Ozone

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PEAK OIL IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND RENEWABLE
ENERGY
Dr. John Perona Professor of Environmental
Biochemistry University of California, Santa
Barbara
This presentation available at http//www.chem.uc
sb.edu/ coursepages/08winter/123-Perona
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OIL AND THE WEALTH OF NATIONS

• Transportation
• Heating and AC
• Food/fertilizers
• Manufactured products
• .and so on

RL Hirsch, Energy Policy 36, 881 (2008)
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PRICE OF GASOLINE HOW HIGH WILL IT GO?
MAY 20, 2008
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PRICE OF GASOLINE UNREASONABLY HIGH?
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Lines at the filling station first OPEC oil
crisis, 1975
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The White House, 1979
1979 - President Carter installs solar panels on
the White House 1981 - President Reagan declares
morning in America, and takes them down
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• PEAK OIL ARE WE THERE?
• WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
• BURNING FOSSIL FUELS ?
• GLOBAL WARMING
• ENERGY ALTERNATIVES
• WHAT WE NEED TO DO

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KEY FACTS ABOUT PEAK OIL

• Definition When world oil supply reaches its
  highest sustainable output
• DOES NOT mean we are imminently running out of
  oil
• DOES mean that supply will never grow further
• A decline will follow a production plateau (of
  some length)
• Declines vary in different oil-producing regions
  and in individual wells

• OIL IS A NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE
• DEMAND APPEARS INSATIABLE
• AT SOME POINT, SUPPLIES MUST FAIL

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Geological conditions for accumulation of oil and
gas

• OIL and GAS ? Remains of plant and animal matter
  of marine origin
• Trapped in porous rock- water squeezed out as the
  sediment compacts
• Very specific geological structures are required
  to create fields

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How much oil is there?
Hubberts peak geologist M. King Hubbert, in
1950s, correctly predicted a US oil production
peak in 1970
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U.S. NOW DEPENDS ON IMPORTS FOR NEARLY ¾ OF ITS
CRUDE OIL
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USA Lower 48 Oil Discovery and Production
Oil depletion in the US shows a 42 year gap
between peak discovery and peak production. No
new large fields found since early 1980s. As
goes the US, so goes the world?
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PEAK WAS ABOUT 42 YEARS AGO
(1966)
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Worldwide growing gapbetween oil discovery and
production
Green vertical bars depict years where
Discoveries exceeded Production. The red bars
show years where Discoveries were less than
Production Current ratio 4 barrels consumed
for every new barrel of oil found
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(No Transcript)
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Crude Oil Production
EIA Monthly Energy Report
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CHINA! Population 1.3 billion Huge increase in
oil demand
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MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD ARE NOW IN DECLINING
PRODUCTION
European oil production
North American oil production
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INCREASING RELIANCE ON MIDDLE-EAST OIL
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• Its tough to make predictions, especially about
  the future
• -Yogi Berra
• Field-by-field data often unavailable, especially
  from the Middle East
• Clear measured declines (5-20/year) in many
  areas, including
• Alaskan North Slope, Mexico (Cantarell
  field), North Sea
• Some offsetting gains from new fields coming on
  line
• Angola, Brazil, Middle East (?)
• Saudi Arabia promises increased supplies but can
  they deliver?
• Improved oil recovery technology?
• Ramp-up from expensive unconventional oil, as
  prices continue to rise
• Resources reassigned as reserves

Simmons Company International
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A SUMMARY OF PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS
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Unconventional Oil Oil Shale Deposits
Recovery of shale oil requires energy-intensive
processing kerogen heat (ca. 480C) gt
hydrocarbons carbonaceous residue cooling of
hydrocarbons gt shale oil yields about 38
liters of oil/ton
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Canadian Oil Sands
An example of unconventional oil
BEFORE

• Steam injection to gasify
• Methane burned to make steam
• EROEI 32
• North American methane
• production in decline as well

AFTER
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• PEAK OIL ARE WE THERE?
• WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
• BURNING FOSSIL FUELS ?
• GLOBAL WARMING
• ENERGY ALTERNATIVES
• WHAT WE NEED TO DO

