The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: Taking the Next Steps

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The Arctic ClimateImpact AssessmentTaking the
Next Steps

• Michael MacCracken
• Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs
• Climate Institute, Washington DC, and
• Member, ACIA Synthesis Team

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• Global Warming will be experienced in distinct
  ways in each region.
• We must look at impacts regionally to gain a
  sense of their influences on both the regions
  and the worlds environment and society.
• The Arctic is one of the most vulnerable regions!

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With the climate changing so rapidly, the
people of the Arctic wanted and needed more
information about the changes and how best to
prepare and adapt
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The Foundation volume with 18 technical chapters
will be published in early summer 2005, and is
currently available on the Web at http//www.acia.
uaf.edu/ pages/scientific.html
The Overview volume was published in November
2004, and is available from Cambridge University
Press and on the Web at http//amap.no/workdocs/
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ACIAs Ten Key Findings

• Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much
  larger changes are projected
• Arctic warming and its consequences have
  worldwide implications
• Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift,
  causing wide-ranging impacts
• Animal species' diversity, ranges, and
  distribution will change
• Many coastal communities and facilities face
  increasing exposure to storms
• Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine
  transport and access to resources
• Thawing ground will disrupt transportation,
  buildings, and other infrastructure
• Indigenous communities are facing major economic
  and cultural impacts
• Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect
  people, plants, and animals and
• Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to
  people and ecosystems.

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The ACIA Report Is Just a Beginning

• The Assessment Reports of the IPCC make clear
  that global climate is changing and that changes
  will continue for at least a century
• The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
  confirms that change is underway and provides an
  initial evaluation and projection of impacts
• An on-going assessment process (or dialogue) will
  be essential to helping those in the Arctic to
  adapt--the next steps need to be taken

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Global Warming is evident over both the land
and the oceans
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The Briffa et al. Scaled Record is Mainly from NH
Land Records, so Similar to Arctic Land Records
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Warming in the Arctic is twice as large as for
the world
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Trends in Mean Temperature
Annual
(1900-1945)
(1946-1965)
(1966-2003)
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Winter
Spring
(1966-2003)
Summer
Fall
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--Global average from 1990
ACIAs analysis focused mostly on the relatively
conservative B2 emissions scenario
ltA2
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B2 Emissions Scenario
Arctic
Global
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For most analyses, results from the 5 ACIA
Models were averaged
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Average of Results from the 5 ACIA Models
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Climatic and ecological changes in the Arctic
will also affect the habitats of birds, fish, and
marine mammals that breed and grow in the Arctic
during summer
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Sea ice retreat allows storm waves to grow in
size and increase coastal damage
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What ACIA Has Done is Only a Beginning

• The report is based on understanding through
  (roughly) 2003 more is being and will be
  learned.
• The reports findings tend to be general, with
  significant uncertainties remaining and a number
  of questions not addressed.
• The Arctic region and its communities are
  changing, generating needs for new information.
• The Arctics environmental and economic
  connections to the rest of the world are
  changing, changing the intensity and types of
  stresses.

Assessment must be an on-going process, with
continuing synergy between progress in research
and exchange of information with decision-makers
and stakeholders, using periodic reports to forge
region-wide synthesis.
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For this to happen, structures and processes need
to be created to make assessment into an on-going
process

• The assessment process needs to encompass
• Summarization of existing knowledge and
  understanding
• Analysis of the regions vulnerability, including
  its exposure and sensitivity to change and its
  adaptive capacity and
• Development, application and evaluation of coping
  strategies that build resilience and reduce
  deleterious consequences.
• The assessment process needs to involve
• The regions residents, Indigenous and
  non-indigenous
• The regions governmental and institutional
  leaders
• Those who interact with the region through
  commercial linkages, including extraction and use
  of the regions resources and
• The scientific and expert community that studies,
  analyzes, and projects Arctic conditions.

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Designing the science component of the on-going
research and assessment program has already begun
With financial support, structures are in place
to promote the needed scientific advances
ACIAs seventeen technical chapters, each
describing findings needed research
Scientific knowledge understanding
ACIA chapter 18 summarizes research needs
Scientific program design, including ICARP-II
International and regional research programs,
including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.
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A complementary structure thatincludes the
regions peoples is needed
Individual, community, national, and
international activities aimed at facilitating
regional adaptation (and global mitigation)
ACIAs seventeen technical chapters, each
describing findings needed research
ACIAs seventeen technical chapters, each
describing findings needed research
Indigenous perspectives and resident expertise
ACIA Overview's ten key findings
Stakeholder evaluation and needs
Scientific knowledge understanding
ACIA chapter 18 summarizes research needs
Scientific program design, including ICARP-II
International and regional research programs,
including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.
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The Set of Future Activities Must Include Both
Loops--Interacting Together
Individual, community, national, and
international activities aimed at facilitating
regional adaptation (and global mitigation)
ACIAs seventeen technical chapters, each
describing findings needed research
ACIAs seventeen technical chapters, each
describing findings needed research
Indigenous perspectives and resident expertise
ACIA Overview's ten key findings
Stakeholder evaluation and needs
Scientific knowledge understanding
ACIA chapter 18 summarizes research needs
Scientific program design, including ICARP-II
International and regional research programs,
including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.
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The Scientific Loop Already Includes Many
Activities--Linking Them is the Challenge

• Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP)
• Working Group on the Conservation of Arctic Flora
  and Fauna (CAFF) and other Arctic Council working
  groups
• Research projects of the International Arctic
  Sciences Committee (IASC)
• International Conference on Arctic Research
  Planning (ICARP II)
• International programs such as International
  Study of Arctic Change (ISAC)
• World Climate Research Programmes Climate and
  Cryosphere (CliC) project and Climate Variations
  (CLIVAR) project
• Time-focused efforts such as the International
  Polar Year (IPY)
• Global Environment Observing System of Systems
  (GEOSS)
• Programmatic interests of the International Group
  of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research
  (IGFA)
• Regional and national programs (e.g., EU, NOAA,
  and many more)

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Research activities can perhaps be grouped into 5
research themes

• Projecting the Future of the Arctic Using Past
  Trends, Present Observations, and Model
  Simulations
• The Melting of the Arctic Ice, Snow, Water, Sea
  Level, and the Hydrologic Cycle
• The Disruption of Arctic Marine Life Polar
  Bears, Seals, Birds, and Fisheries
• Ecosystem Disruption and Reformation The Shifts
  and Transformations of the Arctics Biota and
  Wildlife and Impacts on the Roles they Play
• Adapting and Coping with Change in the Arctic
  Meeting the Information Needs of Communities,
  Organizations, Government and the Public

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The Stakeholder loop needs to be recognized and
re-enforced

• While ACIA started the dialogue process, much
  more is needed
• Many aspects of possible impacts were not
  sufficiently examined
• Multiple stress effects were not fully explored
  and
• Findings tended to focus on averages over space
  and time, whereas stakeholders face their
  challenges in particular locations at particular
  times.
• Local efforts need to build to national and
  regional efforts
• Canada and other of the Arctic nations are
  already working on this

Stakeholders will want further information, with
more details and greater confidence in the
results, and they must be an integral part of the
assessment process, asking questions, providing
feedback, and helping tailor the information they
need
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A Sampling of Possible Questions Regarding
Finding 4 Animal species' diversity, ranges,
and distribution will change.

• What is expected to happen to arctic wildlife
  over the next few decades and longer?
• What will happen to the various migrating
  species?
• What options are there for minimizing adverse
  impacts on the most critical species?
• As the sea ice recedes, where will fish stocks
  relocate?
• Will particular fish stocks increase or
  decrease, and how should they be managed for
  sustained yield in the face of climate change?
• Are some species expected to go extinct? What
  measures could help to slow this?
• How will the impacts of climate change compare
  to the effects of other stresses?

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Such questions in turn suggest a number of
research activities

• For example
• 4.1. Inventorying and Monitoring Arctic Species
• 4.2. Improve Understanding of Effects of Climate
  and Other Stresses on Species
• 4.3. Refine Models of Marine and Terrestrial
  Species
• 4.4. Evaluate and Expand the Set of Management
  Options for Terrestrial Species
• 4.5. Evaluate and Expand the Set of Management
  Options for Marine Species (migratory fisheries,
  subsistence species, etc.)

Stakeholders will benefit from the outcomes of
the research, and scientists will benefit because
the stakeholder needs provide justification and
urgency for new and existing programmes and
projects
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We Need to Develop an Integrated, On-going
Arctic Assessment Program

• Overall Goal
• To provide decision-makers and the public with
  relevant, useful, risk-based information
• regarding Arctic climate change and associated
  environmental and socio-economic impacts
• for use in an increasing range of practical
  applications focused on sustaining and enhancing
  Arctic communities, peoples, and ecological
  systems and services.
• Approach Coordinate with the activities of IASC,
  the working groups of the Arctic Council, and
  active research groups and programmes

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The Components of an Integrated Arctic Assessment
ProgramNeed to Focus on

• New Approaches for acquiring insights and
  applying information in the Arctic
• New Information about conditions, people, and
  terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the Arctic
• New Knowledge and Understanding about processes
  and feedbacks affecting the Arctic and
• New Capabilities for preparing for, adapting to,
  and limiting change in the Arctic.

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Building this Integrated On-going Program is the
Challenge We Have, and for which We Need to
Build Support
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