Dispatch District Engineer
Contacting Executives Lead Support Support
Work Zone Logging Support Lead Support
Weather Monitoring Support Lead Support
Incident Response Management Lead Lead Support
Source System Engineering for ITS, January
2007, US DOT, FHWA, Pg. 30
91
A Different Responsibility Table Data Production
Category Data Item DDOT MDOT VDOT Mont. Co.
Video Images CCTV Source Source Source Source
Video Images Aerial Video Source
Construct. Maint. Planned Closures Source Source Source Source
Construct. Maint. Emergency Closures Source Source Source Source
Incident Manage. Incident Info. Source Source Source Source
Incident Manage. Alternate Routing
Source Concept of Operations RITIS, UMD CATT,
January 30, 2007
92
Procedures for 511 - Example

• Entry of incident data Into 511 system
• Incident report received by traffic operations
  center
• Data entered into incident report
• Checks made for duplicate entries (from other
  source)
• Incident information consolidated for 511 usage
• Incident entered into 511 system for
  dissemination
• Incident dissemination event logged
• Deletion reminder posted for operator action when
  incident cleared

93
Scenario for Incident Management - Example

• Law Enforcement, 1st on the Scene
• Evaluate scene safety
• Assess incident severity
• Observe Hazmat indicators
• Assess need for help fire and rescue, etc.
• Report observations to dispatcher
• Notify State Highway Operations Center
• Notify other police as appropriate
• In DC Region notify Montgomery County/Prince
  Georges County TMCs
• In Baltimore region notify SHA District 4
• Etc

Source Maryland Statewide Incident Management
Coord., Draft, 8/12/2004
94
Scenario Example for Regional Emergency Response
Step What Happens Now If CapCom Existed
Discovery First responders First responders
ID as regional incident Uncertain CapCom/First Responders
Facilitate regional coordination Lead Agency (varies-often unclear) CapCom initiates (e.g. conference call)
Ongoing communications Ad hoc Scheduled CapCom ensures it occurs
Information dissemination Ad hoc stovepiped agency by agency CapCom in coordination with agencies
Tracking regional impacts Ad hoc CapCom
Closeout Lead agency Lead agency with CapCom assistance
Lessons learned Ad hoc CapCom initiates, facilitates documents
95
Do I Really Need a Concept of Operations?

• Yes!
• A Concept of Operations defines the relationship
  between organizations as well as the system and
  the organization
• Dont initiate an activity until the processes it
  supports have been defined

96
Topics Covered

• What is mobility?
• Review of ITS and its impact on mobility
• Supply-Demand Concepts
• Emergency Management
• Systems Engineering Risk Management
• Concept of Operations
• Alternatives Analysis using Benefits Costs
• Wrap-up

97
Benefits and Costs

• This is the fundamental information required for
  assessing operational improvements
• More difficult to obtain than construction-related
  improvements
• Benefits for operations may be lower than than
  construction benefits, but affect a larger area
  (more motorists)

98
Using B/C for Analyzing Alternatives

• Agencies are frequently faced with comparison of
  operational alternatives in a resource-constrained
  environment
• The challenge find the best solution to a
  problem when multiple solutions exist
• This is generally performed as a design activity

99
B/C Analysis
Sum of the Financial Benefits Sum of the System
Costs
B/C
For example Benefits (mobility benefits)
(safety benefits) (air quality benefits)
(fuel savings) Costs (capital costs)
(recurring costs of maintenance and operation)
100
Consistency Between Benefits and Costs

• If benefits are analyzed on an annual basis, the
  same must be true of the costs
• Operations and maintenance costs are typically
  measured (budgeted) annually
• Capital costs must be converted to an annual cost

101
Equation for Converting Capital Costs to Annual
Costs
Equivalent Annual Cost (One-time Cost)
(Conversion Factor) Using mathematical symbols,
this is EAC C A Where A is calculated
based on the life of the system (n) and the
interest rate (i), using the following equation
i (1 i)n (1 i)n - 1
A
102
B/C Example - Benefits

• Considering a new service patrol with five new
  vehicles and ten operators
• Suppose the following benefits have been
  estimated from improved response time
• Value of reduced accidents experienced by
  stranded motorists 1.2 million
• Value of reduced secondary collisions, 2 million
• Total benefits 3.2 million