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CARBON CYCLE AFFECTED BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
PLANTS
ANIMALS
BEFORE 1780 ? CO2 AT 280 PPM 1780 STEAM ENGINE
INVENTED
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CARBON CYCLE AFFECTED BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
PLANTS
ANIMALS
MINING FOSSIL FUELS, AND BURNING THEM, ADDS MORE
CO2 TO THE ATMOSPHERE
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CO2 levels from 280 ppm to 385 ppm since 1860
Current rate of increase 2 ppm/yr
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ALL FOSSIL FUELS ARE NOT ALIKE
Methane natural gas CH4 C to H ratio
is low ? less CO2 when burned cleanest fossil
fuel
GAS
OIL
Octane typical petroleum hydrocarbon Intermediat
e C to H ratio
COAL

• Typical hydrocarbon found in coal
• Highest C to H ratio
• Produces most CO2 when burned
• Also contains sulfur impurities ? acid rain
• Most environmentally damaging to mine

COAL PRODUCES TWICE AS MUCH CO2 AS GAS
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IPCC 4th assessment report
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2001-2007 Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly (?C)
Base Period 1951-80, Global Mean 0.54
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Long-term temperature trends (from sediment cores)
6C increase since last glaciation gives a
standard to compare effect on habitable surface
with temperature change
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• Tipping Point Definitions
• 1. Tipping Level
• - Climate forcing (greenhouse gas amount)
• reaches a point such that no additional
• forcing is required for large climate
• change and impacts
• 2. Point of No Return
• - Climate system reaches a point with
• unstoppable irreversible climate impacts
• (irreversible on a practical time scale)
• Example disintegration of large ice sheet

Slide from Dr Jim Hansen
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Example of glacier retreat Glacier AX010, Nepal
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Surface Melt on Greenland
Slide from Dr. Jim Hansen
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Arctic Sea-Ice Cover September 2007
Science 318, p. 33 (2007) Annual sea ice
minimum (September) is on a steady decrease
Huge drop in 2007 led to opening of the
Northwest Passage Complete loss in the summer as
early as 2030 ??
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Arctic Change
Future loss of Arctic sea ice could result in a
loss of 2/3 of the world's polar bears within 50
years. Source U.S. Geological Survey
www.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar5Fbears/
Images Sea Ice Claire Parkinson Robert
Taylor Polar Bears Unknown
Slide from Dr. Jim Hansen
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Areas Under Water Four Regions
Greenland icecap melt ? 7 meters (23 feet)
sea-level rise
Slide from Dr Jim Hansen
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Anticipated opening of the arctic ice new
national claims on arctic, eyes on petroleum
development
Drilling rig in the Beaufort Sea
Science 315, 1525-28 (2007)
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LAKE MEAD
Decreased rainfall and freshwater scarcities are
predicted in many parts of the world
Slide from Dr Jim Hansen
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San Joaquin Delta

• REDUCED SNOWPACK
• HIGHER SEA LEVEL
• LESS RAINFALL

CA aqueduct
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• Some Other Impacts
• of Climate Change
• Ocean Acidification
• Bleaching of coral reefs
• Species Extinctions
• Desertification
• Change in length/timing of growing seasons
• Migration of disease vectors into new areas
• Economic costs
• Environmental refugees

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• PEAK OIL ARE WE THERE?
• WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
• BURNING FOSSIL FUELS ?
• GLOBAL WARMING
• ENERGY ALTERNATIVES
• WHAT WE NEED TO DO

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Global primary energy use
1 W 1J/sec ? 14 TW (1 TW 1012 watts)
1 EJ 1018 J
(per year)

• 80 of energy from fossil fuels
• Three-quarters of Renewables are from
  developing countries biomass
• Solar wind together account for less than 1
• It is most likely that developing countries will
  switch from biomass to
• fossil fuels as economies develop

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U.S. AND WORLD COAL SUPPLY
Resource estimated natural occurrence of a
material Reserve subset of the resource
available for current exploitation
World coal reserves have been estimated to
last 200 years at current rate of
extraction Estimates based on analyses done 30
years ago Agreed coal supplies exceed oil
supplies
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COAL CAN BE USED TO PRODUCE LIQUID FUELS
(OIL) BUT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ARE VERY HIGH
Coal-to-Liquids Coalition www.futurecoalfuels.org
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Capture and Geologic Storage of CO2 Avoids
Emissions

• CO2 is scrubbed from the smoke stack emissions
• CO2 is injected deep underground

A Four Step Process
Capture
Compression
Underground Injection
Pipeline Transport
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Promising initial evidence that CCS ispossible,
but projects still at the pilot stage

