Presentation on Malacca Straits : Refined Risk Assessment

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Presentation on Malacca Straits Refined Risk
Assessment

• By Harold Hai and Paul Chan, on 2nd May, 2007

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Purposes of the Assessment

• 1. Investigate likely causes to damages in
  various natural resources Retrospective Risk
  Assessment
• 2. Define likely harm to ecological system
  human health Prospective Risk Assessment
• 3. Encourage management intervention
• 4. Provide some conclusion recommendation for
  strengthening marine pollution risk management in
  the Straits

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Malacca Strait Map
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1. Initial Risk Assessment (Retrospective)
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A. Decline in habitatsA1. Mangroves

• How bad ?
• All the 3 counties in average lost their
  mangroves substantially by over 50 in the last
  20 years
• - Indonesia largest mangroves area and with
  highest lost

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A. Decline in habitatsA2. Peat Swamp Forest

• How bad?
• Indonesia about 50 lost
• Malaysia about 77 lost
• Singapore Comparatively small

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A. Decline in habitats A3. Coral Reef

• How bad ?
• 1. See Conditions of growth
• 2. Indonesia 42 poor, 29 fair, 24 good and
  only 5 excellent
• 3. Malaysia Most in fair conditions
• none in excellent condition
• 4. Singapore highly stressed No analyses
  of changing diversity

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A. Decline in habitatsA4. Seagrass beds

• How bad ?
• 1. No formal quantitative data on areal coverage
• 2. 50 species known seagrass in the world
• 3. 12 founded in Indonesia
• 4. 9 found in Malaysia
• 5. 7 found in Singapore

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A. Decline in habitatsA5. Soft bottom habitats

• How bad ?
• 1. No formal quantitative data on areal coverage
• 2. Quality is more concerned
• - originally support commercial and
  non-commercial benthic species
• - affected recently by chemical including TBT
• - cause female gastropods imposex
• - negative correlation to shipping route

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Why ?

• 1. Mostly by anthropogenic destruction for
  economical development
• 2. Pollution products derived from land
  activities
• e.g. Metals, Pesticides, untreated sewage and
  industrial discharge, oil spills and herbicides
• 3. Logging
• 4. Sedimentation (by poor upland management)
• 5. Fishing intensity trawling
• 6. Massive land reclamations
• 7. Natural disasters e.g. storms or diseases
• 8. Deposit of mining spoils and tailings
• 9. Excessive deposition of silt due to
  deforestation and blast fishing

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Then.

• 1. Reduced protection from coastal erosion,
  typhoon and floods, nursery ground for commercial
  and non-commercial fish and invertebrates
• 2. Reduced protection from endangered species and
  conserving biodiversity
• 3. Reduced fishing production
• 4. Economic losses from reduced tourism
• 5. Increase sediment
• 6. Contamination of marine food products

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B. Biodiversity B1. Non-commercial Species

• How bad ?
• A lot of indigenous fish once abundant now become
  rare, endangered or extinct e.g. Alosa toil is
  rare and Lactarius lactarius is now extinct,
  sittings of sting ray have decreased and dugongs
  were once common in Strait but now rare
• Why ?
• Loss of major habitats
• Direct ecotoxicological effect of contaminants of
  various kinds
• Then
• Loss of contribution to stablility and
  functioning of ecosystems
• Reduce aesthetic and tourist attraction

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B. Biodiversity B2. Commercial Species

• How bad ?
• Reducing Catch per unit effort
• Fishermen are moving away from the Straits to
  other waters
• Why ?
• Overfishing
• More effective fishing methods ultrasonic fish
  detector, larger fishing net with finer holes
  etc.
• Increase of fishermen since 1960
• Soft bottom species e.g. seaweeds, horseshoe
  crabs. Shrimps, bivalves, gastropods, seacucumber
  and sea urchins were trawled indiscriminately
• Seabed were totally destructed
• Then
• Biodiversity and overall quantities of
  commercially valuable species were exploited
• Economical return on fishing were then reduced

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C. Human Health

• How bad ?
• Gastrointestinal and other communicable diseases
  was not totally correlated with the water quality
  or contaminated seafood consumption or dermal
  exposure
• Relevant figure on morbidity is unavailable
• Some particular acute cases due to specific
  accidents

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2. Refined Risk Assessment (Prospective)
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2. Refined Risk Assessment Stage (Prospective)

• Prospective Risk Assessment
• To estimate the likelihood of adverse effect to
  targets (humans, ecosystem in Malacca Straits)
  from existing and might existing environmental
  conditions.

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• For human health risk assessment
• RQ (MEL or PEL)/ (PNEL or LOC)
• For ecosystem risk assessment
• RQ (MEC or PEC)/ (PNEC or STD)
• Note
• MEL measured exposure level PEL predicted
  exposure level
• PNEL predicted no (observable) effect level
  LOC Level of concern
• MEC measured environmental concentration PEC
  predicted env. conc.
• PNEC predicted no effect conc. STD Standards
  (worldwide/ local).