103
B/C Example - Costs

• Vehicle purchase 5 60,000 300,000
• Initial training 20,000
• Vehicle maintenance 5 2,000 10,000/yr.
• Operator salaries 10 30,000 300,000/yr.
• Ongoing (refresher) training 5,000/yr.
• Cost of money (interest) 6
• Life of system 7 years

104
Calculating B/C Ratio

• Total Benefits 3.2 million
• Recurring cost conversion factor (A) 0.18
• Total Cost 0.18 (320,000) 315,000
• B/C Ratio 3.2 million/(57,600 315,000)
• B/C Ratio 3.2 million/372,600
• B/C Ratio 8.6

105
Graphical Representation of B/C Ratio
Benefits
3.2 Million
372,600
Cost
106
B/C Ratio with Uncertainty
Benefits
(2)
(1)
(3)
Cost
107
B/C Ratio with Uncertainty
Benefits
Funding constraint
(2)
(1)
(3)
Cost
108
Sources of Benefit and Cost Data

• USDOT ITS databases
• ITS Deployment Analysis System (IDAS)
• Simulation (benefits only)
• Agency data
• Experience of other agencies

109
USDOT ITS Databases

• Available data
• Applications overviews
• Benefits database
• Cost database
• Deployment statistics
• Lessons learned database
• Comprehensive coverage
• Information should be used with discretion, since
  it was developed under different conditions
• Ref http//www.itslessons.its.dot.gov/its/beneco
  st.nsf/

110
A Sample of USDOT Data
Strategy Impacts
Traffic Signal Retiming Delay reduced 8 to 25
Ramp Metering Speeds increased 24
Freeway Incident Management Incident duration reduced 39 to 51
Traveler Information On time reliability improved 5 to 16
111
ITS Deployment Analysis System (IDAS)

• Uses outputs of existing transportation planning
  models
• Compares ITS deployment alternatives
• Estimates impacts and traveler responses
• Estimates life-cycle costs
• Provides documentation for design and
  implementation
• Normalizes data from multiple sources
• Ref http//idas.camsys.com

112
Simulation

• Variety of models available
• CorSim
• Vissim
• Dynasmart
• The only tools available for evaluating
  performance of a specific system

113
Agency Data

• All agencies should maintain data on life cycle
  costs of operational programs
• Acquisition costs
• Maintenance costs
• Operational costs
• Ideally all programs should be accompanied by
  performance measurement
• Agency databases essential
• Budget justification
• Planning
• Information sharing with others

114
Experience of Other Agencies

• Wealth of information available
• Programmed web search for DOT experiences at
• http//www.google.com/coop/cse?cx006511338351663
  1611393Acnk1qdck0dc
• Some of this is duplicated in the USDOT database

115
Topics Covered

• What is mobility?
• Review of ITS and its impact on mobility
• Supply-Demand Concepts
• Emergency Management
• Systems Engineering Risk Management
• Concept of Operations
• Alternatives Analysis using Benefits Costs
• Wrap-up

116
The Future Some Things are Certain

• Focus on operations increases (ITS)
• Congestion pricing becomes the norm (ITS)
• Telecommuting becomes recognized as a
  transportation function
• Sophistication of vehicle electronics increases
  (with or without public sector participation)

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The Details Are More Difficult To Predict

• "I think there is a world market for maybe five
  computers." --Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM,
  1943
• "640K (memory) ought to be enough for anybody."
  -- Bill Gates, 1981
• Windows displays are nothing more than a passing
  fad. Phil Tarnoff, 1985

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Three Alternative Futures

• Do nothing The present course with all its
  consequences
• Aggressive Evolutionary technology, increased
  funding (increased public pressure)
• Paradigm Shift Vehicle/infrastructure
  integration (my personal favorite)

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Paradigm Shift high quality operational
information
Vehicle Sensor Data
Database
Receiver
Vehicle
Management Information
TMC
120
Paradigm Shift

• Think about the opportunities
• We could actually manage the system
• We could provide reliable traveler information
• The challenges are
• Data collection
• Institutional issues
• Funding

121
Conclusions

• The future can either be grim or exciting
• As professionals, we can influence the results
• Lets focus on operations
• Thinking outside the box can be useful

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