• Natural analogues
• Oil and gas reservoirs
• CO2 formations
• Industrial analogues
• CO2 EOR
• Natural gas storage
• Liquid waste disposal
• Existing projects
• Sleipner, Off-shore Norway
• Weyburn, Canada
• In Salah, Algeria

20 to 30 Mt/yr are injected for CO2-EOR
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Natural gas as an alternative to oil North
American supplies have peaked
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• LNG- Liquefied natural gas
• Methane is drilled, refined, liquefied at
• a remote site
• The LNG is loaded on double-hulled
• refrigerated tankers and shipped
• The LNG is expanded offshore or onshore,
• and piped to interface with a local gas
• network

1.
3.
2.
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Proposed West Coast LNG terminals for gas
shipped from overseas BHP Billington proposal
for offshore Oxnard at Cabrillo
Port Authorization denied (2007) Why
LNG? Maintains dependence on foreign fossil
fuel Useful as a bridge fuel in the context of
a global plan to convert to renewables?
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BIOFUELS ETHANOL FROM CORN??

• Costs almost as much energy to
• produce as it later yields
• High CO2 emissions corn is
• grown using oil-based fertilizer
• Takes land away from crop use
• sharp increases in food costs

Cellulosic ethanol, as an energy crop on
otherwise-unused land, may make a small but
significant contribution to the future energy mix
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NUCLEAR POWER

• Depends on 235U isotope
• Need enrichment from natural
• source uranium ore
• Estimated supply 30-40 years
• given present US energy use
• Breeder reactors could extend
• supply to 100-300 years, but
• serious safety issues
• Issues waste disposal
• security
• No CO2 from direct energy
• production

Diablo Canyon nuclear reactor
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Wind power
U.S. Great Plains Saudi Arabia of winds
Fastest-growing and cheapest form of renewable
energy More power generated with greater height
and rotor size Very strong potential to provide
large amounts of energy Important connection to
hydrogen economy Couple to nationwide
electricity grid
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Solar thermal electricity

• Various designs are used for concentrating solar
  energy into a receiver.
• Mirrors provide up to 5000-fold concentration of
  photons
• High temperatures are produced
• eg, oil flowing in a closed receiver pipeline is
  heated ?
• heat transfer to steam electrical generator
• Can be coupled to insulated storage systems to
  deal with intermittency
• Dish-engine system is most efficient T up to
  800C
• Still more expensive than fossil fuels

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• Efficiency of solar cell - limitations
• 1/3 of solar photons are in lower-energy IR,
  below the Si band gap energy
• Extra energy in higher-energy photons, above
  band gap, is not used
• Some photons are absorbed by the surrounding
  material of the cell
• Best achievable is about 28 efficiency with very
  pure Si
• Amorphous Si is much less efficient, but cheaper

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Hydrogen Economy
16 May 1937 Lakehurst, NJ Hindenberg H2
explosion
POSSIBLE H2 INFRASTRUCTURES
H2 fuel cells in vehicles
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• What we have done so far
• (Energy Policy Bills of 2005, 2007)
• Increase in CAFÉ standards (small)
• Bioethanol mandate (problematic)
• Daylight Savings Time change
• Small incentives for renewables
• Larger incentives for clean coal,
• Gulf of Mexico oil, nuclear
• Failed to cut oil/gas industry subsidies
• Failed to mandate 15 renewables
• standard for electric power generation

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Should we lift the ban on offshore oil drilling?

• Provides 28 months of oil for US
• Not available for 15 years
• Hidden assumption we will
• still be heavily dependent on
• fossil fuels in 15 years
• What if we are not? We dont need
• to be! (dirty little secret)
• Large scale wind and solar
• development!
• Freezing in the dark if wind/solar
• are slow to develop? Not likely!
• Canadian oil sands, already
• being developed, have 20-40 times
• more oil than this offshore reserve

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The Hydrocarbon Age
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Websites with information on peak oil
www.theoildrum.com www.peakoil.net (ASPO
site) www.simmonsco-intl.com Websites devoted to
climate change www.columbia.edu/jeh1 www.ipcc.ch
www.aip.org/history/climate International
Energy Agency (Includes the Oil Market
Report) www.iea.gov Energy Information
Administration (U.S. Govt. Energy
Statistics) www.eia.doe.gov