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• RQ gt 1
• Give a signal of problem which increase with size
  of ratio
• RQ lt1
• The likelihood of effect is low/ a situation of
  no concern.

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• RQ is not given a precise probability of adverse
  effect since PNEC (eco-toxicological
  toxicological data), MEC MEL (sampling
  analytical techniques), PEC/ PEL (assumptions)
  depend on different variables.

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• Major concerns
• 1. Heavy metals
• in water (RQ MECs/STDs)
• in sediments (RQ MECs/ Critical conc.)
• Human health (RQ Daily Metal Intake/ Tolerable
  Daily Intake)
• Heavy metals As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb,
  Zn)

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• 2. Pesticide
• In water (MEC/ STD)
• In sediment (MEC/Critical Sediment conc)
• Human health (Daily Intake/ LOC)
• Pesticides DDT, Endrin, Heptachlor, etc (totally
  7 kinds).

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• 3. TBT
• Include conc. in water, in sediment to human
  health.
• 4. Nutrients (N, P) Oxygen Demand
• In water body
• 5. Total Suspended Solids
• In water body
• 6. Coliforms (total fecal)
• In water and sediments, to human health.
• 7. Oil, Grease, Petroleum, Hydrocarbons and Tar
  Balls
• In water, sediments and to human health.

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• Risk assessment also consider accidental
  situation such as accidental spillage of oil
  tankers in sea
• Accidental discharge was measured to be major
  contribution of MEC in water, so must be taken
  into account.

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• By the analysis of all concerned categories of
  materials, a comparative risk assessment based on
  RQ of different materials was produced to help
  easier understanding and deciding the risk
  management.
• RQlt 1, no immediate concern
• RQgt1000, immediate risk reduction measures.

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Prospective Risk Assessment
Table 44. Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities
Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants
Contaminants RQs RQs
lt1 lt1 1-10 1-10 10-100 10-100 100-1000 gt1000
Metals ---------------------------------- Cu ---------------------------------- Cu ---------------------------------- Cu ---------------------------------- Cu ---------------------------------- Cu ---------------------------------- Cu ---------------------------------- Cu ---------------------------------- Cu

Pesticides ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------
TBT --------------------- --------------------- --------------------- --------------------- --------------------- --------------------- --------------------- ---------------------
BOD ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- -----------------------------------
TSS ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- -----------------------------------
Oils and Hydrocarbons ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs
given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated
with filled circles. with filled circles.
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Prospective Risk Assessment
Table 45. Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities
Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants
Contaminants RQs RQs
lt1 lt1 1-10 1-10 10-100 10-100 100-1000 gt1000
Metals
-------------------- Cu -------------------- Cu -------------------- Cu -------------------- Cu -------------------- Cu -------------------- Cu -------------------- Cu -------------------- Cu
Pesticides Dieldrin Dieldrin Dieldrin Dieldrin Dieldrin Dieldrin Dieldrin Dieldrin
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aldrin Endosulfan Aldrin Endosulfan Aldrin Endosulfan Aldrin Endosulfan Aldrin Endosulfan Aldrin Endosulfan Aldrin Endosulfan Aldrin Endosulfan
TBT ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
Oils and Hydrocarbons ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------
Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs
given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated
with filled circles. with filled circles.
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Prospective Risk Assessment
Table 46. Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Human Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Human Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Human Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Human Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Human Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Human Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Human
Health from various Contaminants Health from various Contaminants Health from various Contaminants Health from various Contaminants Health from various Contaminants Health from various Contaminants
Contaminants RQs RQs
lt1 lt1 1-10 1-10 10-100 10-100 100-1000
Copper -------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------
Zinc -------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- --------------------------------
Cadmium ------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------
Lead ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mercury -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iron ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------
Chromium ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------- -----------------------------
Manganese ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------- -----------------------------
Nickel --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- ---------------------------
Arsenic ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pesticides ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------
Coliforms ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based on PECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based on PECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based on PECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based on PECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based on PECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based on PECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based on PECs Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based on PECs

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Prospective Risk Assessment

• Implication for risk management
• 1. immediate action to heavy metals after
  identified the source
• 2. TSS for ecological system
• 3. Oil and hydrocarbons are a cause of concern
• 4. Pesticides are a worry in sediments
• 5. Potential health effects from contaminated
  shellfishes and fishes.
• 6. Coliforms from sewage pollution represents
  better sewage treatment required.

