International Conference on Establishment Surveys

1

Adding New Data Elements to an Ongoing Survey
Operational and Response Issues

• International Conference on Establishment
  Surveys
• Montreal, 2007
• Richard Rosen, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  rosen.richard_at_bls.gov
• Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of
  the authors and do not constitute policy of the
  Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2
Current Employment Statistics Survey

• One of the oldest and largest US Surveys
• Number of workers, payroll and hours
• Monthly
• Quick turnaround
• Reference period is the pay period of the 12th
• 12 collection days
• Data published first Friday of following month
• Data closely watched by policymakers, financial
  markets, media, business, labor

3
Current Data Items

• All Employees
• Woman Employees
• Production/Construction/Nonsupervisory
• Employees
• Payroll
• Hours
• Overtime (Manufacturing)

4
New Data Items

• All Employee
• Payroll
• Hours
• Overtime (Manufacturing)
• Gross Monthly Earnings (GME)

5
Reason for New Data Items

• Production workers only comprise about 80 of
  total, therefore the hours/earnings measures are
  not comprehensive
• Research showed that more respondents could
  provide total payroll and hours
• GME broader measure of earning wanted by BEA for
  personal income and GDP

6
Data Item Issues OLD

• Production/Construction/Nonsupervisory
• Definition not clearly understood
• Hard to obtain from payroll records
• Data item response about 40 for payroll/hours

7
Data Item Issues NEW

• Availability of Hours for Supervisors/managers,
  etc.
• Multiple payrolls (i.e.. Managers paid biweekly,
  Nonsupervisory paid weekly)
• Gross Monthly Earnings New concept, different
  time period

8
Tasks

• Forms Design
• Systems Updates
• Two processing/estimation systems
• Six collection systems
• Data transport system
• Estimator for GME
• Train interviewers and other staff

9
Planning

• Began in 2003 for implementation in 2005
• Teams to work on all major aspects
• Forms
• Systems
• Edits
• Estimation

10
Forms

• How to get additional data items on form (twice
  as many items)
• How to handle multiple payrolls
• Separation of GME from other items
• Different concept/definition
• Different time period (entire month)
• Different reasons for change

11
Forms-Cont.

• Interdisciplinary Team
• Developed four different layouts
• Expert review
• Two rounds of cognitive field tests
• Downey, Goldenberg, Rosen, Gomes, Manning,
  Cognitive Testing of New Forms for the Current
  Employment Statistics Survey, ASA, August 2005.

12
(No Transcript)
13
CES Collection Form-New
14
Edits No Real History

• What would relationship be between All Employee
  Earnings and Production Worker Earnings?
• General expectation that it would be higher, but
  by how much
• GME even more difficult
• Inclusion of bonuses, stock options, severance
  pay could really skew data
• Made some initial assumptions revised as actual
  data became available

15
Respondents

• How to notify respondents of change?
• How will respondents react?
• More data items
• Increased burden
• Will response rates suffer?

16
Respondent Contact

• Varied by mode
• Many respondents on self-reporting modes
  touchtone, mail.
• CATI Interviewer began to discuss two months
  before change
• FAX Interviewers made special efforts to contact
  in advance

17
Respondent Contact-cont.

• Special Transition Letter
• Electronic Began intensive work with firms to
  reprogram electronic files
• Touchtone and mail Designed mock form to
  highlight new items

18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
Results

• Overall transition has been successful
• Higher data item response for All Employee
  Payroll/Hours
• Reasonably high item response for GME
• But
• Overall response rates have declined

21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
Begin AEPP
24
Data Item Response

• AE Payroll and GME reporting mostly mirrors what
  respondents were providing for PW Payroll by mode
• TDE Good reporters high response
• CATI/FAX More reluctant reporter, hence need
  CATI modest response
• EDI Many large firms not currently providing PW
  payroll difficult to convince firms to
  re-program their data files slow improvement

25
Data Item Response Rates
26
(No Transcript)
27
(No Transcript)
28
Looking at the new data

• Hourly Earning for All Workers averages about 15
  higher than current series
• Gross Monthly Earnings is somewhat volatile,
  shows spikes at end of each quarter, especially
  4th Quarter likely due to Bonus Payments

29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31
(No Transcript)
32
Conclusion

• Conversion to new data elements appears to be
  successful. Conversion has been easier with
  smaller firms.
• Some decline in overall response due to increased
  respondent burden
• Trade-off in terms of improved data item response
  and usefulness of new data