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Summary and Recommendations
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 1. Development of a coordinated monitoring
  program for natural resources
• - More precise and consistent inventory of
  quality and quantity of natural resources

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 2. Development of a coordinated monitoring
  program for chemical contaminations
• - Standardization of measuring method and
  analytical procedure to obtain mutually
  recognized and consistent data

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 3. Development of exposure models
• - Model incorporating hydrodynamic profile in the
  Straits
• - Distribution and decomposition of contaminants
  can be more precisely predicted

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 4. Harmonization of cirtical concentrations
• - PNEC can be mutually agreed

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 5. Detailed risk assessment of metals in water
• - A more refined study on sources and
  exposure levels on certain extraordinary
  hazardous metal e.g. Hg and Cu

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 6. Determination of sources and critical effect
  levels for suspended solids
• - A more detail analysis on land-based
  activities and mangroves to the level of
  suspended solid

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 7. Oil and hydrocarbon contamination
• - Needs to know more about composition and
  distribution

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 8. A risk-based strategy for avoiding ecological
  impacts from oil spills
• - To minimise exposure of sensitive habitats

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 9. Ecological risk from nutrients
• - Identify certain signs of eutrophication

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 10. More refined risk assessment of pesticides in
  sediments
• - A more extensive and carefully designed
  sampling program for verifying the mathematical
  modeling of distribution

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 11. Human health effects from marine contaminants
• - A more detail assessment on likely impacts
  from major contaminant
• - More effective treatment facilities for
  industrial and municipal sewage discharges

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 12. Further consideration of causes of decline in
  commercial fisheries
• - A more intensive study on causes of
  decline
• - A review of methods for assessing fish
  stocks and sustainable yields

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Recommendations from the Assessment Report

• 13. Benefit-cost analysis as an integral part of
  risk management program
• - Benefits from improved management by
  avoiding damages should be noticed
• - A drive or incentive for littoral states and
  related parties to improve their environmental
  policies

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Additional Recommendations

• 1. Remedial policies should be adopted by the
  littoral states to mitigate the further
  deterioration of the environment
• 2. To establish contingency plan to tackle with
  accidental oil or chemical spillages.
• 3. To identify certain parameters of continuous
  monitoring on predicting the triggering of
  seasonal eutrophication before it occurs

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Additional Recommendations

• 4. Long term agreement on sustainable fishing
  practices should be ratified among the littoral
  states like what some European countries are
  doing e.g. max. catch weight per trip and minimum
  weight per fish etc.
• 5. More stringent environmental policies and
  legislation should be established among the
  littoral states.
• 6. An open and convenient complaint system,
  investigation organisations and effective
  punitive and self-adjustable mechanism should be
  established

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Additional Recommendations

• 7. Physical observation and primary data should
  be collected particularly for this study to
  verifying the accuracy of the MECs collected,
  especially for those without significant
  inventory of data, e.g. oil and hydrocarbons
• 8. Clinical survey data of acute cases on human
  health by seafood poisoning should be collected
  for further refined risk assessment
• 9. A simplified and concise version of this
  report should be written for a better
  communication with non-environmental or technical
  personnel, government officers, public media or
  even general public who are the in fact the
  decision makers and influencers of environmental
  policies.

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Additional Recommendations

• 10. The formulation of localized NOEL due to
  differences in environmental conditions and
  susceptibility levels of ecological species and
  human beings to relevant contaminants
• 11. Synergistic effect of mixture of chemicals in
  different territories should be identified and
  assessed.
• 12. More effective sewage water treatments should
  be installed for improve the discharges to the
  Straits.
• 13. Hong Kong and Chinese governments should
  carry out similar extensive refined risk
  assessment periodically for Hong Kong and PRD
  regions due to the serious environmental damages
  on ecological system and potentially on human
  health.

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Conclusion

• ERA is a vital tool in communicating all the
  stake holders concerned including government,
  relevant trade and industries organisations,
  citizens and green groups etc. for their
  awareness and actions on improving the
  environment.
• Without any change in their mindset, legislation,
  policy making, mode and practice of industrial
  operations and daily habits, it is just useless.

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Conclusion

• This Malacca straits research provides a good
  example for HK government and local expertise to
  consider and even to force building up a local
  continuous ecological data-bank so as to reserve
  valuable natural habitats. Also, this helps to
  provide information for conducting SEA, EIAs and
  improve accuracy and efficiency of EIAs in HK.

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Conclusion

• In prospective RA, uncertainly analysis was
  considered and conducted for each contaminant/
  pollutant. One major uncertainty parameter in
  PNEC/ PNEL is no local standard. Thus, standard
  in other countries such as EU is applied that is
  not truly appropriated for local conditions.
  Limited baseline data cannot give a good
  estimation of risk/impact. Set up a local
  standard and data are must.

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Conclusion

• In geological location, Malacca Straits is
  downstream of Delta region. Exchange of
  ecological data/ research in future provides a
  broad view of source of impact in this SE asia
  sea region.

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Thank you !

• Any Question ?